INDIAN MONSOON FINAL UPDATE: Rainfall surplus at 2% for season as predicted by IMD; all regions in normal range;
Kharif sowing covers 96.3% of normal area
Kharif sowing covers 96.3% of normal area
- India’s south-west monsoon season (Jun-Sep 2010) ended with overall rainfall surplus of 2%, in line with IMD’s prediction.
- Temporally, rainfall improved dramatically mid-July onwards despite a tepid beginning due to delayed impact of La Nina. The same is expected to help winter rains and retention of soil moisture conditionsimproving outlook for Rabi production as well.
- Spatially, all regions ended the season within normal range. Moreover, 14 sub-divisions reported excess rainfall while another 17 recorded normal rainfall. However, five subdivisions of eastern and north-eastern region remained in the deficient category for almost the entire season with parts of these region facing drought-like situation bringing down the prospects of rice production somewhat.
- IMD has declared retreat of south-west monsoon but predicted continued rainfall in various parts of the country. The extended forecast upto October 5 indicates fairly widespread rainfall would occur over Peninsular India while rainfall activity over northeast India would decrease.
- Significantly, Kharif sowing as on September 23, 2010 has covered 96.3% of normal area sown in the season, 6.9% higher (7.7% for area under foodgrain) over the corresponding 2009. Sowing in rice has also picked up with 7.2% higher acreage than 2009 as on September 23, 2010 but it only comprised 88% of normal area.
- The first Advance Estimate of Agricultural Production has placed FY11 Kharif foodgrains production at 115 million tons (mt) which is 11mt higher than FY10, i.e. 10% increase. However, this is lower than the peaks reached in the last decade viz., 117mt in FY04, 121mt in FY08 and 118mt in FY09. Rice production too is set to increase by 5mt (6%) to 80mt.
RAINFALL UPTO SEPTEMBER 30, 2010 (CUMULATIVE SINCE JUNE 1, 2010) | ||
Actual rainfall (mm) | % Departure from LPA | |
Country as a whole | 912.8 | 2% |
North-West India | 688.2 | 12% |
Central India | 1027.9 | 4% |
South Peninsula | 853.6 | 18% |
East and North-East India | 1175.8 | -18% |
Category | No. of Subdivisions | Range (% Dep from LPA) |
Excess | 14 | 21% to 107% |
Normal | 17 | 17% to -17% |
Deficient | 5 | -22% to -41% |
Scanty | 0 | - |
Total Subdivisions | 36 | 107% to -41% |
PROGRESS OF MONSOON IN RECENT PERIOD (CUMULATIVE SINCE JUNE 1, 2010)
Category | 21-Sep | 22-Sep | 23-Sep | 24-Sep | 25-Sep | 26-Sep | 27-Sep | 28-Sep | 29-Sep | 30-Sep |
Excess | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 |
Normal | 17 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 17 |
Deficient | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Scanty | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Departure from LPA | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
Dispersion in LPA | 113% to -39% | 112% to -39% | 111% to -38% | 110% to -38% | 110% to -38% | 108% to -39% | 108% to -39% | 107% to -40% | 107% to -40% | 107% to -41% |
RAINFALL RECOVERED MID-JULY ONWARDS ON LA NINA CONDITIONS NORMAL RAINFALL IN MOST REGIONS – DEFICIENT EAST AND THE NORTH-EAST
RESULTING IN OVERALL SURPLUS FOR THE SEASON
ONE OF THE BEST RAINFALL IN RECENT YEARS: DISTRIBUTION OF SUB-DIVISIONS
Category | 29.09.2010 | 30.09.2009 | 30.09.2008 | 30.09.2007 | 30.09.2006 | 30.09.2005 | ||||||
Excess | 30% | (70%) | 9% | (41%) | 28% | (76%) | 32% | (72%) | 22% | (59%) | 21% | (72%) |
Normal | 40% | 32% | 48% | 40% | 37% | 51% | ||||||
Deficient | 28% | (30%) | 51% | (59%) | 23% | (24%) | 24% | (28%) | 38% | (41%) | 26% | (28%) |
Scanty | 2% | 8% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 2% | ||||||
No Rain | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||||||
NORMAL/EXCESS RAINFALL IN MOST PLACES EXCEPT GANGETIC PLAIN MONSOON SEASON HAS ENDED IN MOST PLACES
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