Karvy: Important Economic Indicators Oct 11th – Oct 15th, 2010

Important Economic Indicators
Oct 13th (05:20) JN – Machine Orders M/M (Aug) Survey: -3.90%, Prior: 8.80%
The Core Machinery Orders show movements in machinery orders in Japan. The core orders exclude orders for ships and from electric power companies, which tend to be volatile due to their huge size. It is considered as a key indicator of investment. If a large number of machinery orders come out, this may generate a positive sentiment for the JPY. On the other hand, a small number is seen as negative (or bearish).
Oct 13th (14:30) EC – Industrial Production M/M (Aug) Survey: 0.80%, Prior: 0.10%
This indicator will show the volume of production in European factories. Rising industrial production may generate positive sentiments in the market but may also be regarded as inflationary and thus may anticipate interest rates to rise. Overall, we see this data to be positive for the euro.
Oct 13th (18:00) US – Import Price Index M/M (Sep) Survey: -0.20%, Prior: 0.60%
Oct 15th (18:00) US – Consumer Price Index M/M (Sep) Survey: 0.20%, Prior: 0.30%
Import price index informs the changes in the price level of imported products into the U.S. The lower the cost of imported goods, the weaker the effect they will have on inflation, redounding in a higher probability of a rate rise. Another report is also showing consumer prices in the U.S. are rising on lowering pace. The effect of falling prices of imported goods is eventually seen on domestic consumer prices which may rise at lowering pace and therefore, can be seen as positive for the dollar.
Oct 14th (18:00) US – Trade Balance (Aug) Survey: -$44.1B, Prior: -$42.8B
The trade balance is a difference between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is also evident that generates some volatility for the currency. Generally, if a steady demand in exchange for exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the currency. Here, American trade deficit with other countries is expected to widen to $44.1B from $42.8B which can be seen as negative for the USD.


Oct 15th (18:00) US – Advance Retail Sales (Sep) Survey: 0.40%, Prior: 0.40%
Retail sales indicate the total receipts of retail stores. Changes in retail sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Forthcoming report may show a further rise in U.S. retail sales in September. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD.
Oct 15th (18:00) US – Empire Manufacturing (Oct) Survey: 6, Prior: 4.1
This indicator gauges business conditions for New York manufacturers. A higher reading is generally seen as positive for the USD.
Oct 15th (23:30) US – Monthly Budget Statement (Sep) Survey: -$32.0B, Prior: -$46.6B
The Monthly Budget Statement summarizes the financial activities of federal entities. A positive budget statement that receipts exceed budgetary outlays is seen as bullish for the USD. On the other hands, a negative figure (deficit) that indicates government debt is seen as bearish. Here, the data is expected to show a decline in monthly budget deficit which may lessen the negative effect on the USD.