Showing posts with label Fairwealth. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fairwealth. Show all posts

11 June 2012

PSU Banks with High Dividend Yield – Worth Investing: Fairwealth



Banking Sector has seen consistent pressure due to series
of monetary measures adopted by RBI to curtail sticky
inflation since March 2010, in turn transmitted by
banking system. This along with global uncertainty
resulted in high interest rates environment, slowing credit
demand, and weak business sentiments in last one year.
The pressure deepened further in last six months on the
back of worsening domestic macro-economic factors.
Concerns over several key parameters like credit growth,
asset quality, profitability etc led many banking stocks to
touch their 52-week low.
Bank Nifty has given negative returns in last one and
three months i.e. 4.49% and 8.02% respectively.


14 January 2012

Fairwealth Investment Ideas 2012

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Fairwealth Investment Ideas 2012

Axis Bank TP: 1350


Ashok Leyland TP: 32

 Bajaj Electricals TP: 241

KPIT Cummins TP: 185

JindalSteel TP: 640

Shasun Pharma TP: 90

SHASUN PHARMA:: Fairwealth Investment Ideas 2012

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SHASUN PHARMA


Shasun Pharma (Shasun) is engaged in manufacturing active pharmaceutical

ingredients (APIs), their intermediates and enteric coating excipients with a

significant presence in some key generics. Shasun has created a strong product

portfolio, building on its R & D Expertise, regulatory capabilities and multi scale

production capacities. Today, Shasun is one of the largest producers of Ibuprofen

worldwide. The company offers derivatives of Ibuprofen like Ibuprofen Sodium,

Ibuprofen Lysinate and S+Ibuprofen. It is also one of the major producers of

Ranitidine and Nizatidine in the world. Its products are exported to countries

across North America, Europe, Asia and Latin America.

Investment Rationale

􀂾 We expect that Rhodias performance will improve significantly on back of

incremental supplies to Vertex over the next few quarters as the volume ramp up

starts for Incivek and batch supplies get replaced with bulk orders.

􀂾 Incivek commands more than 70% market share with one of the strongest

launches within Pharma industry. Shasun Pharma stands to gain significantly as it

has an assured contract from Vertex (Marketing rights for North America) for

70% of its global requirement of API. We think the strong set of revenue of drug

would reflect in subsequent quarter earnings for Shasun UK.

􀂾 Management has recently highlights strong growth prospects with 40-50%

revenue growth and profitability to triple in FY12. The company plans to reduce

its debt from 330 Cr to 220 Cr with majority of it being repaid through internal

accruals by the end of this financial year.Further the improvement in business

fundamentals led by series of initiatives like expansion of capacities and launch of

new products augur well for the future.

􀂾 We maintain a positive outlook on the stock due to supplies for telaprevir to

vertex, increased focus on high margin APIs and various expansion drives.

Valuations

The stock has come under pressure due to steep rupee depreciation which would

lead to Market to market losses on company’s forward contract We believe going

forward the company is a candidate for re-rating due to high potential growth with

majority of earning accruing from UK subsidiary. At the CMP the stock is trading

at 8.4x for FY11P/E. We recommend BUY with a target price of Rs 90.

JINDAL STEEL & POWER LTD:: Fairwealth Investment Ideas 2012

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JINDAL STEEL & POWER LTD


Jindal Steel and Power Limited (JSPL) is one of India’s major steel producers

with a significant presence in sectors like Mining, Power Generation and

Infrastructure. With an annual turnover of over US $2.9 billion, JSPL is a part of

the about US $15 billion diversified O P Jindal Group and is consistently tapping

new opportunities by increasing production capacity, diversifying investments,

and leveraging its core capabilities to venture into new businesses. The company

has committed investments exceeding US$ 30 billion in the future and has several

business initiatives running simultaneously across continents.

Investment Rationale

􀂾 Currently JSPL has operational capacity of 1,000MW at Tamnar, Chattisgarh,

which is one of the largest merchant capacities in India. In the near term the

company is likely to register a healthy profit from the power segment as the cost

of power generation remains broadly unchanged, given the company has a captive

coal mine.

􀂾 JSPL is adding another 2,400MW of capacity at Tamnar (phase II) in two

phases of 1,200MW each. For some time clearances were pending on this project

but the project has received all the clearances recently. Hence, work is in progress

now and that should be a positive trigger for the stock.

􀂾 On the steel business, the management guided that it is likely to commission

1.5-million-tonne plate mill in Angul, Orissa by the end of FY2012. Further,

during H1FY2013 a 2-million-tonne DRI plant at Angul is expected to come up.

The company is expected to add 1.6 million tonne of steel melting capacity by the

next one year.

􀂾 JSPL plans to increase its steel capacity 4x over the next four years and power

capacity 10x in 10 years. JSPL has one of the best iron ore and coal resources in

India, with assets spread over various mineral-rich countries. Both its steel and

merchant power businesses are insulated from input prices.

􀂾 The stock has underperformed over the last 18-20 months, due to anticipation

of slower earnings growth over FY11-13. We expect the stock to get re-rated

again, as the visibility of projects and earnings improves over the next 12 months.

Valuations

Amidst rising coal supply insecurity in India, the company stands out as one of the

few companies having captive coal resources. We believe the integrated status of

the company ensures it would generate better returns than the regulated players in

the power segment. The sock is currently trading at very attractive valuations of

11.3xFY11P/E. We recommend BUY with a target price of Rs 640 which is a

price appreciation of 41% from CMP.

KPIT CUMMINS:: Fairwealth Investment Ideas 2012

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KPIT CUMMINS


KPIT Cummins (KPIT) provides technology solutions partner for global

Manufacturing corporations with special focus on Automotive, Energy & Utilities,

Industrial Equipments, and Semiconductor industries. Highly focused approach

has helped company to pioneer innovative solutions and file 37 patents in the

Automotive and Semiconductor domains. Following the acquisition of Sparta,

KPIT’s revenue from its SAP-related ERP services doubled over the past two

years.

Investment Rationale

􀂾 KPIT Cummins has been experiencing strong demand environment due to

cyclical up-tick in its manufacturing vertical, positive structural changes in

Automotive clients, emerging economies growth and ramp ups from newly

acquired business (CPG, In2Soft and Sparta).

􀂾 We expect the robust growth to continue going ahead with strong Automotive

engineering demand, sustained IT spending by manufacturing clients being the

key growth drivers.

􀂾 KPIT has shown one of the strongest revenue growth performance within the

mid-cap space with revenue growth of 46% (40% organically) due to strong

demand up-tick in major verticals.

􀂾 KPIT acquired 50% stake in leading Oracle JDE enterprise service provider,

Systime, for ~Rs1.03bn in Q1 FY12 thus strengthening its Oracle offering

providing access to marquee clientele and un-penetrated geographies.

􀂾 KPIT registered strong deal wins during 2QFY12. Traction from top client has

also improved (36% yoy in 2QFY12). Moreover, it has also won a large deal from

its top client recently. In addition, we expect KPIT’s partnership with PACCAR to

ramp up by 1QFY13 and account for ~5% of employee base of KPIT. These

strong deal wins and PACCAR relationship improve medium term visibility on

revenue growth.

􀂾 Despite consolidation of lower-margin SYSTIME, we believe that due to

depreciating INR, KPIT will register a strong 250bps improvement in EBITDA

margins by 4QFY12.

Valuations

The stock is currently trading at 13.5x FY11P/E which appears to be cheap. We

assign BUY rating to the stock with a target price of Rs.185 indicating potential

upside of 27% from current levels.

BAJAJ ELECTRICALS :: Fairwealth Investment Ideas 2012

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BAJAJ ELECTRICALS LTD


Bajaj Electricals Ltd (BEL) is a 72 year old company with diversified business

interest in consumer durables, lighting and engineering & projects (E&P). The

company has grown strongly with revenues increasing at CAGR of 26% and a

staggering 40% CAGR in the bottom line in last five years backed by robust

growth in consumer segment and steady growth in other divisions.

Investment Rationale

􀂾 Consumer durable which consists of small appliances and fans has registered a

strong 3 year CAGR growth of 25.9%. Management has a very bullish stance on

consumer appliances’ space and expects a growth of 20-24% (3x GDP growth).

We expect segments revenue to increase to Rs.1945 Cr in FY13E from Rs.1276.9

Cr in FY11 with a potential to grow at a CAGR of 23% over FY11-13E.

􀂾 Company’s E&P segment which faced headwinds in Q1FY12 is showing

credible traction with revenues increasing 9.7% YoY to Rs.171.2 Cr. Segment

reported EBIT margins of 3.8% as against an operating loss in previous quarter.

BELs current order book stands at Rs.742 Cr which provides revenue visibility for

the current financial year. Lighting and luminaries segment combined is expected

to register revenue of Rs.842.2 Cr in FY13E at 15.5% CAGR.

􀂾 Among the 3 segments, consumer durable is the fastest growing segment with

EBIT margins at 10-13% The share of consumer durable segment to total

revenues has increased from 43.9% in FY08 to 46.6% in FY11. Going ahead, we

expect consumer durable contribution to overall sales to increase to 50% in

FY13E due to higher growth in this segment compared to other segments which

would lead to margin expansion.

􀂾 Q2FY12 performance was a mixed bag with revenues above expectations

while margins being under pressure. Revenues grew 19.2% YoY to Rs.700.8 Cr,

EBIDTA margins fell 22 bps to 7.6%, APAT at Rs.25 Cr registering a YoY

growth of 7.9%, APAT margins however fell 37 bps to 3.6%.

􀂾 Company witnessed pressure on its EBIT margins primarily due to the

consumer durables segment which saw a decline in margins to the tune of 207 bps

YoY in Q2FY12. Consequently company’s overall EBIT margin fell 40 bps YoY

to 7%.

Valuations

At the CMP, BEL trades at a P/E and EV/EBIDTA of 9.6x and 5.5x, discounting

its FY12E numbers. Based on increasing share of consumer segment, higher cash

flows and strong growth prospects, we value the company at 11x FY13E EPS and

arrive at a target price of Rs.241. We recommend BUY

ASHOK LEYLAND:: Fairwealth Investment Ideas 2012

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ASHOK LEYLAND


Ashok Leyland (AL) has seven manufacturing plants - the mother plant at Ennore

near Chennai, three plants at Hosur (called Hosur I and Hosur II, along with a

Press shop), the assembly plants at Alwar, Bhandara and state-of-the-art facility at

Pantnagar. The total covered space at these seven plants exceeds 650,000 sq m

and together employs over 11,500 personnel.

Investment Rationale

􀂾 AL reported a good set of results for Q2FY12, driven by higher net average top

line to Rs.3,095cr, driven by an 18.7% yoy increase in its average net realization.

EBITDA margin came in at 10.7%, registering a decline of 58bp yoy; however, it

expanded by 128bp qoq, largely due to favorable operating leverage, better-thanexpected

realization and lower other expenditure.

􀂾 Management has guided for modest industry volume growth of 5-6% in

FY2012. However, according to management, the company’s volumes are

expected to surpass 100,000 units in FY2012, with exports likely to report sales of

~13,000 units.

􀂾 With interest rates expected to cool down from CY2012, we expect pick-up in

industrial activity, leading to a rebound in M&HCV sales. Thus, we expect Ashok

Leyland's volume growth to rebound in FY13E leading to higher revenues.

􀂾 AL has entered into an agreement to form a JV with Nissan Motor Company

negligible presence in the LCV space, this partnership would be positive for AL in

the long run.

􀂾 Despite the macroeconomic headwinds and a high base, the domestic MHCV

Truck segment has grown 8.9% YoY in H1FY12 aided by an increase in freight

rates. Ashok Leyland has underperformed the industry with a 10% decline in

volumes in the segment which is primarily attributable to the high base of

H1FY11. However, we expect a rebound in H2FY12 with good growth in MHCV

truck volumes and overall volumes.

Valuations

We expect demand to revive from CY12 with the likely easing of interest rates,

thereby helping AL to post robust volume growth in FY13E. At CMP, AL is

trading at 9.5x its FY2011 earnings. We recommend BUY with a target price of

Rs. 32 for a potential upside of 39%.

AXIS BANK LTD:: Fairwealth Investment Ideas 2012

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AXIS BANK LTD


The Bank was promoted jointly by the Administrator of the specified undertaking

of the Unit Trust of India (UTI - I), LIC and GIC and other four PSU insurance

companies, i.e. National Insurance Company Ltd., The New India Assurance

Company Ltd., The Oriental Insurance Company Ltd. and United India Insurance

Company Ltd. The Bank has a very wide network of more than 1281 branches

(including 169 Service Branches/CPCs as on 31st March, 2011). The Bank has a

network of over 6270 ATMs as on 31st March, 2011.

Investment Rationale

􀂾 Axis Bank plans to grow its advances by 22-24% in FY2012 with focus on

corporate and retail (mainly mortgages, automobile) segments. The bank also

plans to diversify its asset book by increasing the proportion of retail advances to

30% of its mix from 21% over the next 2-3 years. The bank's efforts to reduce

wholesale deposits and improve its low-cost deposit ratio through retail savings

augur well for its margins. It has managed to reduce the proportion of wholesale

deposits from 41% in March 2011 to 39% in June 2011.

􀂾 With the present 1400 branches pan India and expected addition of ~200

branches every year will support the business growth. It will also help the bank to

improve its retail segment reach.

􀂾 Axis Bank has enjoyed healthy asset quality so far with GNPA and NNPA at

1.08% and 0.34% respectively. High exposure to infrastructure and other stressed

sectors may post threat on the asset quality in coming quarters but strong growth

in core income will offset for provision requirements.

Valuations

Axis is among our preferred picks in the banking sector due to its strong deposit

franchise, healthy growth-return profile, and relative discount to peers. Concerns

over asset quality of the bank seem largely discounted in the current market price

and stock is currently available at a significant discount to its historical average.

Currently the stock is trading at 1.7x FY11 P/BV. Hence, we recommend Buy on

Axis Bank with medium to long term horizon with the target price of Rs. 1350.

07 September 2011

HIGH CONVICTION STOCKS:: FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES

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CLICK on company name below for details



MARUTI SUZUKI


TATA MOTORS 


ICICI BANK


AXIS BANK


TECPRO SYSTEMS


COX & KING




CLICK on company name above for details

COX & KING : HIGH CONVICTION STOCKS:: FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES

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COX & KING
(Rating: Accumulate, CMP: Rs. 194; Target: Rs. 225; Upside: 16%; Investment Period: 6-12 months)
Investment Rationale
• Cash-rich and a proxy for the booming travel and tourism market in India, Cox & Kings appears a good
investment after its recent falls. The company's entrenched presence in domestic and international travel puts
it at a distinct advantage in the highly-fragmented tourism industry.
• It’s recently announced potential acquisition of the UK-based Holidaybreak Plc too adds to its attractiveness. If
successful, the acquisition would catapult Cox & Kings into the next growth orbit. Back home, rising disposable
incomes, favourable demographics of Indians, with many increasingly seen opting to holiday abroad, and
improving trend in inbound and outbound tourism too promise a healthy growth environment for the company.
Valued at about Rs 2,250 crore, the acquisition will be funded through a mixture of debt and equity. The
company has about Rs 1,000 crore cash and has lined up debt from Axis Bank for the remaining amount. The
deal, however, is subject to approvals (expected by September). While the Holidaybreak acquisition would be
the biggest by Cox & Kings yet, it isn't the first. The company has so far acquired seven companies and has
successfully managed to integrate operations and extract synergies from them.
• Bulk bookings have also helped the company improve its operating margins, which have in the last three years
expanded to 46% (in FY11). Income and profits, during the same period, reported a CAGR growth of 20% and
24% to Rs 497 cr and Rs 122 cr respectively.
At the CMP of Rs 194, the stock is trading at a P/E of 29.07 on TTM basis. EPS on TTM basis is Rs 6.4.

TECPRO SYSTEMS : HIGH CONVICTION STOCKS:: FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES

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TECPRO SYSTEMS
(Rating: Buy; CMP: Rs. 244; Target: Rs. 315; Upside: 29%; Investment Period: 6-12 months)
Investment Rationale
• Tecpro System, with strong presence in bulk-handling material, is one of the major beneficiaries of investment
in the core sector of power, steel, port, etc.
• Over the past few years, the company has grown at a phenomenal pace along with entry into the booming
BoP-EPC (balance of plant-engineering, procurement and construction) space.
• As Tecpro begins to execute more large BoP projects, we believe it will be able to command premium
valuations. The successful execution of a few BoP projects over the next couple of years may also result in
Tecpro taking up complete EPC for power plants, which would place it in league with companies like BGR
Energy.
At the CMP of Rs 244, the stock is trading at a P/E of 8.64 on TTM basis. EPS on TTM basis is Rs 27.77.

AXIS BANK : HIGH CONVICTION STOCKS:: FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES

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AXIS BANK
(Rating: Buy, CMP: Rs. 1039; Target: Rs. 1320; Upside: 27%; Investment Period: 6-12 months)
Investment Rationale
• Concerns over rising interest rates and further key policy rates hike in September 2011v has taken a toll on
banking and financial stocks with many stocks sharply off their November 2010 highs.
• Axis Bank has witnessed strong growth in its deposits and advances despite large base. Total deposits and
advances have grown at a CAGR of 36% and 45% to Rs. 189238 cr and Rs 142408cr respectively in FY11.
• The bank's efforts to reduce wholesale deposits and improve its low-cost deposit ratio through retail savings
augur well for its margins. It has managed to reduce the proportion of wholesale deposits from 41% in March
2011 to 39% in June 2011.
• The credit-deposit ratio at 71.8% is also low which can further improve as the credit off-take picks up.
Additionally, recent hikes in lending rates are yet to reflect on the bank's margins. All these factors would help
the bank maintain the NIM at current levels if not improve it in the coming quarters.
At CMP of Rs 1039, the stock is trading at a P/E of 11.48 on TTM basis (EPS on TTM basis is Rs 87.07).

ICICI BANK : HIGH CONVICTION STOCKS:: FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES

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ICICI BANK
(Rating: Buy, CMP: Rs. 859; Target: Rs. 1050; Upside: 22%; Investment Period: 6-12 months)
Investment Rationale
• ICICI Bank reported a steady set of numbers for Q1FY2012 with an improvement in core income, margins and
asset quality. Given the weak macro environment, the bank has given a loan growth guidance of 18%, diversified
across corporate and retail segments. Continuous improving asset quality is vulnerable to any negative
development in the macro environment

• Since the 2008 crisis, ICICI Bank has changed itself with less risky asset and liability profile. The standalone loan
book now comprises lower proportion of unsecured loans. Average CASA ratio at 40% levels is one of the largest
amongst banks.
• Low NPLs, declining slippages and healthy provision coverage ratio at ~76% strengthen the balance sheet of the
bank. Capital adequacy ratios are healthy at 19.6% (Tier-1 ratio at 13.4%).
At the CMP of Rs 859, the stock is trading at a P/E of 17.31 on TTM basis. EPS on TTM basis is Rs 47.37.


TATA MOTORS : HIGH CONVICTION STOCKS:: FAIRWEALTH SECURITIE

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TATA MOTORS
(Rating: Buy; CMP: Rs. 730; Target: Rs. 1020; Upside: 39.7%; Investment Period: 6-12 months)
Investment Rationale
• Tata Motors fell sharply due to reemerged European debt concerns a month ago leading to worries for
premium car demand. With the sharp correction of ~25%, its valuations are approaching to its lows of FY09 on
EV/Sales and P/BV. Given the current price, we believe the market seems to be factoring in an overly
pessimistic scenario- standalone business (lacklustre volume + lower margin) and JLR (flat volume +
significant margin erosion).
• With both the parent and JLR expanding products into mass segments, we expect the capex and R&D
investments to extend the improvement in ROE in the coming years.
At CMP of Rs 730, the stock is trading at P/E (Cons) of 4.89 on TTM basis. EPS (Cons) on TTM basis is Rs 142.9.

MARUTI SUZUKI : HIGH CONVICTION STOCKS:: FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES

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MARUTI SUZUKI
(Rating: Accumulate; CMP: Rs. 1079; Target: Rs 1280; Upside: 18.6%; Investment Period: 6-12 months)
Investment Rationale
• Series of monetary policy actions by RBI and higher interest rates led the automakers to face headwinds in the
form of lower sales and in-line with this MSI reported 18% de-growth in Q1FY12 to 281526 units. Short term
outlook for MSI seems bleak on the back of mute demand, higher discounts and JPY appreciation putting
pressure on profitability. However, these factors are already factored in the current price which tanked ~12% in
last one month.
• Company is aggressively looking to expand its Diesel portfolio as the difference between petrol and diesel
prices widens on account of petrol price deregulation. Currently the contribution of Diesel portfolio stood at
21% in domestic sales. Maruti recently unveiled new swift at an introductory price of Rs 17 lakh or the base
diesel variant which is competing with Toyota’s Liva, Ford’s Figo and Hyundai’s Brio. In our view, MSI is placed
on the best position in the form of brand loyalty, vast dealer and service network for which the customer is
looking very closely.
At CMP of Rs 1079, the stock is trading at a P/E of 13.15 on TTM basis. EPS on TTM basis is Rs 82.12.

11 March 2011

TECHNO FUNDA CALL – Buy UNITED PHOSPHORUS: FairWealth Equity Research

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United Phosphorus Limited (UPL), incorporated in 1969, is a leading global producer of
crop protection products, intermediates, specialty chemicals and other industrial chemicals.
UPL is present across the value added Agri inputs, ranging from seeds to crop protection
and post harvest activity. It is the largest manufacturer of agrochemicals in India and offers a
slew of products that includes insecticides, fungicides, herbicides, fumigants, PGR and
rodenticides. The customer base is spread across 86 countries and the company ranks
amongst the top 5 post – patent agrochemical manufacturers in the world.

21 January 2011

Axis Bank - BUY:; Fairwealth research

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Axis Bank is the third largest private sector bank in India offering a vast
spectrum of services encompassing large and Mid-corporate Banking, SME
Banking, Agri-Business Banking, Retail Banking and International Banking. The
Bank has well established in both retail and corporate banking and is committed
to adopt the best industry practices internationally in order to achieve
excellence.

HDFC BANK - BUY:; Fairwealth research

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Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC) Bank is the second largest
private sector bank in India. The objective of the bank to build sound customer
franchise across distinct businesses so as to be the preferred provider of
banking services for target retail and whole customer segments, and to achieve
healthy growth in profitability consistent with bank risk appetite.

ICICI BANK - BUY:; Fairwealth research

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ICICI Bank is the country’s second largest bank in term of profit, assets,
advances, deposits, branches. ICICI Bank offers a wide range of banking
products and financial services to corporate and retail customers through a
variety of delivery channels and through its specialized subsidiaries in the areas
of investment banking, life and non-life insurance, venture capital and assets
management.

STATE BANK OF INDIA - BUY :; Fairwealth research

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State Bank of India is the country’s largest commercial bank in term of profit,
assets, advances, deposits, branches and employee. SBI played a extremely
important role in developing India, providing the financing needed to modernize
the country’s agriculture industry and develop new irrigation method and
backing the creation of dairy farming as well as pork and poultry industry. The
Bank also provides the backing for the development of country’s infrastructure.