29 October 2010

NMDC — 2QFY11 Results As Expected :: Ambit

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RESULT UPDATE
NMDC — 2QFY11 Results As Expected

Headline financial numbers were broadly in line with expectation
Net sales and other operating income was Rs24,600mn, up 77% YoY and marginally down 2% QoQ, and was in line with our expectation. EBITDA (incl. other operating income) was Rs18,404mn, representing a 74.8% margin, and was 7% below our estimate. Reported net profit came in at Rs13,785mn, compared with our forecast of Rs14,551mn.
Production and sales volumes – impacted by heavy rains
Ore production in the quarter was 4.58mt, a drop of 16% YoY and 20% QoQ (unusually heavy rainfall); while sales volume was 5.14mt, a drop of 9% YoY and 20% QoQ.
Realization and profitability
Net sales per tonne sold increased QoQ to Rs4,786 (23% QoQ increase) from Rs3,906, led by increase in the quarterly international ore benchmark rates. Cost per tonne increased, largely on account of higher royalties and selling expenses. EBITDA (incl. other operating income) was Rs3,581/t in 2QFY11, compared with Rs3,181/t in 1QFY11.
Our view: Maintain our SELL recommendation and TP of Rs250
1QFY11 results have been in line with our expectation. We maintain our SELL recommendation on the stock, on account of possible execution delays in project expansion and expensive valuations. On our current FY11E estimates, the stock trades at 10x EV/EBITDA and 16.1x P/E. 

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