IRB InvIT Fund: Over subscribe 8.57x, HNI 5.89x; QIB: 10,81x, Grey market premium soars!

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IRB Infrastructure: Traffic growth improves further; construction remains weak ::Kotak Sec, report

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Traffic growth improves further; construction remains weak. IRB reported strong BOT results as traffic growth in its mature projects improved further to 10% (though propelled mainly by Mumbai-Pune). However, this could not cover up for the weakness in construction revenues (flat qoq, adjusted for new-project contribution). Recently commissioned BOT projects remain below target. Our revised SoTP of `230 (`210 earlier) builds in benefits of traffic, discount rate and roll over.

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IRB - Strong traffic volume led growth… :: ICICI Securities, report

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IRB Infrastructure Developers Ltd.|Q2FY15 Result Update | Reported numbers below estimate due to poor performance in construction segment, maintain HOLD with price target of Rs 226/- :: IndiaNivesh

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IRB -Slower execution due to monsoon… :: ICICI Securities,

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Buy IRB INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPERS :: Kotak Sec, PDF report link

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IRB INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPERS LTD
PRICE: RS.241 RECOMMENDATION: BUY
TARGET PRICE: RS.276 FY16E P/E: 12.9X
 We recently met with the management of IRB Infrastructure to get an insight
about industry scenario and developments on key projects.
 Company has recently received letter of award for operation and maintenance
along with additional works on Mumbai-Pune expressway post
completion of its toll collection period from Aug, 2019. It has also
achieved financial closure of its Solapur Yedeshi project.
 We revise our estimates to incorporate recent award win and arrive at a
revised price target of Rs 276 on FY16 estimates (Rs.252 earlier). Based on
adequate upside from the current levels, we upgrade the stock to BUY
(ACCUMULATE earlier)



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Sell call options on IRB Infra :: Business Line

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IRB :: Centrum Technical Recommendations

IMPORTANT RESISTANCE LEVEL : 100
TARGET 1 : 125
TARGET 2 : 178
VIEW CHANGES BELOW : 85
TIMEFRAME : 3/15 months
IRB is trading in a downtrend at the current juncture with stiff resistance or supply region at 95-100. A breach of this
resistance will improve the overall structure as it will indicate a move above its downward sloping trendline and also above
its 55 week moving average both of which are near 100. While the overall oscillator setup and moving average setup is
indicating that an immediate breach of the resistance range may be difficult, once achieved chances of an intermediate and
long term revival will increase and a move towards 125 for intermediate term and 178 for the long term, is likely to open up

IRB Infrastructure Developers: Buy :: Business Line

IRB Infra: Need to cut more debt ::Business Line

IRB Infrastructure Is The Story Over ? :: Philip Capital

IRB Infrastructure reported +14% YoY growth in topline (Rs8.45bn) and +18%
YoY growth in Operating Profit (Rs3.8bn), in‐line with our and consensus
estimates. The numbers however, were better than our and street expectation at
the PAT level (Rs1.21bn, +10% YoY), mainly due to lower than expected interest
expense (FX losses being capitalized and refinancing of debt for Bharuch‐Surat
project). While the EPC division reported robust execution (+18% YoY), traffic
growth at all major projects remained muted. Overall, there were no major
surprises, and the results were along expected lines.

Technicals: BASF, Suzlon, Balrampur Chini, IRB, Gujarat NRE Coke, Alok Ind:: Business Line

Technicals-Castrol, ACC, V-Guard, Tata Teleservices, IRB :: Business Line

Angel Broking - IRB Infrastructure - RU4QFY2012 - Result Updates - PDF link

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IRB Infrastructure - RU4QFY2012

Sizzling Stocks - IRB Infrastructure Developers (Rs 128.7) :Business Line,

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Sizzling Stocks - IRB Infrastructure Developers (Rs 128.7)

 

IRB Infrastructure nose-dived 24 per cent with extraordinary volumes breaking through a key long-term support around Rs 170 last week .

However, the stock is hovering above its next long-term support at Rs 125. As the stock has fallen steeply and its daily indicators and oscillators are featuring in the oversold levels, we do not rule out a near-term corrective rally to Rs 140 and then to Rs 150.

The stock has breached the lower boundary of the daily Bollinger Bands indicating an oversold counter.

The stock's primary trend is down from its August 2010 peak of Rs 312. A strong weekly close below Rs 125 will strengthen its downtrend and drag the stock down to Rs 108 and to Rs 80 in the medium-term. Significant resistances above Rs 150 are pegged at Rs 170 and Rs 190.

Apollo Tyres (Rs 80.5)

Last week Apollo Tyres did a volte-face and plummeted 12.8 per cent. This reversal was triggered by negative divergence in the daily relative strength index and daily moving average convergence divergence indicators.

The stock has breached its 21- and 50-day moving averages and is hovering well below them.

We notice the formation of a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern in the weekly candlestick chart, implying a bearish reversal in trend.

Further, confirming the change in direction, the stock penetrated its intermediate-term up trend-line last Friday.

The stock can fall to Rs 75 in the short-term. Strong tumble below Rs 75 will drag the stock down to Rs 67 and then to Rs 63.5 in the medium-term. Key resistances are positioned at Rs 85, 89 and Rs 94.

Court granted CBI to conduct polygraph test on 10 new suspect including Mr Mhaiskar of IRB Infrastructure Developers Ltd :IFIN

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Court granted CBI to conduct  polygraph test on 10 new suspect including Mr Mhaiskar of IRB Infrastructure Developers Ltd

The court of Additional Sessions Judge S M Shinde on Wednesday granted permission to the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) to conduct polygraph tests on 10 new suspects, including managing director of Ideal Road Builders (IRB) Infrastructure Developers, director of Sable-Waghire company and six personnel of Pune rural police, this week in the RTI activist Satish Shetty murder case.

The police official who will undergo the tests had investigated the case before it was handed over to the CBI. The CBI produced IRB managing director Virendra Dattatray Mhaiskar (40), director of Sable-Waghire Nitin Sable (49), Bhausaheb Andhalkar (55), then police inspector of the local crime branch, and seven other suspects, including an accused, before the court to seek permission for the test.

These names were mentioned by Sandeep Shetty, brother of deceased Satish Shetty, in his FIR. Additional Superintendent of Police (CBI) S P Singh had filed an application, through special public prosecutor Ayub Pathan, for the permission. The other names include Police Inspector Sunil Tonpe (46), Assistant Police Inspector Namdeo Kauthale, Head Constables Ramesh Gabaji Nale and Sahaji Ramchandra Athawale, Police Naik Rajendra Mirghe, retired constable Kailash Labade, all attached to Pune rural police, and arrested accused Shyam Dabhade.

In its application, the CBI stated that it is necessary to subject the 10 new suspects to polygraph tests to unearth larger conspiracy, involving influential persons, behind the January 13, 2010 murder. The judge granted the permission after each of the suspects and the lone accused showed willingness to take the test.

The State Anti-Corruption Bureau (ACB), Pune, on Wednesday filed a case of disproportionate assets (DA) against Andhalkar at Chatuhshrungi police station. According to the ACB, Andhalkar has assets of Rs 1.57 crore which is 95% more than his legal source of income. 

Outlook : We believe this is negative development against the company’s growth prospect since Mr. Virendra Mhaiskar is the key personnel in driving the business. We would keenly watch on the development of the case and its impact on the organization . Presently we had BUY rating on the stock.   We value IRB based on SOTP and maintain our FY12E TP of Rs216. We use DCF to derive NPV of each of the BOT assets

Thanks & Regards,

IRB Infrastructure Developers : Riding on past glory: MSFL research

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IRB Infrastructure, an early entrant in the road development business is the most focussed toll road developer in the country today with presence across two major growth corridors of Mumbai – Gujarat & Mumbai – Pune. However, apart from the Mum-Pune Exp. project we expect the shareholder returns on other projects to remain sub-optimal due to lower than expected traffic growth. We believe there are limited commensurate growth opportunities for IRB in the balance NHDP awards and a highly competitive environment excerbates the situation. Also, we lower our base traffic assumption for Kolhapur project which has impacted our BOT valuation by ` 12. We downgrade our recommendation to Hold with a price target of ` 171.
Challenging to repeat success amidst declining scale of PPP projects & intense competition
NHAI has a planned balance awards program of 18,534kms with an estimated development cost of ` 1365bln. However, in spite of a significantly large opportunity, our analysis, points to reduced attractiveness under PPP mode, for majority of the planned awards. Our analysis suggests that only 6-lane projects under Phase V offer commensurate growth opportunities for large road BOT developers albeit in a highly competitive scenario.
Aggressiveness has always been the characteristic of business strategy
IRB Infrastructure’s Ahmedabad-Vadodara bid, the first of mega highway project bid out in 2011, was perceived to be aggressive stereotyping the company as being aggressive in its bidding strategy. However, we believe that Ahmedabad-Vadodara was not the only ‘aggressive’ bid by IRB, closer look at the Bharuch-Surat & Suart-Dahisar projects corroborates our view of aggressiveness being the underlying of IRB’s business strategy
EPC cashflows support non-dilutive growth
IRB Infra’s order backlog stands at ` 91.2bln. We estimate construction revenue to grow at a CAGR of 23% over FY11-14E mainly driven by projects won in FY10. The total equity requirement for IRB over FY12-15E stands at ` 26.5bln. Higher margins in the EPC division aids FCFE generation and supports equity investment in it’s under construction group projects. We estimate a cumulative equity funding gap of ` 4.8bln for FY12-FY14E.
Valuation
We believe there are limited upside triggers for the company and the current macro scenario also limits any new project win with higher IRR. Factoring delay & a discount to the base traffic in Kolhapur project coupled with lower multiple for EPC division (5x from 7x earlier) we downgrade our recommendation to Hold with a price target of ` 171. Key risks include higher than expected traffic growth across projects & decline in competitive intensity in sector.

IRB Infrastructure Developers: Financial closure of mega project improves visibility – retain Buy :: Goldman Sachs

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IRB Infrastructure Developers (IRBI.BO) Rs169.05
Neutral News Equity Research
Financial closure of mega project improves visibility – retain Buy
News
IRB Infrastructure today announced the financial closure of the Rs 48.8bn
Ahmedabad Vadodara road project. The company has availed a debt of Rs
33bn on the project (including Rs 11bn of foreign currency borrowings) at
10.5% weighted average cost – ECB at Libor + 4.95% and domestic debt at
12.35%. IRB’s equity commitment of Rs 15.8bn into the project would put
its debt-to-equity ratio at 68:32. The company now has financially closed all
projects under development.
Analysis
We view the 10.5% weighted average cost of debt positively vs. our
estimate of 11.5%, but the lower-than-expected leverage increases the
equity requirement by Rs 3bn from our earlier estimate of Rs 12.8bn.
We continue to view this project as being very aggressively bid – the
positive impact of lower borrowing rates counterbalances the surplus
equity requirement – hence we maintain our negative Rs 9 value for the
project.
Implications
We believe the financial closure of this project has reduced the uncertainty
in timing of project execution and also gives better visibility on
construction revenue and toll collection for the company. Our estimates
and target price are unchanged. Our estimates for the construction
segment already incorporate this project into our SOTP valuation.

IRB Infrastructure Stellar show continues – E&C surprise positively BUY ::Emkay

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IRB Infrastructure

Stellar show continues – E&C surprise positively

BUY

CMP: Rs168                                        Target Price: Rs240

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n     Q3FY12 EBITDA at Rs3.4 bn (+16.4% yoy) v/s est Rs 2.97bn led higher E&C rev & mrgn. APAT at Rs 1.24bn (-6.5% yoy ) significantly higher led by lower amortization of Surat Dahisar 

n     Revenues at Rs7.45 bn (+11.5% yoy) - aided by +13% yoy growth in E&C Revenues (Rs5.3 bn vs est of Rs4.0bn) and 18.4%yoy growth in BOT segment to Rs 2.5bn in line

n     Ramp up in execution at Amravati Talegaon & Jaipur Deoli and operating margins surprised positively. Raising rev. projection increasing execution at this project.

n     Construction margins ex-Surat Dahisar remains robust at ~24%. Margin stands revised led by delivered performance in Q3FY12. Maintain BUY with a target price of Rs 240

IRB Infrastructure: Sharp price run up and sedate traffic growth prompt one notch downgrade :: Kotak Securities

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IRB Infrastructure (IRB)
Infrastructure
Sharp price run up and sedate traffic growth prompt one notch downgrade. IRB
posted moderate revenue growth of 11.5% to Rs7.5 bn (in line) as construction slowed
on completion of the Surat-Dahisar project. High depreciation and interest cost led to a
3% yoy decline in net PAT to Rs1.3 bn. Traffic growth seemed sedate with Surat-
Dahisar flat and a decline in Bharuch-Surat due to traffic diversion on the Thane-
Ghodbunder road. Downgrade to ADD on recent outperformance and sedate traffic.