02 January 2015

All eyes on Pune retreat -HDFC Securities

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Though our markets closed almost flat with the Nifty inching 2 points and the Sensex just 8 points higher, their performance needs to be
applauded coming after a 160 point slide in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Though there are no international cues today, a very important two-day conclave  in Pune is going to get under way today where the head honchos of banks, insurance companies are going to interact with the PM, the FM and the RBI Governor. 

This will keep the embers hot and get the markets in action mode on Monday. Don?t remain short. Be in an investment mode.

PM Modi, Rajan, Jaitley to focus on M&As of PSU banks

Mergers and acquisitions of PSU banks will be a major theme at the two-day 'Gyan Sangam' on January 2-3, a retreat of chiefs of financial 
institutions which will be attended by the Prime Minister, Finance Minister and Reserve Bank Governor.

The first of its kind retreat of bankers and insurers to be held in Pune will also deliberate on financial inclusion and direct benefit transfer 
scheme, two focus areas of the new government.

At the retreat, there will be sessions by prominent experts, including global consultancy firms, group discussions, sharing and demonstration of best practices and technologies.The retreat will end with presentation of a draft action plan to Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the second day.

The Prime Minister will interact with chiefs of financial institutions at the retreat, which is being organised to find out what has gone wrong 
and what should be done both by banks as well as by the government to improve and consolidate the position of PSBs.

The consolidation of the PSU banks has been pending for long and has not made any headway despite various reports advocating merger of various small PSU banks.There are 27 public sector banks, including five associates of State Bank of India.

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley in his first Budget speech on July had indicated the government's intention is mergers and acquisitions of public sector banks.Total Gross Non Performing Assets (NPAs) of public sector banks stood at over Rs 2.43 lakh crore as on end- September 2014.The top 30 NPAs account for Rs 87,368 crore i.e. 35.9 per cent of total gross NPAs of PSBs.

Public sector banks require equity capital of Rs 2.4 lakh crore by 2018 to meet Basel III norms. For the current fiscal, the government has 
allocated Rs 11,200 crore for bank capitalisation.

There will be a talk on financial architecture of MSME by ICICI Bank Chairman K V Kamath, who is also heading a committee on the same subject.

China PMI slips 

China's official manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.1 in December from 50.3 in November. While the figure was in line with consensus, it still 
marked the lowest reading in a year and a half. New export orders recovered modestly, with the sub-index dropping to 49.1 from 48.4, but new orders overall fell to 52.2 from 52.5, suggesting China?s domestic demand is softening. 

A property slump has had a knock-on effect on manufacturers in many industries, from construction machinery to furniture.
With the soft figures, many analysts expect Chinese GDP in Q4 to slow only marginally from 7.3% in Q3, meaning full-year growth will 
undershoot the government's 7.5% target and mark the weakest expansion in 24 years.

Excise duty on petrol, diesel hiked; no change in retail price 
The government has increased excise duty on diesel and petrol by Rs 2 a litre, and said it would set aside the proceeds to build roads. 
The new levy won't affect the price that consumers pay while filling up vehicles at pumps, as it would be offset by fuel retailers against a fall
in crude oil prices. This is the third time since November that the government is increasing the duty, which has kept the fall in local fuel prices much smaller compared with international rates. 

In a statement, the finance ministry said the decision to raise the duty was made "in order to fund the ambitious infrastructure development programme of the government, particularly the building of 15,000 km of roads during current and next financial year". 

The increased tax could fetch the government nearly Rs 6,000 crore in the remaining three months of the current financial year. The higher duty is effective Friday. 

ATF Prices slashed 12.5% - New Year Gift to Aviation

Aviation Turbine Fuel, the fuel with on which Jets run on, was slashed by 12.5% on Thursday.  This was a New Year gift by the Government to the ailing aviation Industry. 

This cut is the sixth reduction in jet fuel rates since August. Jet fuel constitutes more than 40 % of an airline?s operating costs and the price cut will ease the financial burden of cash-strapped carriers.

Non-Subsidised LPG cylinder prices slashed by Rs 43.50

A 14.2-kg cylinder of non-subsidized LPG will now cost Rs 708.50, down from Rs 752 previously, in Delhi. This is the sixth straight reduction in  rates of non-subsidized or market priced LPG, which the customers buy after exhausting their quota of 12 cylinders at subsidized rates, since August.

In six monthly reductions, non-domestic LPG rates have been slashed by Rs 214 per cylinder. 

SRF acquires pharma propellant business of DuPont

SRF has announced the acquisition of Global DuPont Dymel, the pharmaceutical propellant business of American chemical giant DuPont.

In an all-cash deal, SRF would pay a consideration of $20 million for DuPont's Fluorochemicals business, which is part of the performance chemicals segment that DuPont plans to hive off by mid-2015. 

Under the transaction, DuPont would transfer the 'Dymel' brand to SRF as well as the technology and knowhow for setting up its own 'current 

Good Manufacturing Practices' (cGMP) facility for manufacturing its unique pharma grade propellants that do not emit ozone-depleting gases while delivering medications to patients. 

The access to the pharma segment allows SRF to move up the value chain and cater to the growing demand for the pharma grade HFC 134a, approved as a long-term environment friendly alternative propellant for a growing number of medical applications. 

Government likely to issue spectrum auction details by January 6 

The government is likely to issue details for the upcoming spectrum auction in the 800 MHz, 900 MHz, 1800 MHz and 2100 MHz band by 
January 6. 

The Cabinet will also take a decision on the base price for the spectrum auction - scheduled for February 23 - next week. 
Department of Telecom (DoT) expects to issue auction details through the Notice Inviting Application (NIA) after the prices are approved by the Cabinet next week. 

Sectoral regulator TRAI has already given recommendations on the base price and other modalities for the auction of the airwaves in 800 MHz, 900 MHz, 1800 MHz and 2100 MHz bands and has also suggested that all the bands should be auctioned simultaneously. 

Wipro Enterprises seeks members' nod to reduce share capital 

Azim Premji-owned Wipro Enterprises will seek nod from its members to reduce share capital to provide an exit option to non-promoter shareholders.

The company, which was demerged from the flagship firm Wipro in 2012, has called an Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) on January 13 to reduce its share capital to Rs 476.14 crore from Rs 492.32 crore. Many shareholders approached that an exit option be provided to them as the company's shares are unlisted and they should be given an opportunity to offer their shares for sale.

How the U.S. Economy will possibly behave in 2015. 

1.   The economy will grow 3% for the first time in 10 years

The U.S. is likely to grow more than 3% for the first time since 2005.
The U.S. would have added close to 3 million jobs in 2014. We are saying close because the data for the month of December is awaited. 
This will be the biggest increase since 1999.  The increase in job creation is likely to continue in 2015 as well which will continue to fuel 
consumer spending.

The pickup in consumption in turn will entice businesses to hire and invest more to keep up with rising sales. The U.S., as a result  is likely
to grow more than 3% for the first time since 2005.

Perhaps the biggest domestic threat to the 3% growth scenario would be a surprisingly swift hike in interest rates, but from all indications 
a dovish Federal Reserve is unlikely to take aggressive action in 2015.

2.   Wages set to accelerate 

While number  of jobs have been added, wages have remained largely shackled. Hourly earnings have risen an average of 2% annually. 

This  growth is just around 2/3  of the long-term U.S. average. 
The wages are set to finally  accelerate after years of stagnation. 
As hiring is accelerating, unemployment is falling. Businesses will have to raise wages to retain talent.

Businesses are already responding: Job openings in November hit the second highest level in 14 years. In another telltale sign, people are quitting jobs at the fastest rate in five years. Research shows that people who quit one job for another typically do so because they are 
offered higher pay.

3.   More Bang for the buck

Surging oil production , along with slower global growth has caused the price of petroleum to collapse from more than $100 a barrel last
summer to barely $50 a barrel at the end of 2014. The effect has been to reverse an uptick in U.S. inflation earlier in the year.
Perhaps just as important, stable or falling prices will boost the inflation-adjusted pay of U.S. workers and gives them more bang for their buck. 

While oil prices may rebound in 2015, they almost certainly won?t return to $100 a barrel any time soon, barring a geopolitical crisis in a
major petroleum-producing region. So the gift will keep giving this year and further feed an accelerating U.S. recovery.

4.   An Oasis of growth in a slowing world

Slow growth around the world won?t hurt the U.S. all that much. American exports might flatten out or even dip, but that would be offset by lower imports of petroleum because of sinking oil prices. So the trade deficit is unlikely to grow.

Although foreign trade accounts for a greater share of the economy than ever, the United States is still more insulated than virtually every 
major competitor in Europe and Asia. Such everyday purchases as haircuts, dry cleaning, financial advice and eating out are virtually immune from foreign competition.

While the U.S. will continue to contribute to global growth, the only joker in the pack is how the economy will behave when the Federal 
Reserve starts raising rates. 

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