SJVN, Tata Global Beverages, Tide Water Oil - Technicals :: Business Line

Please Share::



 

�� India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details ��

SJVN- A miss on the generation front :: Prabhudas Lilladher

! Q4FY13 generation down by 4.6% YoY: SJVN’s reported revenue in FY13 degrew
by 12.7% YoY, as the generation dipped by 10.9% on the back of a 19.5%
YoY dip in water discharge. Units generated in Q4FY13 stood at 605m, down by
4.6% YoY. PAT came in at Rs10.5bn which was flat YoY on account of lower
interest charges. PAF for FY13 was at 105%. Incentives for FY13E were Rs2.5bn,
mainly on account of higher-than-expected UI charges.
! Updates: 1) SJVN has Rs3.5bn outstanding from Delhi, UP and HP SEBs. 2) The
company has chalked out a plan for adding 47.6MWs of wind power for which
the orders are being placed and COD is expected in Q2FY14E. 3) Capital
expenditure outlay for FY14E is Rs9.8bn and CWI is at Rs29bn. 4) Additional ROE
of 1% is not applicable to NJHEP. 5) Cash stands at Rs24bn. 6) Capex on Rampur
till March 2013 stands at Rs24bn out of the envisaged Rs33.5bn. 7) COD of
Rampur 1st Unit is Q3FY14E. 8) MOU target for FY14E stands at 6.8bn units.
! Valuation and Recommendation: Rampur HEP in FY14E and 45MW of wind will
start contributing to FY15E earnings. The generation this year was disappointing.
However, the impact on the stock price would not be material as it provides a
steady state dividend yield play. The stock is trading at 0.9x FY15E. We maintain
‘Accumulate’ on the stock.

SJVN: A miss on the generation front :: Prabhudas Lilladher

! Q3FY13 generation down by 16.1% YoY, flattish PAT: SJVN’s reported revenue
de-grew by 3.3% YoY, as the generation dipped by 16.1% on the back of a 20.5%
YoY dip in water discharge. However, realisation per unit was up by 15.1% YoY,
leading to a lower sales de-growth at Rs3.6bn. PAT came in at Rs1.9bn which
was flat YoY on account of lower interest charges. PAF for the quarter stood at
105% (approx) and for 9MFY13 was at 108%. Incentives for 9MFY13E were
Rs1.2bn, mainly on account of higher-than-expected UI charges.
! FY13E ‐ a lower generation year: The river discharge in October has been lower
on account of snow and thus, in FY13E, the generation will not surpass the MOU
target of 6612MUs in a big way. Also, the incentives on secondary charges will
be lower to that extent. This is as per our expectation (at the beginning of the
year) and hence, there will be no impact on our PAT estimates.
! Updates: SJVN has Rs4bn outstanding from Delhi, UP and HP SEBs. The company
has chalked out plan for adding 47.6MWs of wind power for which the orders
are being placed and COD is expected in Q2FY14E. Capital expenditure outlay for
FY14E is Rs9bn and CWI is at Rs26bn. Additional ROE of 1% is not applicable to
NJHEP. Cash stands at Rs24bn.
! Valuation and Recommendation: Rampur HEP in FY14E will aid FY15E and to
some extent, FY14E earnings as well. The generation this year will be a
dampener on the earnings; however, the impact on the stock price would not be
material as it provides a steady state dividend yield play. The stock is trading at
1x FY14E. We maintain ‘Accumulate’ on the stock.

SJVN The Defensive Bet -Prabhudas Lilladher,

SJVN Ltd: Harnessing Water Power::ValueNotes

Please Share:: India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


SJVN is India’s largest Hydropower generator. SJVN Ltd was incorporated on May 24, 1988 as a joint venture of
the Government of India (GOI) and the Government of Himachal Pradesh (GOHP) to plan, investigate, organize,
execute, operate and maintain Hydro-electric power projects. It was formerly known as Nathpa Jhakri Power
Corporation Limited, The Nathpa Jhakri Hydro – Electric Power Station– NJHPS (1500 MW) was it’s first project