Please Share::
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock NewsVisit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
http://www.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ICICIdirect_ConsolidatedResultPreview_Q4FY12E.pdf
Media
ƒ Ad revenue to stay under pressure across media industry
Q4FY12 is expected to be a subdued quarter for companies across the
media industry owing to the seasonality in the business with Q4 being a
weak quarter and sluggish macroeconomic conditions. While national
advertisers will be affected severely due to the slowing economy, local
advertisers would be somewhat insulated. We expected broadcasters to
witness de-growth in their ad revenues and the print media and radio,
with a higher exposure to local advertisers, to witness modest ad
growth. We expect our media universe to post revenue growth of 9.9%
YoY and de-growth of 2.4% QoQ.
ƒ Digitisation effect – not in Q4FY12
We expect the DTH industry to add a modest 2.3 million subscribers in
Q4FY12, owing to sluggish macroeconomic condition and a price hike
taken in November. Dish TV is expected to have a share in net adds of
25% to 0.6 million. However, the churn rate is expected to remain at
high levels translating to a net subscriber addition of 0.1 million for Dish
TV. ARPU, however, is expected to increase by 1.0% to ~ | 154. MSOs
will be able to reap the benefits of digitisation only after Trai comes out
with a revenue share model. In the absence of that though Hathway
continues to seed STBs, its effect will not be shown on its financials.
ƒ Multiplexes - Occupancy to fall; ATP to stay flat
Multiplexes are expected to see a sequential dip in their occupancy
since the quality on content in Q4FY12 has not been as good as that of
Q3FY12. Also, Q4FY12 being the examination season, is expected to be
a weak quarter for multiplexes. ATP is expected to remain flat in
Q4FY12. We expect the occupancy to decrease by 2-3 percentage
points (pp) QoQ.
ƒ Profitability to mainly decline
Margins across print players are expected to contract YoY due to higher
employee costs and higher SG&A costs due to progressive launches as
well as rise in newsprint prices during the year. Multiplexes are
expected to witness lower occupancy leading to contraction of margins.
Dish TV and Hathway are expected to witness flat EBITDA margins QoQ.
ENIL is expected to see an improvement in margins due to lower
administrative costs albeit on a higher base. Our universe coverage
EBITDA margin is expected to contract ~112 bps QoQ and 291 bps YoY
to 30.3%.
Company specific view
Company Remarks
Cinemax The company has not rolled out any properties in this quarter. Occupancy is expected
to be lower in Q4FY12 QoQ due to relatively lower quality of content in this quarter.
We expect the occupancy to fall to 24% while the ATP is expected to remain more or
less stable at | 145
DB Corp We expect modest ad growth of 10.0% YoY mainly due to the economic slowdown
causing a reduction of ad spend in the industry. Margins are also expected to decline
YoY due to higher newsprint prices, increased circulation and increase in admin costs
owing to new launches made during the year
Dish TV We expect the company to witness a decline in subscriber addition QoQ to 0.6 million
owing to the price hike in November while the monthly churn rate is expected to
remain at high levels of 1.5%. After staying stagnant in Q3FY12, we expect the ARPU
to grow 1.0% to | 153.5
ENIL We expect ad revenues to grow marginally in Q4FY12 YoY on a higher base in
Q4FY11. Inventory utilisation is expected to fall to ~93% in the top eight stations
while for the other 24 stations it is expected to rise to ~72%. Realisation per slot is
expected to decrease from | 280 per slot to | 273 in Q4FY12
HT Media We expect English ad revenues to grow at a subdued 7.0% YoY, on the back of
slowdown in national ads and Hindi ad revenues to grow 13.0% YoY, helped to some
extent by one-time ad revenues due to elections. Margins are expected to contract
YoY due to additional expenses pertaining to a new launch in Moradabad in this
quarter
Jagran
Prakashan
We expect ad revenues to grow at 13.5% YoY, helped marginally by elections.
However, we expect margins to remain flat YoY as lower marketing expenses owing
to absence of new launches in this quarter is expected to be offset by higher
newsprint costs
PVR Occupancy is expected to fall QoQ due to relatively lower quality of content at 28%.
ATP and SPH are expected to remain more or less stable at | 155 and | 45,
respectively. PVR has rolled out one property in Q4FY12 at Nanded with four screen
and 1004 seats
Sun TV We expect ad revenues to decline ~10% YoY due to a decline in TRP ratings owing to
power shortages in southern states, competition from ARASU cable and a sluggish
macroeconomic environment. Analogue subscription revenues are expected to remain
subdued while DTH revenues are expected to increase ~5% YoY. Margins are
expected to contract due to lower ad revenue
Hathway Cable We expect revenue paying subscribers to remain flat in Q4FY12 as the company is
currently focusing on seeding STBs. The effect of seeding STBs will be revealed once
Trai comes up with a revenue sharing model, which was expected to happen by the
end of March
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
No comments:
Post a Comment