07 November 2010

Bajaj Auto:Oct’10 volumes: Record sales :Standard Chartered

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Oct’10 volumes: Record sales reported in 2W
and 3W segments


Bajaj Auto reported the highest-ever monthly sales of
370,816 units, up 32.2% yoy and 5.1% mom. Motorcycles
also sold the highest-ever number, though lost 200bps
market share to competition. We believe these strong
numbers reflect Bajaj Auto’s strong presence in the
premium and commuter segments. Three wheeler sales
were buoyant and exports remained strong. YTD volume
growth is strong at 51.8% yoy with an estimated residual
growth of 27.2%. Reiterate Outperform.




Highest-ever monthly sales: Bajaj Auto reported the
highest-ever monthly sales of 370,816 units, up 32.2% yoy
and 5.1% mom. The motorcycle segment also reported the
highest-ever sales of 329,776 units, up 32.1% yoy and 4.9%
mom. We believe this is a result of Bajaj Auto’s strong
presence in the premium and commuter segments with
Pulsar selling the highest-ever monthly figure of 94,598
units. Ytd volume growth for BA is strong at 51.8% yoy with
an estimated residual growth of 27.2%.

Three wheelers sales buoyant: 3W segment too reported
the highest-ever sales of 41,040 units, registering a 34.6%
yoy and 7.3 mom growth. Ytd, the company has sold
258,034 units, a 44.2% yoy growth.

Exports remain strong: Exports grew at a strong 31.4%
yoy and 8.3% mom to 110,387 units, crossing the 100,000
units mark for the fifth time in the current fiscal year, totalling
741,618 units till date.

Motorcycle segment loses 200bps in market share:
Volume growth, however, did not translate into market share
gains, given strong competition. Consequently, BA lost
200bps yoy and 210bps mom motorcycle market share
(including only top three players) in October.

Valuation: We value Bajaj Auto at 16x FY12e core earnings, a
15% premium to Hero Honda. We reiterate OUTPERFORM on
the stock with a price target of Rs1,630.

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