Showing posts with label Way2Wealth. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Way2Wealth. Show all posts
26 July 2015
02 December 2014
Monte Carlo IPO may attract investor interest: Way2Wealth
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IPO,
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13 May 2013
Paper Products Ltd. (PPL) Result Update Q1CY13: Way2Wealth
Key Highlights
Paper Products Ltd. reported its Q1CY13 results recently. Net sales rose by 13.2%
and operating margins remaining stable.
Net sales increased by13. 2 % YOY to `235.2 crs. in Q1. Volumes growth
for the quarter was at 9.5% YOY & 7.8% QOQ. On a consolidated basis
(including its newly acquired Webtech Lables Pvt. Ltd.) grew by 12%
sequentially `254.7 crs. Consolidated topline stood at `254.7 crs. The
topline growth was supported by healthy demand from clients as well as
the phased expansion coming on stream. PPL’s topline growth strategy is
two pronged - growing business from existing clients as while as adding
new clients. The company is witnessing strong demand growth for
packaging coming in from beverages, food processing & personal care
manufacturers. Operating profit was up from `24 crs. to `27.3 crs.
EBIDTA margins were flat YOY at 11.6%. Raw material prices continued
to move up. RM cost was up by 19% vs. a 13% topline growth in implying
inability to pass on full cost escalation. Margins were maintained as new
capacities supported topline growth and kicking in of operating leverage.
On a consolidated basis operating profit was at `31.4 crs. Margins for
the subsidiary improve by 100 bps QOQ to 20.8%. Consolidated OPMs
were at 12.3%.
Net profit for the quarter was up by 16.8% YOY at `15.1crs. in Q1.
PAT margins expanded by 50 bps YOY to 6.4%. Consolidated PAT after
minority interest was at `15.6 crs in Q1 with margins at 6.1%.
Valuation:
We believe PPL’s business model provides a steady growth &
business visibility for investment in such times. At the CMP of
`62.8/- the stock trades at 7.2x its estimated EPS of `8.8 for
CY13E. With overall GDP growth for the economy slowing
down, we believe PPL to be a good value buy in such times and
hence recommend investors to HOLD the stock. A high cash
generating business will enable the company to fund its future
growth plans.
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07 July 2012
Mcleod Russel (India) Ltd: Accumulate: way2wealth
World’s largest tea plantation company with 39,318 ha. dedicated tea plantations spread across
47 tea estates in Assam, 5 in West Bengal, 4 in Vietnam, 5 in Uganda and 1 in Rwanda. Aggregate
production capacity stands at ~100 mn kgs - 82.6mn kgs in India, 4.5mn kg in Vietnam, 15mn kg in
Uganda and 1.7 mn kgs in Rwanda.
Forayed globally with its first acquisition of 100% stake in Phu Ben Co. in Vietnam in 2008, having
a capacity of 4.5 mn kgs . In 2010, Mcleod acquired Rhwenzori Tea Investments Ltd. in Uganda
having a capacity of 15 mn kgs. And the latest acquisition was of 1.7mn kg Gisovu Tea Garden, in
Rwanda in 2011.
Accounts for ~7.8% of India’s total tea production and ~2% of the global tea production.
Industry outperformer
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10 March 2012
Godrej Consumer Products Ltd. (GCPL) Way2Wealth
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GCPL is present in 3 segments namely soaps, household insecticides & hair
colours. In each of these segments the company is a market leader or at
No. 2 position. The company has been continuously investing behind its
brands to gain ground over competition & have created super brands over
the decade. The company’s 3x3 strategy (presence in 3 continents and 3
categories) shows its clear focus to attend to its strengths rather than
diversify into the unknown. Cross synergies from continents will enable
growth across geographies & segments & help the company achieve its
target of 20%+ topline grow for next 3-4 years.
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GCPL is present in 3 segments namely soaps, household insecticides & hair
colours. In each of these segments the company is a market leader or at
No. 2 position. The company has been continuously investing behind its
brands to gain ground over competition & have created super brands over
the decade. The company’s 3x3 strategy (presence in 3 continents and 3
categories) shows its clear focus to attend to its strengths rather than
diversify into the unknown. Cross synergies from continents will enable
growth across geographies & segments & help the company achieve its
target of 20%+ topline grow for next 3-4 years.
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26 October 2011
Sintex Inds ; Target – Rs 180 ::Way2Wealth :: Diwali Picks 2011
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History and Business Model
Sintex Industries Ltd is one of the leading providers of plastics and niche textilerelated
products in India. Sintex is organized into two business segments namely,
textile and plastics. In the textile division, the company manufactures high-value,
yarn-dyed structured fabrics, corduroy and items relating to home textiles. In the
plastic division, the company manufactures storage solutions for water, oil and fuel;
prefabricated structures, monolithic structures, industrial custom moulded products,
consumer custom moulded products and interiors products. Sintex is a leader in
providing building and custom molding products in India and abroad. Sintex has
strong presence in 4 continents and serves many reputed Fortune 500 global as
well as domestic companies.
Financials
The Company has been growing at a steady rate with revenue and profit CAGR of
25% and 24% resp. over FY08-FY11. Over the last year, the building materials
segment was the largest contributor to revenues at 48%. This segment reported a
CAGR growth of 29% over FY08-FY11 primarily based on higher spending on low
cost mass housing, increased Government spending on rural infrastructure, health,
sanitation and education. The monolithic segment contributed 30% to revenues
whereas the prefab segment contributed 14%. Q2FY12 saw a dip in profits Y-o-Y
by 61% due to reported notional MTM loss of Rs59.6crores on FCCBs as the
Rupee weakened against the US Dollar by 9.6% Q-o-Q.
Growth Drivers
• Spending on Housing schemes beneficial for Sintex: The Government of
India has been spending more than Rs 10,000 crores on various housing
schemes to provide housing for poor, low and middle income groups. Sintex is
in a favorable position with respect to attending to the housing needs of low and
middle income groups. As the majority business segments like Prefab and
monolithic construction of Sintex derives more than 70% of its revenues from
social sector government spending and in the near future this spending is not
expected to be reined in; thus Sintex is relatively well protected from any
probable slowdown.
• Strong order book: Sintex has a strong order book of Rs 3000 crores in
monolithic segment to be executed over 2 years.
• International acquisitions to augment its operations: With increasing
synergies between acquired entities the acquisition of six companies in OECD
countries by Sintex is slated to augment its operations. The acquisitions were
carried out to access enhanced technology and tap newer markets as well as
clients for its custom moulding business. We expect this to lead its consolidated
Custom moulding segment to grow at a CAGR of 10.3%.
• Positive Cash Flow: With improvement in its working capital cycle, Sintex has
turned cash flow positive in FY11 after reporting negative cash flow for years.
Reduction in loans and advances and increase in creditor payments resulted in
this turnaround for Sintex. We expect the working capital to further improve due
to better management of inventories and lower loans & advances.
• FCCB redemption on cards: About USD 22.5 crores worth of FCCBs are due
for conversion in March 2013. The primary intention of the fund raising was to
scout for inorganic growth options, but it has used only USD 8 crores to date
and the remaining USD 13.5crores is still intact. We expect Sintex to not
encounter any difficulty in repayment of FCCBs by FY13E with enough cash,
liquid investments and positive free cash flow generation.
Valuations:
At CMP of Rs 116.8, stock trades at PE of 6.3x and 5.3x its FY12E and FY13E
earnings of Rs 18.5 and Rs 22.1 respectively as per Bloomberg estimates. With
strong visibility in top and bottom line due to robust order book and long term
contracts with diversified industries, we believe Sintex is provides a sufficient
upside potential.
Technicals
The rally was unabated since 2009 till it reached Rs 240 levels. However now the
correction has been reasonable enough till 61% retracement of rally at Rs 112
levels which we believe would be held on. One should utilize these levels to initiate
longs for target of Rs 180 & Rs 220.
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Way2Wealth :: Diwali Picks 2011
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Pidilite Industries; Target – Rs 190 ::Way2Wealth :: Diwali Picks 2011
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Company Background and Business Model
Pidilite Industries, promoted by the Parekh family, is an established player in
adhesives and specialty chemicals in India. It has a diversified product portfolio
comprising adhesives, sealants, construction chemicals, paint chemicals, art
materials, industrial resins and organic pigments. The company’s major brands
include Fevicol, Fevikwik, M-Seal and Dr Fixit. The company exports its products to
more than 80 countries. Pidilite derives ~12% of revenues from international
markets. The Company has 14 Overseas subsidiaries (4 direct and 10 step-down)
including those having significant manufacturing and selling operations in USA,
Brazil, Thailand, Dubai, Egypt and Bangladesh.
Financials
The Company has been posting healthy financials over the years as suggested
from 20.6%, 29% and 28% CAGR in net sales, PAT and operating profits between
FY07-11. Its return ratios have historically been healthy. For FY11, it reported
ROCE and ROE of 33% and 32% respectively. However, this takes into account its
investment in international subsidiaries and the Elastomer project. Adjusted for
these, the ROCE and ROE would have been higher.
Investment Argument
• Strong brand equity: Its legacy brand 'Fevicol' is clearly the market leader
holding a 70% market share. The Company has a special knack for creating a
demand for almost non-existent segments which makes them a market leader.
With its excellent branding and marketing techniques, Pidilite products enjoy
the highest branding recall.
• Enjoys strong pricing power: The Company enjoys strong pricing power in
all sub-segments with a market share of over 80% in each. It has been able to
pass on any rise in raw material costs to end-consumers, though after a lag.
• Turnaround in international operations: Pidilite’s international business has
been posting losses due to its low scale of operations. In FY11 international
business reported 12% increase in turnover to Rs 302 cr however EBIDTA
declined by 57% to Rs 4 crore. The company is taking initiatives to revamp
management and increase revenue. Management expects this segment to
start contributing to PAT in FY12.
• Elastomer project coming on stream: The plant was earlier expected to
commence commercial production in March 2010, and its production capacity
was estimated at 25,000tpa. This project was delayed by the economic
slowdown in 2008-09, and is now slated for completion by end-FY12.
Management expects this business to start contributing to earnings from
FY13. So far the company has spent around Rs 300 crore on the project and
another Rs 200 crore will be spent on the project to ensure its stability. The
management expects payback in 4-5 years.
Valuations:
With the extensive distribution network, excellent brand image and introduction of
new products, Pidilite would be able to leverage its strength and cater to the
growing demand from user industries. Its excellent return ratios, low debt: equity
ratio, cash rich status and a good track record of paying consistent & healthy
dividends are some of its financial strengths. The recent fall in crude oil prices
augurs well for the Company as it will reduce its raw material cost and improve the
margins. At the CMP of Rs 158, the stock is quoting at P/E of 20.5x its FY12E EPS
of Rs 7.7.
Technicals
Pidilite is having a history of consolidation and delivering longer rallies after
breakout. Recently the level of Rs 160 where healthy consolidation has taken place
has been taken out. This neckline at Rs 160 has now changed its status from
resistance to support. Considering its history, next leg of rally can take this stock to
new highs. Accumulate around Rs 160 levels for target of Rs 190.
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Way2Wealth :: Diwali Picks 2011
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Nilkamal Plastics; Target – Rs 300 ::Way2Wealth :: Diwali Picks 2011
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Company Background and Business Model
Promoted by Parekh family, Nilkamal is one of the leading companies engaged in
manufacturing injection moulded plastic products. It manufactures and markets
injection moulded plastic products like furniture, material handling equipment &
OEM supplies for specific customers. It has manufacturing facilities at seven
locations across India with a combined production capacity 88,680 MTPA. Nilkamal
operates with 44 regional offices and 77 warehouses situated all across India. It
has wide distribution reach with 77 warehouses; 1,400 distributors; 44 branch &
regional offices. The company exports its products to Europe, US, Middle East, Far
East countries, African countries and Asia.
Financials
After a lull period of FY09, Nilkamal has managed to bounce back with its FY11 net
sales expanding by 21.5% with PAT growing by 11%. Its plastics business suffered
a set-back in FY11 due to high raw material prices which increased by 20% yoy.
Raw Material cost forms a major portion (66% of net sales). With the recent drop in
crude oil prices, margins are expected to improve in the coming quarters with a lag
effect. Going forward, the management expects 15-20% growth in Moulded
Furniture business and a 15% growth in Material Handling business. It is looking at
improving its margin to 14% to 15% in coming years.
Growth Drivers
• Moulded plastics industry is one of the fastest growing industries, increasingly
substituting other materials like wood and penetrating major sectors like
building and construction, transportation etc. We anticipate that the Company
being a market leader and having national presence will benefit immensely
from the India consumption story.
• Nilkamal is the No.1 player in the moulded furniture business with a 38%
market share and is 2.5-3x bigger than the No.2 player. The moulded furniture
business contributes 38% to the total revenue. Its Material Handling business
has a market share of 70% and Nilkamal is a market leader with size 2.5 x
bigger than its closest competitor. It contributes 47% to the total revenues.
• In 2005, Nilkamal has made a successful foray into Life Style furniture
retailing business through its @home retail ventures. It currently operates 17
stores across 12 cities covering an aggregate carpet area of 268,831 sq.ft. It
broke even at the operating level in FY11. The management expects 25%
growth in FY12.
• It plans to enter Monolithic construction business where it senses huge
opportunity as usage of plastics instead of metals is expected to reduce the
construction cost by 20%. Nilkamal does not need a capex for this business.
Margins are more than 15%. Sintex, CCC, Man Infra are some of the players.
• We are comfortable with Nilkamal’s Debt: Equity ratio of 0.83x which has
reduced from 1.54x in FY08. With major capex already undertaken in the last
few years and no major capex planned for the ensuing years, we expect
strong cash accruals and improvement in its working capital going forward.
Valuations:
It is currently trading at P/E of 7.4x based on TTM earnings which is lower than its
peers like Time Technoplast and Supreme Industries which cater to mainly
institutions (characterized by higher EBIDTA margins) as against Nilkamal which
caters to mainly retail segment. Its sound financial structure and improving
operating performance (reducing working capital, increasing sales from @home)
along with a dividend paying history makes Nilkamal a good investment bet.
Technicals
Nilkamal has rallied from Rs 42 to Rs 442 in just eighteen months gaining ten
times. Subsequent ten months of consolidation has given enough leg room for this
stock that too after correcting approximately 50% at Rs 240 levels. We opine that
this stock is now poised to regain the lost ground and continue its upward journey.
Rs 240 would act as strong support, 50% Fibonacci level, while immediate
resistance is at Rs 288 and later Rs 300 would be hurdle.
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Way2Wealth :: Diwali Picks 2011
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Micro Technologies; Target – Rs 180/210 ::Way2Wealth :: Diwali Picks 2011
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Micro Technologies (India) Ltd. is an IT based company, a leading global developer,
manufacturer and marketer of security devices for its clients across the globe. It has
earned reputation for providing leading security solutions in India and overseas in
the space of Vehicle, Home, Mobile and Premises and continues to successfully
partner with key world players from countries like Israel, Japan, Belgium.
Financials
Over FY08-11, net sales have grown at CAGR of 47% while PAT has grown at
CAGR of 12.7% over the same period. The slower PAT growth was mainly due to
higher capex requirement during these years resulted higher borrowing and thus
higher outflow on interest expense. We forecast 22.6% CAGR growth in revenues
for FY11-FY13E period, EBIDTA is expected to expand by 19.1% CAGR while
margins are expected to decline by 167 basis points over FY11-FY13E due to
higher overall expenditure towards investments in R&D and enhancement of its
marketing network. PAT is expected to grow by 19.8% CAGR over this period with
PAT margins in the range of 12-12.5% over the period.
Growth Drivers
• First mover advantage: Microtech entered the security market prior to it
being considered or perceived a major market. Its focus on innovation will help
Microtech maintain its first mover advantage in the market.
• Range of product offerings: The Company offers a wide range of security
products, messaging products and other web based and non web based
products. The Company is engaged in developing products along with offering
corporate specific, customised solutions. It has currently more than 300
products in its basket of offerings with prices ranging from Rs 99 to Rs 16,500.
• Increase in contribution of new products: The Company launched five new
products in FY11 namely Micro ABB, Micro Antivirus, Micro Video Analytics,
Micro VBB Bluetooth +Security and Micro FMS. New products contribute
~25% to the total revenue, over the past 1-3 years; this is expected to increase
on gaining market acceptance. Some of the upcoming products are Secure
Communication terminal, ATM black box and Health Segment.
• Geographical expansion of product offerings: Microtech intends to further
expand the client base for its product offerings. It is already offering its
products in more than 20 countries and plans to further increase its reach.
• Strategic Alliances: The Company has strategic alliances with Siemens,
Girvan Institute of Technology and ARAI. It uses Siemens technology in its
products under a technological tie-up. It has tied up with ARAI for development
and testing of Micro VBB to meet national and international requirements.
• Expansion of ‘Micro Shoppe’: Microtech established chain of outlets called
'Micro Shoppe' are franchisee owned shops which only sell the Company's
products in accordance with set guidelines and standards set by the Company.
Currently, the Company has 201 retail outlets and it intends to increase this
number to 350 in next two years.
• Increase in demand of security products: Security products market size in
India is estimated at USD 50 crores & is growing at about 38% annually with
potential to reach USD 970 crores by 2016. Share of organised players
comprises of only 20% of the market, though it accounts for 80% of the total
revenue generated. Hence there is huge scope for organised player to grab a
higher market share.
Valuations:
At CMP of Rs 131.4, stock trades at PE of 2.2x and 1.9x its FY12E and FY13E
earnings of Rs 61.1 and 68.5 respectively. We see tremendous scope for
Microtech being the first mover in this immensely attractive Indian electronic
security industry as it has huge scope being still under-penetrated.
Technicals
After secular fall during 08-09, this scrip has barely managed to retraced 50% level
till Rs 220. Now it is hovering at multiple support zone of near Rs 100. During this
consolidation it is forming small inverse head & shoulder pattern which can push
the scrip towards 38% retracement levels around Rs 180 /220.
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Way2Wealth :: Diwali Picks 2011
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Innoventive Industries ; Target – Rs 120 ::Way2Wealth :: Diwali Picks 2011
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
History and Business Model
Innoventive Industries Ltd (IIL) is a multi-product company catering to applications in
diverse sectors such as automobile, boiler & heat exchangers, energy, oil and general
engineering. The company specializes in processing various types of steel, faster
development cycles, flexible production systems, effective supply chain management
for efficient delivery and capability to make tubular transformations. They have six
manufacturing facilities located across Pune and Silvassa. The focus on R&D and
innovation has enabled IIL to make its manufacturing process more efficient and
widen its product range. IIL is increasing its capacity to expand the portfolio of its
value-added products, including CEW tubes, membrane strips, etc.
Financials
For the year FY11, net sales of Rs 703.6 crores was reported, i.e. a Y-o-Y increase of
67%. Net profit increased to Rs 68crores over Rs 31crores reported in FY10, an
increase of 124%. Net sales Q1FY12 grew by 26% at Rs 137 crores against Rs 108.7
crores in Q1FY11. IIL is expected to grow at earnings CAGR of 36% over FY11-14E
supported by broad product offerings led by constant innovation.
Growth Drivers
• Cost Effective CEW Process to drive revenues and margins: IIL makes cold
drawn electrically welded (CEW) tubes out of electric resistance welded (ERW)
tubes using the pilgering process. This is more cost effective as this process
enables manufacture of tubes of different sizes in a shorter time with better surface
finish and mechanical properties; it also results in reduced material wastage (7%
reduction) energy savings of 80% and labour saving (70%) without compromising
on quality. The company has sought to patent this process of pilgering technology
(of converting ERW tubes into CEW) to maintain its competitive advantage.
• Capacity Expansion to drive growth: IIL is also expanding its CEW capacity by
end of FY12 from 28,785 tonnes in FY11 to 76,701 tonnes. The enhanced capacity
would result in increasing contribution from CEW to the total revenues over next 2-3
years from 23% in FY11. Cost of this expansion is estimated at Rs 180 crores and
will be funded through internal accruals as well as through IPO proceeds.
• Strong focus on R&D and new product development: The focus on R&D and
innovation has enabled IIL to make its manufacturing process more efficient as well
as widen its product offerings. This poses as one of the differentiation factor over its
peers. It spent 2.3% of its revenues as R&D expenses in FY11. It has 122 products
under various stages of development and commercialization. IIL has been able to
scale up rapidly due to its cost-competitive products and constant introduction of
new product offerings, enabling it to broaden the customer base.
• OCTG segment: IIL’s subsidiary Sankalp Forging (IIL owns 51%) makes oil
couplings and pup joints. Sankalp has obtained API approvals, a prerequisite to
supply to all oil majors globally. Sankalp now also caters to original equipment
manufacturers (OEMs) and oil majors directly. It has also diversified its markets
geographically.
• Fiscal Benefits granted to drive up margins: IIL’s plant at Pimple Jagtap has
been granted ‘Mega Project’ status by the Government of Maharashtra under the
‘Package Scheme of Incentives 2007’. Under this IIL will be eligible for ‘Industrial
Promotion Subsidy’ equivalent to 75% of eligible investments in the plant, less the
varied benefits accrued by the company under the scheme. The total investments
made already by IIL is to the tune of Rs 260 crores of which Rs 94 crores have been
sanctioned as eligible investments to date, while the balance is in the process of
validation. This would impact the operating profits and cashflows positively.
Valuations:
At CMP of Rs 91.8, stock trades at PE of 6.9x and 4.9x its FY12E and FY13E
earnings of Rs 13.4 and Rs18.7 respectively as per Bloomberg estimates. With its
competitive advantage in CEW, huge expansion of its capacity and its focus on value
added products, we believe IIL is well placed to ride on sustained growth and
profitability.
Technicals
This scrip is having limited history as it got listed this year itself. However it has been
in broad range of Rs 77-97. Currently it is making an expanded triangle on top of the
channel. For initiating longs, the lower boundary would provide higher margin of
safety. Once we are out of this range, move towards Rs 120 levels seems possible.
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Way2Wealth :: Diwali Picks 2011
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HSIL; Target – Rs 240/280 ::Way2Wealth :: Diwali Picks 2011
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
History and Business Model
HSIL Limited was established in 1960. This was the first Company in India to
manufacture Vitreous China Sanitaryware. HSIL is the market leader of India’s
sanitaryware industry with a significant market share of over 40% of the organised
market. The Hindware brand markets bathroom ceramics, faucets & bath
accessories and is available across the length and breadth of the country
supported by over 1,550 direct dealers and 14,000 sub dealers which is the largest
in the country. Hindware has expanded its product portfolio to include ceramic tiles
recently. HSIL is also the market leader in container glass in South India and
enjoys 70% market share in that geography and the second largest market player
nationally. This division’s caters to soft drink, alcoholic beverages, food processing,
chemical and pharmaceuticals sectors. The company has five manufacturing
facilities in India across Andhra Pradesh (3), Haryana (1) & Rajasthan (1).
Financials
Revenues and profits have grown at a robust rate of 22.6% and 28.7% over FY07-
11 period. The margins have expanded significantly from 14.2% in FY07 to 18% in
FY11. We expect the margins to expand further to ~21% with entry into high value
sanitary and specialty bottles segment. We also expect the RoCE and RoNW to
improve from the current levels.
Growth Drivers
• Strong brand equity: Demand in the Indian sanitary industry is expected to
grow at 15-16% and HSIL is expected to record faster growth. Its strong brand
recall and introduction of new products have continuously helped HSIL to
sustain its leadership position and increase revenue.
• Capex to drive growth: To meet growing demand across divisions, HSIL is
planning to invest Rs 650 crores over FY2011-14E to expand capacities in
Sanitaryware (Rs 200 crore), faucets (Rs 100 crore) and container glass
division (Rs 350 crore). HSIL has successfully raised Rs 150 crore via QIP in
October 2010. Sanitaryware capacity will increase to five million pieces p.a
from the current 2.8 million and the container glass division will increase
capacity to 2.5 billion pieces from 1.8 billion pieces p.a.
• Robust industry scenario: HSIL’s Sanitaryware business would benefit from
growth in the housing sector while growing disposable income in India will
boost demand in industries such as alcohol, beverages, pharma and food
packaging, which will benefit the container glass segment.
• Realisation to improve: It’s expanding product range and reach coupled with
capacity expansion is expected to boost volume growth. Realisation will
improve significantly from changing product mix towards premium range.
• Synergistic acquisition of Garden Polymers: HSIL acquired 100% stake in
Garden polymers (engaged in manufacturing of PET bottles). It has synergies
with HSIL’s Container glass division, which has the same set of customers.
HSIL will be able to offer a wider range of packaging solutions to these
customers post acquisition and aims to grow this subsidiary by over 40%
every year for the next 4-5 years. Garden Polymers’ capacity will be expanded
beyond PET to be able to manufacture PE, PP, HDPE and packaging.
Valuations:
Going forward, the management expects a growth of 30% for building products and
30-32% for glass containers in FY12. The growth will be driven by newer capacity
coming on stream, rise in the share of higher realisation products, increase in
market share, and better product mix. At the CMP of Rs 184, the stock quotes at
P/E of 10x its FY12E earnings and P/BV of 1.8x which is low for a player with
strong brand and leadership position.
Technicals
HSIL is in a secular bull run since 2008 when it has made a low of Rs 20. Very
recently in August it has touched to its life time high of Rs 240. Such a secular run
has not shown any weakness in chart and one can look for any dips in buying this
scrip. Taking help of Fibonacci, around 38% levels of entire move comes at Rs
160, which would be an acceptable entry point for this scrip. We expect this scrip to
continue to post higher highs later.
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Way2Wealth :: Diwali Picks 2011
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Hinduja Ventures;Target – Rs 500 ::Way2Wealth :: Diwali Picks 2011
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
History and Business Model
Hinduja Ventures (HVL) earlier known as Hinduja TMT (name changed after
demerger of ITES and Hutch Sale), is in the business of incubating and nurturing
new business ventures. It currently operates in three major business segments -
Media, Real Estate and Treasury. Media is the company’s principal business
segment whereas real estate business relates to a 47-acre property at Bengaluru
and recently acquired 4.75 acres of land in Hyderabad. The treasury segment
comprises deployment of cash surplus in various avenues. In FY11, HVL invested
at par 8.95 of the equity of the newly formed Hinduja Leyland Finance Ltd, a startup
company engaged in leasing & hire purchase for automotive and capital goods.
It also intends to invest in the power generation sector through Hinduja Energy
India Ltd. Its subsidiary, IndusInd Media and Communications (IMCL) wherein HVL
holds 65.78% shares is the major media cable subsidiary of the Company.
Financials
Operating income has grown at a CAGR of 17.6% over FY08-11 while PAT has
grown at a CAGR of 16% over the same period. The media venture (IMCL) formed
major portion of total income (86%) in FY11 and the balance revenues were from
treasury operations. The media business reported a 24% rise in revenues while
profits grew from Rs 34 crores to Rs 67crores in FY11. In the treasury segment,
the Company booked profit of Rs 39.2 crores during the year.
Growth Drivers
• Among the top 3 MSOs: IMCL remains among the top 3 MSOs in the country
with the distinction of having the highest profitability in the Indian cable TV
industry. It operates under the brand INDIGITAL and INCABLE. It has a pan
India foot print and presence in 28 cities with an estimated reach of around 8.5
million subscribers. It has first mover advantage with established infrastructure
of 10,000 km of hybrid fiber optic network including 2,000 km of underground
fiber optic network.
• Industry growth drivers: Post digitization, the company expects the share of
MSOs to go up to 23% (from 5% earlier) in the total revenue pie which is
currently weighed down by under reporting by LCOs (retention of 80% of the
revenue pie under earlier model).
• Expected increase in ARPU: Mandatory digitization offers opportunity to
expand and grow exponentially as it is expected to pave way for triple-play
and more robust subscription revenues. Additionally, value-added services
such as video on demand (VoD) and pay per view, games, online shopping
and other interactive services will increase the ARPU.
• High dividend yield: It is a consistent dividend payer with payout of 51.8%
during FY11, the yield works out to be 3.8%.
• Vale unlocking potential in IMCL: With the need to raise more capital to
invest in digitization, network up-gradation, acquisition of subscribers & last
mile operators and to launch a new initiative for improving its Broadband
delivery, the Company is considering an option to raise equity by listing IMCL
in stock exchanges.
Valuations:
At CMP of Rs 320, the stock quotes at EV/EBIDTA of 8x its FY11 earnings which is
in line with Den Networks and at discount to Hathway Cables (12x). With value
unlocking potential in its media business and high dividend yield, the stock seems
attractive.
Technicals
HVL is moving in a long range channel with base near Rs 235 levels. This level has
multiple supports in history and would be crucial. The higher end of channel run
towards Rs 500+ levels which is obvious target for all longs which would be
initiated at lower end. Accumulation in this scrip should be done below Rs 300
levels.
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Godrej Properties; Target – Rs 840 ::Way2Wealth :: Diwali Picks 2011
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
History and Business Model
Established in 1991, Godrej Properties which belongs to the Godrej Group is in the
business of real estate development in India. It has presence in 12 cities across
India with 74 million square feet of potential developable area. Its projects span
across residential, commercial and townships developments. GPL has completed
several landmark projects and is currently developing significant projects in twelve
cities across India. GPL has received several recognitions of its processes and
performance which include receiving the ‘Best Business Practices’ award for the
year 2009 and ‘Corporate Governance of the Year, 2008' award from
Accommodation Times.
Financials
For FY11, total income stood at Rs 559 crore an increase of 43% YoY. EBITDA
grew by 28% to Rs. 212 crore. Net profit stood at Rs. 131 crore a growth of 7%
YoY. The company has demonstrated significant growth in the volume of sales and
construction progress achieved for the year. GPL’s total bookings for the year in
terms of the area grew by 132% from 1.38 million sq. ft. in FY2010 to 3.2 million sq.
ft. in FY2011.
Growth Drivers
• Established brand name: Godrej Properties is a part of the Godrej group of
companies, which is one of the leading conglomerates in India. The “Godrej”
brand is has strong brand recall in India due to its long presence in the Indian
market, the diversified businesses in which the Godrej group operates and the
trust that it has developed over 112 years of operations.
• Differentiated business model: The Company follows a joint-development
strategy which is not reliant on holding a large land bank. About 85% of the total
developable area to be sold by Godrej Properties comes under the joint
development model. This model involves entering into development agreements
with the owners of land that are typically entitled to a share in the developed
property or revenues/profits arising from the same or a combination of the two.
This unique model has several advantages namely- Land sourcing through joint
development agreement, de-risking strategy which reduces exposure to land
prices, beneficial in economic downturn and provides economic stability to the
business.
• Deal with Godrej & Boyce value accretive: Godrej Properties signed an
agreement in the first week of Q3 FY 12 with Godrej & Boyce to act as
development manager for future developments on its entire Vikhroli land parcel.
This is a highly value accretive deal for GPL as it will add significant and risk
free cash flow through sharing of 10% of revenue and will create tremendous
long term growth for GPL. The low investment requirement will allow GPL to
remain focused on external growth opportunities.
• Repositioning of Godrej Garden City (GGC), Ahmedabad & Godrej Oasis,
Hyderabad to improve development mix: GGC, Ahmedabad was resized and
repositioned as a predominantly residential development as a result of the
change in Government policy and GPL’s accelerated value creation strategy.
The reduced commercial development at GGC will enable GPL to avoid
substantial low-return investment. Godrej Oasis, Hyderabad project is planned
to be changed from commercial to a residential focused development in line with
market demand and GPL’s business model.
Valuations:
At the CMP, the stock trades at PE of 17.8x its FY13E earnings (Bloomberg). We
derive comfort from the strong brand name and unique business model of the
Company.
Technicals
Godrej Properties has been moving along its primary trendline since beginning.
This has ensured smooth upside for the scrip. It has tested above Rs 800 levels
twice. If we consider it under channel then the upside is tremendous as we are
currently at lower band. The risk reward is favorable to initiate longs. The volumes
have been dull during the down fall, which suggest lack of selling.
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Gitanjali Gems; Target – Rs 480::Way2Wealth :: Diwali Picks 2011
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
History and Business Model
Gitanjali Gems Ltd is one of largest integrated diamond and jewellery
manufacturers and retailers in India. The company is engaged in sourcing of rough
diamonds from primary and secondary suppliers in the international market, cutting
and polishing the rough diamonds for export, manufacturing and selling of
diamonds and other branded and unbranded jewellery. They also manufacturers
and sell diamond and other jewellery through the retail outlets in India.
The company sells their branded jewellery under the name, Nakshatra, Asmi, Gili
and D'Damas. They are having two modern manufacturing facilities located at
Borivali in Mumbai and at the Special Economic Zone in Surat. Further, the
company has two modern jewellery manufacturing facilities at MIDC Andheri,
Mumbai and a facility at the Santacruz Electronic Export Processing Zone in
Mumbai.
Financials
Gitanjali Gems has been growing steady over the years with its net sales and PAT
growing by a CAGR of 28.5% and 37% respectively over FY07-11. Going forward,
the mix will change in favour of high margin jewellery business. Thus EBIDTA is
expected to expand faster in the coming years as focus shifts from low margin
diamond business. The business is characterised by a high working capital owing
to long debtor and inventory days. The situations got worst in due to the current
economic slowdown. However, we expect the inventory situation to improve as the
economic environment improves. Going forward, the management expects top line
to grow 35% in FY12 and EBITDA margins would remain stable.
Growth Drivers
• Retail business to drive growth: Gitanjali expects to increase its retail
presence to 2 million square feet by FY14E, primarily in the domestic outlets
in the next three years. It is expected to grow at 25-30% in the next five years.
• Focus shifting from diamond to jewellery business: Currently jewellery
forms 53% of revenues and balance 47% is diamond. In the coming years,
Gitanjali has planned for increasing contribution from jewellery segment to 65-
70% of total sales of sales by 2014 by consolidating acquisitions and
enhancing rural penetration. Within jewellery, diamond jewellery is 60% of
revenues and 40% is gold jewellery. It is targeting equal mix of gold and
diamond jewellery over next 2-3 years.
• Gitanjali is looking for restructuring its operations for unlocking value. It
has roped in KPMG for the same. It has completed Brand Valuation for nine of
its leading Indian brands. The value of which is pegged at Rs 5584 crores with
Gitanjali, Gili and Nakshatra commanding more than Rs 4200 crores.
• On the Infratech side, the Borivali project is on track for completion in 2013.
The group is expecting additional income of Rs 350 crore as revenues in next
2 years. Besides there are opportunities unlocking from other projects in
Andheri.
Valuations:
At current price of 248, stock is available around 8x its TTM EPS. Historically, there
has been a huge valuation gap between Titan and Gitanjali Gems. With the growth
prospects and restructuring backdrop, we expect the higher multiple for this
company which is one of the leaders in its segment.
Technicals
Gitanjali after making high of Rs 490 in 2008 has hit the floor at Rs 32. The
structural growth in the chart is positive as the current prices are ruling above 61%
Fibonacci retracement level of Rs 308. The zone of Rs 260-300 would be an
accumulating opportunity. The falling volume while moving high is a concern and
hence we suggest accumulating on dips. The sustainability of the mentioned level
would pave way for journey towards all time high levels of Rs 480.
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Educomp Solutions ; Target – Rs 450::Way2Wealth :: Diwali Picks 2011
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
History and Business Model
Established in 1994, Educomp Solutions Ltd is India's largest integrated education
company. They offer education products and solutions for K-12 in the country,
coupled with a large footprint in preschool, vocational and higher education. The
company also has a strong global footprint spanning US, Singapore, Sri Lanka and
Canada and operates through its various subsidiaries, including AuthorGen
Technologies Pvt Ltd, Educomp Learning Hour Pvt Ltd, Learning Internet Inc, USA,
Ask'n'Learn Pte Ltd, Singapore and Savvica Inc in Canada. Their products include
Smart class, a teacher-led content delivery system; Roots to Wings, a pre-school
learning system, and Mathguru.com, an online learning initiative.
Financials
The Company has been growing at a steady rate with revenue and profit CAGR of
68% and 69% resp. over 2008-2011. For the year FY11, net sales of Rs 1351
crores was reported, i.e. a Y-o-Y increase of 30%. Net profit increased to Rs 343.8
crores , an Y-o-Y increase of 22%. Net sales Q1FY12 grew by 28% at Rs 292
crores against Rs 228crores in Q1FY11. It reported PAT at Rs 40crores, an
increase of 9% on Y-o-Y basis. The increase in sales was supported by a growth of
72% by subsidiaries; though they still continue to report a net loss to the tune of Rs
3.5crores in Q1FY12. The subsidiaries reported a growth in sales supported by K-
12 segment. Educomp recorded an addition of 5288 classrooms for Q1FY12. The
company has maintained its FY12E guidance of 40,000-45,000 classroom
additions with a per classroom realization of Rs 0.39-0.4 crores.
Growth Drivers
• Education in India: Education is the biggest expense for the middle class of
India after food and groceries. India has the world’s largest population in the age
group of 0-24 years. Despite this, India reports low rate of enrolment at school
levels which continues to decrease from primary to secondary level education.
The Education services sector of India is expected to grow at a 6%CAGR to
~Rs370000crores by FY13E. The Government’s annual spending of
USD3000crores would facilitate this growth.
• Leading the educational space: Educomp is the leader in most of the
segments it operates in within the highly fragmented Indian education space.
• Smart Class: Educomp Smart Class, a range of interactive digital lessons with
animations and graphics continues to dominate the segment with a significant
share in the face of emerging competition.
• K-12 space: Within the Education space, K-12 is the largest annuity source
though gestation periods are long and Educomp has exhibited strong execution
in K-12 educational space. The management indicated that schools older than 3
years have recorded an attractive ROCE of 35%. Educomp is planning an
aggressive strategy to expand further in the K-12 space by FY13E.
• Pre-School business: India has the world’s largest population in the age group
of 0-24years. Given this demographic profile, Pre-school poses as an attractive
business. Educomp had 220 pre-schools under Roots to Wings and 579
preschools operational under Eurokids.
• Divestment a possibility in future: Educomp has created a good portfolio of
businesses which could provide an opportunity for divestment in the future.
Valuations:
At CMP of Rs 249.9, stock trades at PE of 7.2x and 5.7x its FY12E and FY13E
earnings of Rs 36.7 and Rs44.1 respectively as per Bloomberg estimates. We
maintain a positive outlook on Educomp Solutions. Its wide presence in the number
of schools offers a strong growth potential and opportunity.
Technicals
Once a darling stock, this script has lost more than 80% in last two years. The
secular bear trend in this stock has reached to levels where volume buildup is not
visible. This indicates that the selling interests at these levels are diminishing. The
Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high till lows gives us 38% level at Rs 507
which would be our eventual target. The levels Rs 280 & Rs 450 would provide
some resistance during the upward journey.
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DQ Entertainment; Target – Rs 50/60 ::Way2Wealth :: Diwali Picks 2011
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
History and Business Model
DQ Entertainment (International) Ltd incorporated in 2007 is one of the leading
producers of animation, visual effects, game art and entertainment content for the
Indian as well as global media and entertainment industry. DQE has emerged and
established itself as a major producer of IPs and co-producer of international iconic
brands with high profile partners across Europe, North America & Asia for
Animation for TV, Home Video and Feature Film Markets. DQE has been
recognized as one of the top animation producers worldwide under the Global
Animation industry report, published by Screen Digest. DQ Entertainment has 10
production facilities in India (eight in Hyderabad and one each in Mumbai and
Kolkata) and worldwide third-party sales representatives in Paris, Tokyo and Los
Angeles.
Financials
Most of the revenues (92%) of the company are from television production.
Licensing and distribution activities contributed a meager 5% of revenues, whilst
full motion video and game development contributed 4%. The Company expects
licensing and distribution activities to contribute 35-40% going forward. The
company has high dependence on the European and American geographies. The
business is somewhat seasonal in nature as second half is always better than first
half. Majority of new launches takes place during September-April/May period
which is vacation time for schools. For the year FY11, it posted net sales of Rs 208
crores, a Y-o-Y increase of 18%. Net profit grew to Rs 31crores, a growth of 15%.
Growth Drivers
• Low risk business model with presence across value chain: The
Company has strategically moved upward in the animation value chain. As a
result, they not only continue to receive production revenues generating its
usual production margin, but also acquire rights to earn license revenues.
• Robust Order Book: As of April 01, 2011, the Company has Rs 500 crore of
order pipeline to be executed in next 30 months.
• Diversified client base: DQE has a client base of over 90 companies which
include internationally recognized brands such as the Disney Group,
Nickelodeon, American Greetings, BBC, ZDF-Germany, and NBC Universal.
• Licensing & Distribution to drive growth: The Company has a library of
over 500 hours of international programs for distribution and licensing globally.
It has signed 27 merchandising deals and 30 more are in pipeline.
• Cost advantage vis-Ã -vis global peers: Driven by the need to reduce
protracted development cycles and high labour cost of developing animation
in the West, animation companies are increasingly looking at Asian
destinations such as India due to low labour costs.
• Robust industry prospects: The Indian animation industry, estimated at
US$494 million in 2008, is miniscule as compared to its global counterpart. It
holds huge potential considering rapid advancement of technology, wider
target audience and increasing trend in outsourcing by U.S and Europe
Valuations:
With its low risk business model, robust order book position and comparatively
higher operating margins, DQE seems to be the right bet to capture the growing
Indian animation industry. The Company expects that the next major growth driver
will be licensing and distribution segment that include apparels, toys, etc and we
expect substantial revenue flow from this segment going ahead. At the CMP of Rs
32.5, the stock is available at P/E of 7.4x and P/BV of 0.8x its FY12E. Buy.
Technicals
This scrip has lost more than 70% since the time it has listed. There has been no
looking forward and the downside has been steep. At Rs 35 levels it has shown
some resilience and bounced back till Rs 50. However it has reached to lows again
but the diminishing volume is giving signs of exhaustion from bears. Once it forms
some base near Rs 30 which is its multiple support, it is likely to bounce back
towards Rs 50-60 region.
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Development Credit Bank ; Target – Rs 55 ::Way2Wealth :: Diwali Picks 2011
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History and Business Model
Development Credit Bank (DCB) was founded in 1930 as a co-operative bank by
its promoter – the Aga Khan Fund for Economic Development (AKFED). AKFED
operates as a network of affiliates comprising 90 separate project companies. DCB
was converted into a scheduled commercial bank on 31 May 1995. It has a
distribution network of 82 branches across 28 cities and 140 ATMs (as on
September 30, 2011). It has managed a turnaround in its business over FY08-11.
From retail assets driven (mainly unsecured loans) and wholesale funded bank,
DCB has transformed itself into having a diversified, secured and floating loan
assets and stable low cost liability franchise. The successful restructuring has
improved balance sheet strength and bank’s credibility immensely. It turned
profitable in Q2FY11 (after seven quarters of losses due to higher provisioning);
DCB’s profitability has improved materially in every following quarter.
Financials
DCB has suffered huge losses in the past due to poor asset quality. Its second
revival attempt led by Mr. Murli Natrajan is showing more convincing signs. Over
the years, the bank has shown inconsistent growth in advances with its six-year
CAGR of 12%. In its earlier recovery attempt advances grew by 47% in FY06-08
which got fizzled out in FY08 turmoil. It has been able to maintain its margins at
~2.9% over the past four years despite the falling spreads. In FY11, the bank
managed to improve its NIM to 3.13%. The main reason for the improvement has
been sustenance of a healthy CASA and the asset composition.
Growth Drivers
• It has a very good clientele portfolio. With focus shifting towards SME & retail
portfolio (which are higher yielding portfolio) we believe that the bank will be
able to sustain NIM above 3% which is seen to be on the healthier side.
• Cleaner asset book to help support growth: The GNPA of the bank has
reduced significantly from 11.24% in Q2FY10 to 5.75% in Q2FY12 due to
intense recovery and control on new accretions. The coverage ratio is healthy
at 87.9%. With legacy issues sufficiently addressed, DCB is expected to focus
on growth going forward which had stagnated since FY08.
• Reduction in promoter stake: Following the new banking license draft which
allows 15% holding by promoters, the stake of AKFED is expected to reduce.
DCB is planning to raise money through QIP in FY12 as the feels that this will
be sufficient for them to grow their balance sheet at 20% in FY12E.DCB is
planning to raise capital in the near term which will increase their book value
which augments well for the growth story. Though the RoEs will be impacted
for few quarters, it will be back on track once the balance sheet grows.
• Approval to open new branches: RBI has permitted it to open 10 new
branches after a static branch count of ~80 for nearly two years. This will help
the bank in increasing their CASA base and retail
lending portfolio.
Outlook:
At the CMP, the stock trades at P/Adj. BV of 1.34 which is at a discount to its new
generation banking peers. Going forward it is expected to witness strong earnings
growth on a low base mainly driven by improved operating efficiency, benign
provisioning and lower tax rate (due to unabsorbed losses). Assigning a multiple of
2x to its Adj BV, the target price comes at Rs 64. We recommend a Buy.
Technicals
The stock has been stuck in a range which is having crucial support around Rs 37-
40 levels. The upside would be locked for a while till 38% retracement level
towards of Rs 70. Declining volume activity suggests lack of selling interest at
lower levels. We recommend investing around lower boundary of Rs 37 for a good
upside till Rs 55.
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Cinemax India ; Target – Rs 45/60 ::Way2Wealth :: Diwali Picks 2011
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History and Business Model
Cinemax India Ltd, a part of the Kanakia Group is one of the most prominent
entertainment companies in India. Cinemax India Ltd was incorporated in the year 2002
as Cineline Entertainment (India) Pvt Ltd to carry on the business of building owning and
operating Multiplexes Theatres and entertainment centers. The company is currently
operating in the film exhibition and gaming business. They run one of the largest film
exhibition chains in the country with 118 screens having a capacity of ~29800 seats out
of 35 locations. They also operate in the gaming business under the brand name
'Giggles'. There are four Giggles outlets in the country Eternity Mall, Thane; Eternity
Mall, Nagpur; Iscon Mall, Rajkot and Dev Arc Mall, Ahmedabad.
Financials
The Company has been growing at a steady rate with revenue CAGR of 17% over
2007-2011. The company’s exhibition business was the biggest contributor to the
revenues followed by sale of food and beverages, revenue from advertising and
revenues from gaming segment. For the year FY11, net sales of Rs 216.6 crores was
reported, i.e. a Y-o-Y increase of 13%. Net profit increased to Rs 5.5 crores over a net
Profit of Rs 17crores reported in FY10, a decrease of 68%. Net sales Q1FY12 grew by
29% at Rs 60crores against Rs 46.6crores in Q1FY11. Q1FY12 reported better numbers
after Q4FY11 which was one of the weakest quarters. Occupancy improved from 14% in
Q4FY11 and 22% in Q1FY11 to 26% this quarter. The ATP has declined to Rs 132 from
Rs 139 in Q1FY11. In Q1FY12, Cinemax launched two properties, six screens in New
Delhi with a capacity of 1,116 seats and another four screen property in Bangalore, with
a capacity of 795 seats. The company is expected to report a CAGR growth of 17% over
FY11-FY13E.
Growth Drivers
• High Quality Content expected: After the lull owing to lack of good content available
due to the Cricket World Cup, high quality content releases are expected for FY12 and
FY13E. This in turn would lead to higher footfalls which would translate into better
numbers for the company and enhancing its profitability. Cinemax currently reports an
occupancy rate of 26% and ATP of Rs 132 which would improve with the improvement
in releases.
• Diversified Revenue model: Though the core business of Cinemax has been
exhibition with two main revenue generation streams from sale of tickets and food &
beverages; Cinemax has planned to diversify its business. It has entered into gaming
under the brand name “Giggles”. These outlets are either located within the theatre or
flanking the theatre premise. This would not only ensure more footfalls at the theatre
property but also make room for sales opportunity through cross selling.
• Upcoming properties: It plans to expand its properties by setting up 34 screens with a
total seat capacity of ~6800 in FY12 with majority of the properties opening in H2FY12.
• Plan to expand Gaming Business: The Company plans to expand its gaming
business by setting up few more zones with an average area of 10,000sq ft.
• Shift from Owned to Leased model: Over the last 3-4 years, the Company has
shifted to lease model as against ownership strategy. This asset light strategy is
expected to rein in capital commitment. It incurs a capital cost of Rs 60,000-75,000 per
seat for building the entire set up. This is expected to improve the return ratios.
Valuations:
Based on Bloomberg estimates for FY12 & FY13, at current level of 34.4, stock trades at
PE of 8.5x and 6x respectively. We expect high quality content and entertaining movie
releases in FY12 and FY13. This should place the exhibitor in a good position and
should lead to an improvement in occupancy and ATP. This should in turn improve its
cash flow as well as return ratios. Also the widening of its property portfolio would aid in
increasing its profitability. It provides margin of safety at current levels with the scrip
quoting below its book value.
Technicals
It has been almost two years this stock has not seen light of day. A consistent decline
and multiple halting points gives key support/resistance levels as Rs 25, Rs 45 and Rs
75. Current prices of Rs 34 give an opportunity to go long for a target of Rs 45. Break
beyond which would open doors for a larger up move in this scrip.
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Bajaj Electricals ; Target – Rs 240/300 ::Way2Wealth :: Diwali Picks 2011
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History and Business Model
Bajaj Electricals Ltd is a 68 year old diversified Company with operations in five key
strategic business units, namely, Appliances, Fans, Lighting, Luminaries and E&P.
The Company with its comprehensive product portfolio is present across segments
and various price points with strong presence in ‘value for money’ segment of
consumer durable products. To strengthen its product portfolio, BEL strategically
entered the premium segment through tie- ups with global premium brands. It has
a pan India network of 19 branch offices in addition to distribution base of about
1000, 4000 authorized dealers, over 4,00,000 retail outlets and over 282 Customer
Care centers. The E&P segment has three main divisions namely High- mast &
Street Lighting Division, Special Projects and Transmission Line Towers.
Financials
The Company has been growing at a steady rate with revenue and profit CAGR of
26% and 39% resp. over 2007-2011. The Consumer Durable segment comprising
of fans and appliance is the highest contributor to the revenue pie with 45% share.
The E&P division contributes ~30% while the Lightening division forms 22-24%.
The Q1FY12 results were poor as Consumer Durable business faced unfavorable
market conditions (shorter summer) and its E&P business reporting slower growth
of 2.5% (due to slower execution). The product mix was also unfavorable in
Q1FY12 hurting the profitability along with rise in steel prices. This resulted in
EBIDTA margin decline and a 50% drop in profits. We expect that FY12 as a whole
will see an improvement as E&P division is expected to report normal profits in H2.
Growth Drivers
• Enjoys dominant market share: It enjoys 15-30% market share in various
product categories like Oven Toaster and Griller (30%), Irons (26%) and
Water Heaters (23%). Apart from appliances, BEL is one of the top 3 players
in Fans (16% of organized market), Lighting (8%) and Luminaires (17%).
• E&P business to improve: This division is undergoing clean up exercise
which involves completing all pending projects irrespective of cost escalation
so as the resources will be freed and which could be deployed gainfully going
forward. Target is to reduce the number of projects from 82 to ~ 50 levels.
Management has guided for EBIT margin improving from -6.7% in Q1FY12 to
12.7% by Q4FY12 and FY12 margin at ~8%.
• Ability to maintain margins: Being a market leader in most of the segment it
operates can easily pass on the increase in cost to its consumers. It also
undertakes hedging for its key raw materials which also helps in maintaining
margins in adverse commodity price movement.
• Strong R&D supports new product launches: Due to its strong R&D and
global collaborations, new product introduction is easier at various price
points. It has entered the pressure cooker segment after a gap of 25 years. It
is also planning to foray into water purifier segment and plans to Introduce
Microwave ovens under Morphy Richards in the near future.
• Benefits from outsourcing model: The Company does outsourcing of most
of its manufacturing. It imports 20% of appliances and 5% from China. BEL
has built up a strong base of 200 vendors to outsource its manufacturing jobs.
This approach provides flexibility in operation and competitive pricing.
Outlook:
According to management, the consumer durable business will grow 3x the GDP
growth. The E&P order book is ~Rs 730 crore and is expected to grow to Rs 1100
cr by FY12. Thus, it is poised for strong growth going forward. The 20%+ decline in
share price after poor Q1 results provides a good entry point. P/E is 13.5x
Technicals
This scrip has fallen from its top of Rs 345 and has found support at 61%
retracement levels of Rs 150s. The cyclical downside has upside slop resistance at
Rs 240 levels. After sustaining these levels the upside can be sharp towards Rs
300. However before such move there can be some more time spend around Rs
150 levels which would give chance to accumulate.
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Way2Wealth :: Diwali Picks 2011
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Arshiya International ltd ; Target – Rs 210 ::Way2Wealth :: Diwali Picks 2011
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History and Business Model
Arshiya International Ltd (AIL)is the flagship company of Arshiya group, having a
10 years lineage in logistics. It is a fast emerging end-to-end service and solution
provider in logistics and supply chain management. Arshiya has pioneered the
FTWZ (Free Trade Warehousing Zone) concept in India, with the zones to act as
trading and warehousing hubs for international trade. It has entered into various
verticals such as FTWZs, Domestic Distriparks, Rail Business etc.
Financials
The Company has been growing at a steady rate with revenue and profit CAGR of
35% and 36% resp. over FY07-FY11. For the year FY11, net sales of Rs 821.5
crores was reported, i.e. a Y-o-Y increase of 56%. Net profit decreased to Rs
82crores over a net Profit of Rs 98crores reported in FY10, down by 16%. Net
sales Q1FY12 grew by 26% at Rs 223 crores against Rs 177crores in Q1FY11.
The change in asset capitalization policy of the company has led to a lower interest
expense thus impacting the PAT positively. Mumbai FTWZ’s phase 1, comprising
of 3 warehouses, was operational at a utilization rate of 100% in the entire quarter.
As per company expectations, one warehouse would get added in Q2FY12 and
another 3-4 will get added by FY12 end.
We expect consolidated revenue to grow at a CAGR of 36% over FY11-FY13E
supported by commencement of two FTWZ in FY12, growth in logistics and supply
chain management business, and addition of new rakes leading to expansion of
capacity in rail business.
Growth Drivers
• Complete Logistics Provider: Arshiya has entered into various verticals such
as FTWZs, Domestic Distriparks, Rail Business etc thus presenting itself as a
complete logistics solution provider.
• First mover in FTWZ space in India: Arshiya is pioneering the FTWZ concept
in India, with the zones to act as trading and warehousing hubs for international
trade. The company had taken initiative to develop India’s first FTWZ at Panvel,
Mumbai spanning across 165 acres. It is in process of setting up second FTWZ
at Delhi, followed by Nagpur and two more at South and East. These five
strategically located FTWZs across India will bring about a transformation in
Indian logistics.
• Rail business holds promise: Arshiya currently operates 15 railway rakes and
it plans to expand this capacity to 30 by FY13E. Arshiya has already planned an
investment outlay of Rs 626crores for its Railway Infrastructure projects.
• Distripark business: Arshiya’s first domestic distripark is located at Khurja.
Phase I of Khurja – distripark is expected to commence its operation in Q3FY12
and phase II construction is scheduled towards completion by Q1FY14E. The
location of Khurja (near Delhi) is of strategic importance as it lies at the junction
of the Eastern and Western freight corridors. Arshiya has also planned to set up
four more domestic distriparks on the same lines.
• Synergies between verticals: Its own FTWZs and domestic distriparks will
serve as captive cargo consolidation and aggregation hubs in India’s key
markets providing captive cargo for Arshiya Rail Infrastructure to move between
the infrastructure hubs. On commencement of operations of all the FTWZs, wellconnected
by rail infrastructure, the complete picture of the entire logistics
offerings by the company would get clearer.
Valuations:
At CMP of Rs 159, stock trades at PE of 10.3x and 5.0x its FY12E and FY13E
earnings of Rs 15.4 and Rs 31.6 respectively as per Bloomberg estimates. Arshiya
is the first Indian company to focus on the higher logistics costs in India and work
towards providing a solution for the same by setting up FTWZs. The company is
establishing itself as a complete logistics provider with no notable peer comparison
available. We believe Arshiya is in a sweet spot expect it to provide good
investment opportunity.
Technicals
This scrip has seemingly formed a base near 120-140 zone. It is now having stiff
resistance at 170 and surpassing this will open way till 38% retracement levels of
210 in short term. The drastic fall from top of 360 has been arrested near to 120.
The volume activity at lows provides confidence and activities of new bulls.
Click link below for complete list and other company details
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
History and Business Model
Arshiya International Ltd (AIL)is the flagship company of Arshiya group, having a
10 years lineage in logistics. It is a fast emerging end-to-end service and solution
provider in logistics and supply chain management. Arshiya has pioneered the
FTWZ (Free Trade Warehousing Zone) concept in India, with the zones to act as
trading and warehousing hubs for international trade. It has entered into various
verticals such as FTWZs, Domestic Distriparks, Rail Business etc.
Financials
The Company has been growing at a steady rate with revenue and profit CAGR of
35% and 36% resp. over FY07-FY11. For the year FY11, net sales of Rs 821.5
crores was reported, i.e. a Y-o-Y increase of 56%. Net profit decreased to Rs
82crores over a net Profit of Rs 98crores reported in FY10, down by 16%. Net
sales Q1FY12 grew by 26% at Rs 223 crores against Rs 177crores in Q1FY11.
The change in asset capitalization policy of the company has led to a lower interest
expense thus impacting the PAT positively. Mumbai FTWZ’s phase 1, comprising
of 3 warehouses, was operational at a utilization rate of 100% in the entire quarter.
As per company expectations, one warehouse would get added in Q2FY12 and
another 3-4 will get added by FY12 end.
We expect consolidated revenue to grow at a CAGR of 36% over FY11-FY13E
supported by commencement of two FTWZ in FY12, growth in logistics and supply
chain management business, and addition of new rakes leading to expansion of
capacity in rail business.
Growth Drivers
• Complete Logistics Provider: Arshiya has entered into various verticals such
as FTWZs, Domestic Distriparks, Rail Business etc thus presenting itself as a
complete logistics solution provider.
• First mover in FTWZ space in India: Arshiya is pioneering the FTWZ concept
in India, with the zones to act as trading and warehousing hubs for international
trade. The company had taken initiative to develop India’s first FTWZ at Panvel,
Mumbai spanning across 165 acres. It is in process of setting up second FTWZ
at Delhi, followed by Nagpur and two more at South and East. These five
strategically located FTWZs across India will bring about a transformation in
Indian logistics.
• Rail business holds promise: Arshiya currently operates 15 railway rakes and
it plans to expand this capacity to 30 by FY13E. Arshiya has already planned an
investment outlay of Rs 626crores for its Railway Infrastructure projects.
• Distripark business: Arshiya’s first domestic distripark is located at Khurja.
Phase I of Khurja – distripark is expected to commence its operation in Q3FY12
and phase II construction is scheduled towards completion by Q1FY14E. The
location of Khurja (near Delhi) is of strategic importance as it lies at the junction
of the Eastern and Western freight corridors. Arshiya has also planned to set up
four more domestic distriparks on the same lines.
• Synergies between verticals: Its own FTWZs and domestic distriparks will
serve as captive cargo consolidation and aggregation hubs in India’s key
markets providing captive cargo for Arshiya Rail Infrastructure to move between
the infrastructure hubs. On commencement of operations of all the FTWZs, wellconnected
by rail infrastructure, the complete picture of the entire logistics
offerings by the company would get clearer.
Valuations:
At CMP of Rs 159, stock trades at PE of 10.3x and 5.0x its FY12E and FY13E
earnings of Rs 15.4 and Rs 31.6 respectively as per Bloomberg estimates. Arshiya
is the first Indian company to focus on the higher logistics costs in India and work
towards providing a solution for the same by setting up FTWZs. The company is
establishing itself as a complete logistics provider with no notable peer comparison
available. We believe Arshiya is in a sweet spot expect it to provide good
investment opportunity.
Technicals
This scrip has seemingly formed a base near 120-140 zone. It is now having stiff
resistance at 170 and surpassing this will open way till 38% retracement levels of
210 in short term. The drastic fall from top of 360 has been arrested near to 120.
The volume activity at lows provides confidence and activities of new bulls.
Click link below for complete list and other company details
Way2Wealth :: Diwali Picks 2011
CLICK links to Read MORE reports on:
Arshiya International,
Diwali Muharat,
Way2Wealth
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