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Though December series has seen market bouncing back by 5.21%, Nifty future is entering New Year
2011 with very less open interest. Rollover in NIFTY (61.20%) has been less in terms of percentage as
well as absolute open interest. This reduction in positions is not due to major change in view of bulls or
bears, it’s due to lack of volatility in the market. Initial activity in options in January series is scattered,
except 6000 put has added substantial OI. Market wide rollover is 81.13%.
FIIs’ activity in middle of the series was slightly muted but they covered substantial short positions in
index futures in fag end of December series along with cash base buying.
BANKNIFTY (75.74%) contrary to Nifty has shown high rollovers and has been underperformer
indicating short positions getting rolled over in this underlying.
Banking and Financials
SBIN (79.43%) has witnessed high rollovers
indicating short positions of last series have been
rolled over. Stock has been consolidating around
2700-2750 levels. Forming fresh shorts not
advisable till this level holds.
Financials like INDIAINFO (92.33%) and IFCI
(90.23%) have shown maximum rollovers while
midcap banks like IOB (43.40%), ALBK (62.78%)
and UNIONBANK (63.83%) have shown less
rollover.
KOTAKBANK (76.34%) has added decent OI in
last series while price movement was not volatile
but was with negative bias. Previous resistance
zone of 430-440 may now act as support. Buy on
dips strategy should be adopted in this counter.
Auto and Auto Ancillary
ASHOKLEY (86.97%) rollover is high both ways in
terms of open interest and percentage; mainly
short positions got rolled over. Short covering
bounce is likely in the stock.
Some profit booking from higher levels is
witnessed in TATAMOTORS (80.28%). Though
rollover is in line with average, we expect some
correction due to further long unwinding.
Among midcaps, BHARATFORG (90.10%) and
ESCORTS (78.61%) are showing some long
formations with good amount of rollover.
Positional traders can use buy on dips strategy.
HEROHONDA (77.13%) rollover is higher in terms
of absolute open interest, while M&M (79.11%)
and MARUTI (82.08%) have shed OI.
Oil and Gas
In related space, GTOFFSHORE (96.35%) has
shown highest rollover. Counter in the broader
range of 360-410. Rise in crude and after
prolonged consolidation stock is poised for further
upside.
GAIL (58.86%) witnessed least rollover in this
sector. Trading near all time high and its strong
resistance zone of 515-520, we suggest squaring
off long positions in this counter.
Rollovers in RELIANCE (82.28%) and ONGC
(77.67%) were more or less in line with averages
and their range bound movement may continue in
coming series too.
Metal & Mining
TATASTEEL (85.38%) in last series first witnessed
short covering sub 600 levels and now seeing fresh
formation of longs as it consolidates in the
resistance zone of 660-680. Counter may move
above this resistance level in coming series.
Maximum rollover in this space was in
NATIONALUM (87.46%) and least was in
JINDALSTEL (60.81%). JINDALSTEL may continue
to gain and may reach its resistance of 755-760
level; move above that also quite likely.
STER (69.53%) and HINDZINC (86.80%) have
added significant long positions in this space and
rollovers in them have been above their 3-month
averages.
Information Technology
Big out performer, the sector has significant long
positions and most of the stocks have strong
rollover.
WIPRO (58.52%) rollover is less against average of
75.74%. Stock has strong resistance around `500.
Participants who have long positions can book
some profit in it.
INFOSYSTCH (76.29%) and TCS (68.77%) both
have strong rollover over in terms of open interest
and percentage as well. Further upside can be
expected.
MOSERBAER (87.09%), POLARIS (87.61%), PATNI
(92.36%) and TECHM (88.69%) have high rollover
in percentage, though OI has reduced.
Power
SUZLON (93.55%) has witnessed highest rollover
in power related space. Significant short covering
took place between 50-52 levels. 58-60 is strong
resistance zone. Fresh longs along with short
covering above this resistance zone quite likely.
One of the major index outperformer in December
series, NTPC (70.88%) has seen less rollover and
reduction of open interest indicating shorts have
not rolled over. Move above 210 is unlikely.
NHPC (92.38%) has rolled over most of the short
positions and has been underperformer. 27-28 is
strong support zone. Short covering may take the
counter above 30 levels.
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