Showing posts with label real estate. Show all posts
Showing posts with label real estate. Show all posts
11 April 2015
09 January 2015
Real Estate: Housing for all by 2022 - big opportunity in small housing :: Kotak Securities
Please Share:: 
Housing for all by 2022—big opportunity in small housing. The Indian government
aims to provide 100 mn new units of primarily affordable housing by 2022 at a cost of
`108 tn. The government would be constrained to reach this goal on its own and
would need to incentivize private players. Private developers, hitherto riding high-end
demand, would have to change their business models to focus on volume rather than
pricing. The spurt in demand from middle- and low-income groups is likely to benefit
housing finance companies significantly
�� India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details ��
Housing for all by 2022—big opportunity in small housing. The Indian government
aims to provide 100 mn new units of primarily affordable housing by 2022 at a cost of
`108 tn. The government would be constrained to reach this goal on its own and
would need to incentivize private players. Private developers, hitherto riding high-end
demand, would have to change their business models to focus on volume rather than
pricing. The spurt in demand from middle- and low-income groups is likely to benefit
housing finance companies significantly
�� India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details ��
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Kotak Sec,
real estate
Real Estate “Housing for all” –one of the top agendas of government… :Q3FY15 Result Preview : ICICI Securities, report
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ICICI Securities,
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Mumbai Ready Reckoner Rates 2015 - Rates continue upward spiral :: HDFC securities
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HDFC Sec,
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08 January 2015
Construction, Ports, Real Estate & Retail 3QFY15E Results Preview ::HDFC Securities
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construction,
HDFC Sec,
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Retail
29 December 2014
Real estate is no substitute for equity :: Business Line
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Business Line,
real estate
25 December 2014
Real Estate: ‘Stick to larger markets, do not experiment’ :: Business Line
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Business Line,
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04 December 2014
Real Estate - Government Notifies Relaxed FDI Norms; Sector Update:: Edelweiss
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Edelweiss,
real estate
26 November 2014
Real Estate : India Commercial Quarterly Trends – 3QCY14 First signs of recovery:: HDFC Sec
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HDFC Sec,
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31 October 2014
Real Estate - FDI Norms Relaxation: Concrete Measures; Sector Update :: Edelweiss report
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Edelweiss,
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08 October 2014
Real Estate - Mumbai Property Expo - Ground Realty: First Signs of Recovery; Sector Update :: Edelweiss, PDF link
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�� India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details ��
We recently attended the property exhibition hosted by the Maharashtra Chamber of Housing Industry (MCHI), at MMRDA grounds, BKC (Mumbai). While developer participation remained tepid, visitor participation at the expo was encouraging, with an increase in end-user interest. However, with majority of the projects on offer up for delivery post 2-3 years, we believe conversions are likely to be slower to pick up. Prices were in a broad range of +5%/-5% over the last year. We believe prices have witnessed a reasonable time-price correction and expect it to be stable in FY15 and increase ~10% in FY16, largely in second half. We expect volumes to exhibit a gradual improvement from mid-H2FY15 in the Mumbai market. Mumbai-based Oberoi Realty (‘BUY’) will benefit from a recovery in the Mumbai market. Oberoi Realty and Bengaluru-based Sobha Developers are our top picks in the real estate space.
End user interest improving; conversions lagging
While developer participation remained subdued, visitor participation at the expo was encouraging. End user interest has improved, while investor interest remains lackluster. However, with majority of the projects on offer up for delivery post 2-3 years, we believe conversions are likely to be slower to pick up. Around 37% of the projects we surveyed were up for delivery in the next 18 months, with the balance expected to be delivered beyond that. Ready possession inventory on offer too has reduced as compared to the previous exhibition in October 2013.
Prices remain stable
Quoted prices of most projects were up 0-5% as compared to last year. Some developers were willing to negotiate for discounts, which we believe could be up to 2-5% of the quoted prices. In projects where the prices have risen, increase was largely due to progress in construction and approvals. Consequently, prices were in a broad range of +5%/-5% over the previous year. Further, discounts and incentives such as waiving off of parking charges, stamp duty, etc., are no longer available. We believe prices have undergone a reasonable time-price correction and expect prices to be stable in FY15 and increase by ~10% in FY16.
�� India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details ��
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Edelweiss,
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28 August 2014
08 February 2014
J.P. Morgan - India Real Estate
| India Real Estate Sample Housing Start Up Index released. No dramatic read-through but could be a game changer longer term | ||
RBI has today launched the Housing Start Up Index taking baseline data from 27 cities from 2009-11. The aim is to first stabilize the methodology and then extend the coverage to 300 cities and eventually improve the frequency to release the data on a frequent (quarterly) basis. Compilation of housing starts has never been done exhaustively, given the presence of multiple authorities at different levels and lack of any methodical approach to collating data. This index, if stabilized, may eventually lead to better policy prescription for the Real Estate sector (10% of GDP and relationship with 250 ancillary industries) which has frequently complained about excessively tight policies and regulations governing it. Also this will give markets likely a better nuanced understanding of the wide variation seen in trends across different cities.
· HSUI could improve policy prescription-RE sector has been very tightly controlled in terms of overall policy and suffers from various procedural delays in granting approvals. An HSUI, by reflecting the data back to relevant government authorities and also making it public, could help reduce approval lags and also reduce lead times on timeliness and extent of measures regarding policy. At the margin we note that regulators have taken a slightly lenient view given the general slowdown, by reducing risk weights and provisioning norms for residential construction lending.
· Data read through confirms long held belief that Tier2 is doing better than metros- the data albeit released with a huge lag confirms the belief that new construction growth has largely been led by Tier 2 cities as opposed to Metros, which in general have seen limited recovery post 2009. Post 2014, however, we think the equation will likely change in the favor of metros as city expansion, localized infrastructure creation will likely create opportunities for suburban growth. Bangalore as of now continues to be the most favored market
Figure 1: Quarterly Housing start up index based on 27 cities data.
Source: RBI
Real Estate
|
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JPMorgan,
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09 October 2013
23 September 2013
Top builders sitting on Rs 58,000-cr inventory :Business Standard
India’s top builders seem to be sitting on a huge unsold real estate inventory, worth nearly Rs 58,000 crore (Rs 580 billion), which could take more than two years to sell, a Business Standard analysis of 19 listed realty firms on the BSE-500 index shows.
At the end of March, the combined unsold inventory of these companies rose 25 per cent from a year earlier. Their net sales remained almost flat during the same period (see chart).
Of the Rs 58,000-crore pile-up, DLF, India’s largest real estate developer, accounted for almost a third. As of March-end, the Delhi-based company reported an inventory worth Rs 17,600 crore (Rs 176 billion), 18 per cent more than that two years earlier.
At the end of March, the combined unsold inventory of these companies rose 25 per cent from a year earlier. Their net sales remained almost flat during the same period (see chart).
Of the Rs 58,000-crore pile-up, DLF, India’s largest real estate developer, accounted for almost a third. As of March-end, the Delhi-based company reported an inventory worth Rs 17,600 crore (Rs 176 billion), 18 per cent more than that two years earlier.
The company’s consolidated net sales declined from Rs 9,561 crore (Rs 95.61 billion) to Rs 7,773 crore (Rs 77.73 billion) during this period.
Following DLF is HDIL, which reported an inventory of Rs 12,043 crore (Rs 120.43 billion) at the end of March this year, more than six times its net sales last financial year.
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Third on the list is Indiabulls Real Estate, with an unsold inventory worth Rs 5,111 crore (Rs 51.11 billion), nearly four times its 2012-13 net sales.
The situation might look even grimmer if the figures for unfinished projects or those under construction (capital work in progress) were to be included. At March-end, the 19 firms in the sample reported Rs 12,300 crore (Rs 123 billion) of capital work in progress.
For the entire sector, the unsold inventory could be many times more, as a majority of developers are not listed. Delhi and the National Capital Region (NCR), for instance, have a little more than 400 builders but only four of those are listed and part of the sample here. In Mumbai, there are around 140,000 unsold apartments priced at an average Rs 1.2 crore (Rs 12 million) each, according to estimates.
The current inventory level is much higher than the optimal eight to 10 months.
The situation might look even grimmer if the figures for unfinished projects or those under construction (capital work in progress) were to be included. At March-end, the 19 firms in the sample reported Rs 12,300 crore (Rs 123 billion) of capital work in progress.
For the entire sector, the unsold inventory could be many times more, as a majority of developers are not listed. Delhi and the National Capital Region (NCR), for instance, have a little more than 400 builders but only four of those are listed and part of the sample here. In Mumbai, there are around 140,000 unsold apartments priced at an average Rs 1.2 crore (Rs 12 million) each, according to estimates.
The current inventory level is much higher than the optimal eight to 10 months.
“Builders need to maintain some inventory to maximise their price realisation. But if that exceeds 12 months, they are forced to borrow to fund their operating expenses. If not unchecked, it could start a spiral of inventory and borrowings,” says Pankaj Kapoor, founder & managing director of real estate consultancy Liases Foras.
This explains the close correspondence between inventory and borrowings in the industry. At the end of the last financial year, the companies in the sample were sitting on combined borrowings of over Rs 51,000 crore (Rs 510 billion).
With the interest rate rising, liquidity drying up and sales slowing, developers could be in for tough times, as they might be forced to generate liquidity, especially in Delhi-NCR and the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR). Industry trackers attribute this to a combination of high real estate prices and poor economic growth.
“Inventory is growing because sales have slowed down. Following a price correction after the 2008 crisis, sales picked up. However, builders escalated the prices nearly 100 per cent by 2010, pulling down the offtake of new properties,” says Kapoor.
He estimates that the inventory in Mumbai could take nearly four years to sell out at the current absorption rate. The only way forward for builders now is to cut prices and create demand. “Price correction is imminent. It has started in NCR and now the trend is creeping into MMR,” he adds.
With the interest rate rising, liquidity drying up and sales slowing, developers could be in for tough times, as they might be forced to generate liquidity, especially in Delhi-NCR and the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR). Industry trackers attribute this to a combination of high real estate prices and poor economic growth.
“Inventory is growing because sales have slowed down. Following a price correction after the 2008 crisis, sales picked up. However, builders escalated the prices nearly 100 per cent by 2010, pulling down the offtake of new properties,” says Kapoor.
He estimates that the inventory in Mumbai could take nearly four years to sell out at the current absorption rate. The only way forward for builders now is to cut prices and create demand. “Price correction is imminent. It has started in NCR and now the trend is creeping into MMR,” he adds.
Sanjay Dutt, Cushman & Wakefield’s executive MD (South Asia), agrees that there could be some price reduction in the next few quarters. “Between now and Gudi Padwa (in April), there will be a price correction of 5-10 per cent in Mumbai, while prices could fall by 10-15 per cent in its suburbs,” he says.
Builders, however, seem to disagree.
“We have an inventory problem but that is not as big as being portrayed. In many cases, this is planned inventory to stagger revenues over a period and optimise per-unit realisations,” says DLF Senior Executive Director Sriram Khattar.
“Inventory will decline through a combination of price correction, reduction in number of new project launches and higher sales,” he adds.
The view is seconded by industry body Credai. Chairman Lalit Kumar Jain says the industry doesn’t have too much of an inventory problem. “Price correction has already happened in most markets and developers are selling at their best price due to liquidity crunch. The market is almost bottoming out,” he adds.
Builders, however, seem to disagree.
“We have an inventory problem but that is not as big as being portrayed. In many cases, this is planned inventory to stagger revenues over a period and optimise per-unit realisations,” says DLF Senior Executive Director Sriram Khattar.
“Inventory will decline through a combination of price correction, reduction in number of new project launches and higher sales,” he adds.
The view is seconded by industry body Credai. Chairman Lalit Kumar Jain says the industry doesn’t have too much of an inventory problem. “Price correction has already happened in most markets and developers are selling at their best price due to liquidity crunch. The market is almost bottoming out,” he adds.
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Business Standard,
real estate
22 July 2013
What PE funds bring to developers :: Business Line
The real estate sector is very capital-intensive and developers have to manage large cash flow mismatches. The long development cycle — starting from acquiring land, planning, getting approvals to start construction to final sale and hand-over — takes three to five years or more, based on the locality.
The cash-strapped developers, who are typically saddled with a large debt burden, are usually on the look-out for new funding sources.
FUND SOURCES
The cheapest source of funds is from banks and institutions such as HDFC and ICICI which offer construction financing at around 15 per cent. NBFC funding ranges anywhere between 18 and 21 per cent, according to Shreekant P Shastry, VP, Strategy and Business Development, Ozone Group. Developers also take private funding with an average interest rate of around 24 per cent.
NEED FOR PE
While the bank rates are lower, they only lend at the construction stage, after all the approvals are obtained.
However, there is a delay of one to two years between purchasing land and getting all the approvals necessary to start building.
This is where PE funds come in, to take care of initial cost of project development, says Bharat Dhuppar, CMO, Omkar Realtors and Developers.
The typical time it takes to close a deal is around three to six months and the typical cost is around 20 per cent. PE funds have lately been expecting 18 to 21 per cent internal rate of return (IRR) and most are in the form of structured debt.
Funds also offer debt funding for project completion to builders in distress. These have a return expectation of 25 to 30 per cent, depending on the risk perceived.
OTHER BENEFITS
The PE funding may also help the builders in other ways. “They bring a sense of financial discipline which is useful,” says Ravindra Pai, MD, Century Real Estate, which raised close to Rs 450 crore equity and Rs 380 crore debt finance from PE funds in the last three years.
Buyers too are comforted to know that the project they are buying is funded by a PE firm, although many do not typically ask about the sources of funding.
Funds provide credibility due to their in-depth due diligence process prior to investment. “PE partnership developments, bring in transparency in terms of licenses, marketability of titles, legal compliance norms, strict adherence to the local, municipal rules, and that in turn, ensures timely completion of the project,” says Shrinivas Rao, CEO-Asia Pacific, Vestian Global.
Some of the PE funds have access to buyers from additional geographies or target group that the builder does not have access to. For instance, Ozone group, which has received entity level and SPV level investments from UIREF (Urban Infrastructure Real Estate fund) and HIREF (HDFC fund) stated that funds provided leads for corporate sales.
“We have been also active in providing management support where needed to improve governance and disclosure levels as well as project monitoring and reporting standards,” says Nitin Goel, Partner, Real Estate Investments at Milestone Capital.
For the PE fund, successful real estate projects generally provide over 20 per cent IRR over a 5-to-7 year period. To achieve this, PE funds and developers work together right from project inception till final exit.
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Business Line,
real estate
05 July 2013
Balance sheet and valuations remain key in an uncertain demand environment for real estate co:: Credit Suisse
The demand environment remains uncertain: Residential
absorption remains muted along with high inventory levels. On the
commercial side, although absolute inventory has dropped
significantly in the past two-and-a-half years, the inventory levels
as a proportion to absorption remain very high. Full report.
The balance sheet becomes important in this environment: We
prefer stocks that have low leverage, which will enable them to
manage a poor demand environment better and buy land parcels, if
attractive.
This, coupled with relative valuations, makes Oberoi our preferred
pick: Among the Indian property names, Oberoi has the strongest
balance sheet (it has net cash), attractive relative valuations (FY14
P/E of 8x, EV/EBITDA of 5x) and reasonable ROE (15% in FY14).
We assume coverage on Oberoi with OUTPERFORM and on DLF
with NEUTRAL: Our target price for Oberoi of Rs275, implying
43% upside, is based on 15% discount to NAV. Our DLF TP of
Rs190 presents 8% upside and is based on a DCF model.
absorption remains muted along with high inventory levels. On the
commercial side, although absolute inventory has dropped
significantly in the past two-and-a-half years, the inventory levels
as a proportion to absorption remain very high. Full report.
The balance sheet becomes important in this environment: We
prefer stocks that have low leverage, which will enable them to
manage a poor demand environment better and buy land parcels, if
attractive.
This, coupled with relative valuations, makes Oberoi our preferred
pick: Among the Indian property names, Oberoi has the strongest
balance sheet (it has net cash), attractive relative valuations (FY14
P/E of 8x, EV/EBITDA of 5x) and reasonable ROE (15% in FY14).
We assume coverage on Oberoi with OUTPERFORM and on DLF
with NEUTRAL: Our target price for Oberoi of Rs275, implying
43% upside, is based on 15% discount to NAV. Our DLF TP of
Rs190 presents 8% upside and is based on a DCF model.
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Credit Suisse,
real estate
04 July 2013
India Property -- Key Trends in Mumbai :: Morgan Stanley Research
India Property
EOTG 38: Key Trends in
Mumbai
What’s going on in the Mumbai property market
–Trend #1: To us, the price gaps between East and
West Mumbai (now narrowed to 10-20%) as well as
North and South (now narrowed to 100%) are bridging
(vs. historically sharp discounts). The recently opened
Purva Mukta Marg (14km Eastern Freeway – 15 minutes
drive from Chembur to CST/South Mumbai), along with
dispersion of office complexes to the north, should help
this trend further. Outer suburban prices remain buoyant
– Goregaon (Rs13k psf), Mulund (Rs11.5k psf), Dahisar
(Rs10k psf) and Thane (Rs9k psf).
Trend #2: We continue to hold our contrarian view of
supply drought in South Central Mumbai over the next
five years. This is already pushing up rentals in ready-tomove-
in apartments (3BHK are quoting at Rs130k pm to
Rs300k pm). Capital values should spike in the next two
years. The often-reported supply glut (15msf plus) is in
early stages of construction; it could take 5-7 years to
get completed (most are 60-80 storeys tall) and appears
to be 20-30% pre-sold (should get sold out in 4-5 years).
Trend #3: Take-up has been brisk for several new
launches over the last 6-9 months from reputed
developers, reasonably priced and well located. This is
underlined by the Phase II launches within 6-9 months of
Phase I at better prices – Crescent Bay (Parel), Blue
Moon (Worli), Emerals Isle (Powai) and Vasant Oasis
(Andheri). Panvel appears to be stagnant – IBREL’s
Green pre-launch of Phase II at Rs5000 psf.
What to do with the stocks: We believe that the
physical market is steady, macro backdrop is mixed, and
latent housing demand in India is significant. We like
reasonably valued stocks of companies that are
executing well on scaling up and have decent balance
sheets. They include Sobha, OBER, Prestige and
IBREL – especially after 25-35% correction. We remain
EW on DLF (earnings pain in F14, uncertain Aman
sales); GPL (subdued core earnings ex capitalized
interest cost) and JIL. OBER and GPL have upcoming
equity issuance in the next three months.
EOTG 38: Key Trends in
Mumbai
What’s going on in the Mumbai property market
–Trend #1: To us, the price gaps between East and
West Mumbai (now narrowed to 10-20%) as well as
North and South (now narrowed to 100%) are bridging
(vs. historically sharp discounts). The recently opened
Purva Mukta Marg (14km Eastern Freeway – 15 minutes
drive from Chembur to CST/South Mumbai), along with
dispersion of office complexes to the north, should help
this trend further. Outer suburban prices remain buoyant
– Goregaon (Rs13k psf), Mulund (Rs11.5k psf), Dahisar
(Rs10k psf) and Thane (Rs9k psf).
Trend #2: We continue to hold our contrarian view of
supply drought in South Central Mumbai over the next
five years. This is already pushing up rentals in ready-tomove-
in apartments (3BHK are quoting at Rs130k pm to
Rs300k pm). Capital values should spike in the next two
years. The often-reported supply glut (15msf plus) is in
early stages of construction; it could take 5-7 years to
get completed (most are 60-80 storeys tall) and appears
to be 20-30% pre-sold (should get sold out in 4-5 years).
Trend #3: Take-up has been brisk for several new
launches over the last 6-9 months from reputed
developers, reasonably priced and well located. This is
underlined by the Phase II launches within 6-9 months of
Phase I at better prices – Crescent Bay (Parel), Blue
Moon (Worli), Emerals Isle (Powai) and Vasant Oasis
(Andheri). Panvel appears to be stagnant – IBREL’s
Green pre-launch of Phase II at Rs5000 psf.
What to do with the stocks: We believe that the
physical market is steady, macro backdrop is mixed, and
latent housing demand in India is significant. We like
reasonably valued stocks of companies that are
executing well on scaling up and have decent balance
sheets. They include Sobha, OBER, Prestige and
IBREL – especially after 25-35% correction. We remain
EW on DLF (earnings pain in F14, uncertain Aman
sales); GPL (subdued core earnings ex capitalized
interest cost) and JIL. OBER and GPL have upcoming
equity issuance in the next three months.
CLICK links to Read MORE reports on:
Morgan Stanley Research,
real estate
02 July 2013
Property-: Balance sheet and valuations remain key in an uncertain demand environment :: Credit Suisse
● The demand environment remains uncertain: Residential
absorption remains muted along with high inventory levels. On the
commercial side, although absolute inventory has dropped
significantly in the past two-and-a-half years, the inventory levels
as a proportion to absorption remain very high. Full report.
● The balance sheet becomes important in this environment: We
prefer stocks that have low leverage, which will enable them to
manage a poor demand environment better and buy land parcels, if
attractive.
● This, coupled with relative valuations, makes Oberoi our preferred
pick: Among the Indian property names, Oberoi has the strongest
balance sheet (it has net cash), attractive relative valuations (FY14
P/E of 8x, EV/EBITDA of 5x) and reasonable ROE (15% in FY14).
● We assume coverage on Oberoi with OUTPERFORM and on DLF
with NEUTRAL: Our target price for Oberoi of Rs275, implying
43% upside, is based on 15% discount to NAV. Our DLF TP of
Rs190 presents 8% upside and is based on a DCF model.
absorption remains muted along with high inventory levels. On the
commercial side, although absolute inventory has dropped
significantly in the past two-and-a-half years, the inventory levels
as a proportion to absorption remain very high. Full report.
● The balance sheet becomes important in this environment: We
prefer stocks that have low leverage, which will enable them to
manage a poor demand environment better and buy land parcels, if
attractive.
● This, coupled with relative valuations, makes Oberoi our preferred
pick: Among the Indian property names, Oberoi has the strongest
balance sheet (it has net cash), attractive relative valuations (FY14
P/E of 8x, EV/EBITDA of 5x) and reasonable ROE (15% in FY14).
● We assume coverage on Oberoi with OUTPERFORM and on DLF
with NEUTRAL: Our target price for Oberoi of Rs275, implying
43% upside, is based on 15% discount to NAV. Our DLF TP of
Rs190 presents 8% upside and is based on a DCF model.
CLICK links to Read MORE reports on:
Credit Suisse,
real estate
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