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Motilal Oswal: 100 bagger update 2014

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21st Annual Wealth Creation Study (2011-2016) : Motital Oswal

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Motilal Oswal : diwali muhurat picks

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Motilal Oswal: 2016 Technical picks

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Motilal Oswal: Top 10 Picks for 2016

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Motilal Oswal 20th Annual Wealth Creation Study (2010-2015)

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Motilal Oswal Diwali Picks

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Motilal Oswal Securities Reports on Dabur

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Motilal Oswal Securities Reports on Bank of India

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Motilal Oswal Securities Reports on PVR

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Motilal Oswal: India Strategy Preview: Time to act (PDF link)

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Dish TV India: Buy Target RS 70: Motilal Oswal

 4QFY14 EBITDA below estimates led by higher opex: DITV’s 4QFY14 EBITDA

declined 11% QoQ to INR1.29b (vs estimate of INR1.55b). Subscription revenue

remained flat QoQ at INR5.64b, impacted by lower no of days in the quarter. Opex

grew 6% QoQ on year-end adjustments towards set-top box write-off etc.

 Change in accounting policy boosts reported EBITDA: DITV amended its revenue

recognition policy towards customer premise equipment activated up to March

2012. This resulted in higher revenue/EBITDA by INR370m/INR333m in 4QFY14

(part of reported revenues) but a one-time prior period exceptional loss of

INR1.16b. DITV also changed its accounting policy for activation revenue

recognition which boosted 4QFY14 revenue/EBITDA by INR111/INR100m.

Excluding the EBITDA impact of change in accounting policy and ~INR180m cost

impact due to higher set-top box write-offs, 4QFY14 EBITDA would have been

~INR1.04b as per our estimates. Our FY14 revenue/EBITDA numbers exclude the

impact of prior period items but include the positive impact due to accounting

policy change in activation revenue for the current year (which is recurring item).

 Subscriber momentum strong; ARPU increase to be driven by rate hikes: DITV

added 0.23m net subscribers in 4QFY14, up 3% QoQ despite seasonal weakness.

Management indicated that monthly gross additions have accelerated to

200k/month in the current quarter as compared to ~INR120k/month during FY14.

Announced rate hikes for high-end packs lend visibility to ARPU increase in FY15.

Estimates largely unchanged; maintain Buy

 Our EBITDA and PAT estimates are largely unchanged despite the 4QFY14 miss as

change in accounting policy would boost the FY15/16 revenue by ~INR500m.

 We expect EBTDA growth to rebound from 5% decline in FY14E to 23% CAGR over

FY14-16E led by 10% net subs CAGR, 6% ARPU CAGR, and 350bp EBITDA margin

expansion (primarily content cost leverage).

 DITV trades close to multi-year low valuations with EV/EBITDA of 10.3x FY15 and

7.6x FY16. Maintain Buy with a DCF based target price of INR70/sh (unchanged).

Larsen & Toubro :Integrated player in power segment value chain:: Motilal oswal

Integrated player in power value chain
L&T Power offers turnkey solutions for up to 1GW super critical coal-based
power plants, and has also demonstrated capability of executing BOP packages
for both subcritical and supercritical thermal projects on EPC basis. We believe
that integration in the value chain is the key competitive advantage; also given
the increasing trend of a large number of projects being awarded on EPC basis.

Thermax: Multiple growth drivers :Motilal oswal

Beneficiary offew structural trends
TMX is benefiting from few structural trends: (1) increased energy pricing
(electricity prices up 15-20% over last 18 months) driving demand for energy
efficiency products (2) Hunt for alternative energy and TMX derives ~30% of
revenues from Green products (3) stringent government regulations and
increased environmental concerns (4) currency depreciation is also leading to
increased possibilities of exports (currently at 19% of revenues), etc.