IBN18: Buy; PT Rs130 􀁑 :: UBS India Mid-Cap Premier League - Season 1

Please Share:: India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


IBN18: Buy; PT Rs130
􀁑 IBN18 expects subscription revenues to increase from 11% in FY11 to 20%-
25% over next 2-3 years. This is likely to be driven by Sun18 Media Services
(distribution tie-up with Sun TV), digitalization of analog cable subscribers
and high growth in DTH subscriber base.
􀁑 Viacom18 Motion Pictures (earlier referred to as The Indian Film Company
or TIFC) is likely to contribute c15% to Viacom18’s revenue in FY12.
􀁑 The company expects the business restructuring to complete and the new
shares to get listed in next 3-4 weeks.
􀁑 IBN18 plans to launch AETN-18 - a history channel in India in the next few
months.

IBN18 - High court approves IBN18 restructuring :: Edelweiss

Please Share:: India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


􀂃 IBN18 restructuring receives high court approval
The High Court of Delhi has approved the scheme of arrangement between
Television Eighteen, Network18 Media & Investments, IBN18 Broadcast, and
other group companies and their respective shareholders and creditors. This will
pave the way for creation of two entities 'New' TV18 and 'New' Network18.
Television Eighteen will be de-listed from stock exchanges and shareholders will
be given shares of the two new entities. As per swap ratios announced earlier,
0.68 share of IBN18 and 0.13 share of Network18 will be received against one
Share of TV18. The scheme will come into effect post the statutory processes as
per extant regulations are completed. The effective date will be notified in due
course.

90 days of cricket -World Cup and IPL : Key Media Picks: Edelweiss

Please Share:: India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


Key issues to ponder…
India will witness for the first time World Cup and IPL in the same year
Both are mega events and follow one after the other
90 days of cricket to impact all media companies
Which media segments will gain?
Which media segments will be negatively impacted?
IPL vs. World Cup: Which is better?
What is the ad projection for CY11?
Top picks -Dish TV, Jagran Prakashan, IBN18.

UBS: Buy IBN18 Broadcast - Management meeting takeaways; target Rs130;

Please Share:: India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


UBS Investment Research
IBN18 Broadcast 
Management meeting takeaways 
 
„ Takeaways from meeting with Haresh Chawla (Group CEO, Network18)
1) The distribution partnership with Sun (Sun18) is likely to start contributing to
subscription revenue growth from 1QFY12. 2) IBN18 management plans to
increase the number of hours of original content in its Hindi general entertainment
channel (GEC), ‘Colors’. It currently has ~24 hours/week of original content. 3)
IBN18 plans to launch a few regional entertainment channels in FY12. 4) IBN18
plans to produce or co-produce 6-7 movies in FY12, which is likely to contribute
~10% to Viacom18’s revenue.

Buy IBN18 BROADCAST- Starting to benefit from potential of Colors: Edelweiss

Please Share:: India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


IBN18 BROADCAST
Starting to benefit from potential of Colors


􀂃 Revenue up 22% Y-o-Y, ahead of our estimate
IBN18 Broadcast’s (IBN) Q3FY11 revenues rose 22% Y-o-Y to INR 2,360 mn
(ahead of our estimate of INR 2,166 mn); revenues jumped 25% Q-o-Q. Colors
has retained its strong No.2 position in the GEC space on the back of reality
show Big Boss 4, premiere of Dabangg and fiction shows. MTV and Nick have
maintained their leadership in youth and kids genres, respectively.

Accumulate IBN18: Target Rs 115:: Kotak Sec

Please Share:: India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


IBN 18
RECOMMENDATION: ACCUMULATE
TARGET PRICE: RS.115
FY12E P/E: 43.8X
q IBN 18 has reported a strong set of results for 3QFY11. The results are
well above our estimates, with revenues coming in at Rs 2362mn, and
PAT Rs 155mn, against our estimates of Rs 2079 mn and Rs (75) mn respectively.
Reported financials are the highest in IBN18's history.
q Revenue growth came on the back of high growth in both news operations
(+24% y/y) and entertainment operations (+21%, y/y). News operations
as well as consolidated operations have been EBITDA-positive this
quarter, on the back of strong advertising growth as well as management
of expenses.
q Subscription revenues for the company have continued to account for 10-
11% of total revenues. The release guides for soft growth in subscription
revenues through the remainder of FY11, with strong growth expected
FY12-onwards. We continue to believe that IBN18 shall be able to carve a
space for itself in the distribution revenue pie of broadcasters -with Colors'
competitive position being the key factor to watch.
q We change our estimates to incorporate higher growth in advertising
revenues of the company, as well as higher expenses (on account of programming).
We upgrade FY11E/ FY12E EPS to Rs (0.4)/ Rs 2.3. We raise
our FY12-end price target to Rs 115/ share, and believe that upsides could
exist to our price target if Viacom18 is able to successfully launch a Hindi
movie channel. We retain our ACCUMULATE rating on the stock.

Buy IBN18 Broadcast Strong results; EBITDA growth surprised :: UBS

Please Share:: India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��

UBS Investment Research

IBN18 Broadcast 

Strong results; EBITDA growth surprised 

  

„ EBITDA and net profit ahead of UBS estimates
IBN18 (restructured) reported 3QFY11 results: Revenues grew 20.9% yoy to
Rs3.15bn (UBS-e Rs3.02bn). EBITDA grew 123% yoy to Rs550m (UBS-e
Rs273m); EBITDA margin expanded 800 bps yoy to 17.5%. IBN18 achieved net
profit breakeven in 3QFY11 and reported net profit of Rs310m ahead of UBS-e at
Rs30m and consensus estimates at Rs2m. These numbers include the business
news channels acquired from TV18 as part of business restructuring.

IBN 18- BUY- Revenue up 22% Y-o-Y, ahead of our estimate: Edelweiss

Please Share:: India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


IBN 18- BUY
n Revenue up 22% Y-o-Y, ahead of our estimate
IBN18’s Q3FY11 revenues rose 22% Y-o-Y to INR 2,360 mn (ahead of our estimate of
INR 2,166 mn); revenues jumped 25% Q-o-Q. Colors has retained its strong no.2
position in the GEC space on the back of reality show Big Boss 4, premiere of Dabangg
and its fiction shows. MTV and Nick have maintained their market leadership in the youth
and kids genre respectively. Consequently, Viacom18 posted a 21% revenue growth Y-o-
Y. CNN IBN maintained its le adership position in the general news space with a 30%
market share. Also, there has been a strong ratings growth at IBN7. Y-o-Y revenue
growth for general news and IBN Lokmat stood at 24% and 16% respectively. Q3FY11
revenues for GEC and general news were boosted by festive season related ad spends.
Subscription revenue upside, from SUN18 entering into long term contracts with DTH
companies and cable operators, is expected in FY12.
n EBITDA margin expand 3x Y-o-Y
The company recorded an EBITDA of INR 321 mn (against our estimate of INR 60 mn),
an impressive improvement from INR 80 mn in Q3FY10 and INR 20 mn in Q2FY11.
EBITDA margin in Q3FY11 stood at 13.6% against 4.1% in Q3FY10. Viacom18’s reported
an operating profit of INR 510 mn (against INR 90 mn in Q3FY10) on the back of strong
ad revenue growth. General news operating profit increased to INR 80 mn from INR 55
mn in Q3 FY10 and a loss of INR 70 mn in Q2FY11 as revenues grew 39% Q-o-Q.
n IBN18 records PAT level profitability
In Q3FY11, IBN18 reported a PAT of INR 198 mn against a loss of INR 106 mn in Q3FY10
and a loss of INR 129 mn in Q2FY11.

UBS: Buy IBN18 Broadcast- Growing Colors

Please Share:: India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


UBS Investment Research
IBN18 Broadcast
Growing Colors

􀂄 Initiate coverage with a Buy rating
IBN18 Broadcast (IBN18) operates several TV channels in different genres in
India. IBN18’s joint venture, Viacom18, operates four TV channels: Colors (the
second largest Hindi entertainment channel), MTV, Nickelodean, and VH1. We
initiate coverage with a Buy rating, as we expect IBN18’s subscription revenue to
increase from 12% of total revenue in FY10 to 25% by 2015. Viacom18 plans to
launch a Hindi movie channel in FY12 that should help increase subscription and
advertising revenue. In July 2010, IBN18 acquired business news channels CNBC
TV18 and CNBC Awaaz from TV18.

#BarkhaGate: Media Stock Impact: Bigg Boss = "We, the People" - Review

Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��

BarkhaGate has struck.

Even though conventional media has blacked it out. Its the the #1 trending topic in twitter India. Facebook has a BarkhaGate page with over 320 supporters in almost no time.

Calls to boycott media houses and ask for senior reports to resign. What will the stock impact be for media shares? Please post your views

1. NDTV: 
At the center of the controversy. Shares likely to plunge coming Monday. Do not hold any shares. Sell/ short. Later the week may be a good time to buy again after its fallen a lot.
**Will make NEW 52-WEEK LOW***

2. HT Media
Both Barkha Dutt and Vir Sanghvi have columns in Hindustan Times. HT has distanced itself from these two. Action is likely to be more muted than NDTV. Stay away from stock in near term

3. IBN18
In the news for not telecasting any news and views on the issue. Some tapes of Rajdeep Sardesai also out.Stock likely to be negatively impacted also. Stay away from stock in near term

4. Zee News
Only TV Channel to have news on the scandal!! Kudos to Zee News. This may see rise in TRP near term which will be good for stock

5. TV Today Network Ltd
It posted the transcripts in the India Today website. But no mention in Aaj Tak and Headlines Today. 
Likely to face a negative reaction also. Stay away from the stock



More detailed update coming soon...

IBN18 Broadcast SEL- News business, a drag Rs117 :: ICICI Sec

Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


IBN18 Broadcast SELL
Maintained
News business, a drag Rs117
Reason for report: Q2FY11 results review


IBN18’s Q2FY11 results were in line with expectations as the entertainment
business surprised positively on the revenue front and the news business
negatively, posting higher losses. Viacom18’s revenues grew 36% YoY to Rs2.7bn
and EBITDA stood at Rs220mn. Lack of disclosure on revenue break-up (between
advertising and subscription), which is an industry practice, leaves little scope for
further analysis. The news business continued to drag profitability, posting
Rs109mn EBITDA losses – revenue growth lagged cost escalation. The economics
of general news business continue to be challenging, even for market leaders,
which is worrisome. Business news operations witnessed some traction owing to
heavy primary market calendar. The restructuring of the Network18 group is likely
to get completed by March ’11. We maintain SELL owing to expensive valuations
and poor outlook on news operations.
􀁦 News – Poor performance continues; EBITDA losses increase. Revenues from
news operations – CNN IBN + IBN7 + IBN Lokmat – declined 2.5% QoQ but
increased 31.8% YoY to Rs546mn, lower than our estimates of Rs604mn. EBITDA
losses widened to Rs109mn in Q2FY11 as against Rs96mn loss in Q1FY11. PAT
loss stood at Rs231mn in Q2FY11.
􀁦 Viacom18 – Strong performance. Viacom18’s revenues rose 14.3% QoQ and
36.4% YoY to Rs2.7bn in Q2FY11, largely led by strong ad revenue growth in spite
of a seasonally weak quarter. Viacom18 reported positive EBITDA for the fourth
straight quarter at Rs220mn, implying a margin of 8.1%. We expect both revenues
and costs to rise in Q3FY11 due to festive season demand and high content cost,
led by rise in big–ticket programming and aggressive acquisition of movie rights.
􀁦 TV18 news operations – In line. Revenues rose 5% YoY and 6.3% QoQ to
Rs680mn. EBITDA margin expanded 680bps in Q2FY11 to 30.9% from 24.1% in
Q1FY11. The company reported Rs210mn EBITDA in Q2FY11, an increase of 36%
QoQ. The management has guided that margins will be maintained at ~30% levels in
the next two quarters.

IDFC research: buy IBN18

Viacom18 (a 50:50 JV between IBN18 and Viacom) has made an offer for acquisition of The Indian
Film Company (TIFC), a film fund listed on the AIM Stock Exchange where Network18 owns 80.4%
stake. Viacom18 has valued TIFC at GBP63.6m (or at 115.56 pence per share), which is 1x the total
capital deployed in TIFC. With Viacom18 proposing to launch a movie channel post this acquisition,
IBN18 (or the New TV18) would join the league of larger networks such as Star and ZEE.
􀂉 Details of the transaction:
Valuations – no surprises!
• TIFC is a film fund listed in AIM (current market capitalization of GBP21m), where Network18
owns 77%, Viacom 4.5% and another 3.45% is owned by BK Media (a wholly owned company of
Raghav Bahl). As a part of the restructuring exercise of Network18 Group in July 2010, the
management had indicated likely transfer of their 80.4% stake in TIFC to Viacom18 for an
estimated consideration of GBP50m-55m (thereby entailing a value of ~GBP64m to TIFC).
• On expected lines, Viacom18 has made a bid for TIFC to acquire 80.4% stake (Network 18 + BK
Media ownership) for a consideration of GBP51m and follow it with an open offer for the
remaining ~20% stake. Minority shareholders include HSBC, Altima Partners, Kellusa, etc. The
transaction values TIFC at GBP63.6m (or USD100m).
• In addition, the investment management firm which managed the AUM of TIFC will also be
folded into Viacom18 for a consideration of USD0.5m. The investment manager firm, which is
entitled to 1% of the film funds as management fees (2% earlier), has a 50% ownership of
Network18. There remains ambiguity with regards to the ownership of this management firm as
indeed the need for a separate investment managers.
TIFC – Financial details
• We analyzed the FY10 Annual report of TIFC to understand the proportion of the total capital
deployed in the company which is ‘monetizable’. Of the total BS size of GBP63.6m of TIFC,
GBP45.9m is in the form of movie assets. Of this, GBP30m are related to movies which have been
released over a year back (implying 60% of the cost amortized) and GBP16m relates to movies
currently under production.