01 August 2011

Reliance Industries- 1QFY12 - in line; strong refining quarter as anticipated ::JPMorgan

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Reliance Industries Ltd Overweight
RELI.BO, RIL IN
1QFY12 - in line; strong refining quarter as anticipated


RIL 1QFY12 earnings were in line with expectations at Rs56.6bn (JPMe
Rs56.3bn). Robust GRMS (US$10.3/bbl), combined with high throughput
(110% utilization), drove a very strong refining quarter and helped offset
the impact of volume declines in E&P, margin pressures in petrochems.
 1QFY12 – good operational delivery in refining: Strong diesel
spreads, light-heavy differentials, coupled with high refining throughput
helped RIL maximize Refining EBIT in 1QFY12 (Rs32bn, +28%q/q).
RIL believes refining will continue to be a strong contributor in the
medium term with sustaining high light-heavy differentials and robust
middle-distillate spreads. With no shutdowns envisaged in 2Q, RIL
expects to continue running its refineries at high throughput levels.
 Weak petchem quarter, 2Q off to a better start: High price volatility
and weak demand in the domestic market led to a poor petrochem
quarter for RIL, with EBIT down 16% q/q. However, RIL managed to
contain petchem inventory build, despite downstream processors
destocking. RIL emphasized domestic demand has revived in July and
despite the decline in cotton prices, cotton-polyester differential
remained high and polyester margins continue to be robust.
 E&P uncertainty continues: RIL continues to engage with the
government on D6 - regulatory scrutiny has impacted decision-making
and plans on further drilling, workovers had not yet been
finalized/approved. Shale JVs are ramping up production (6.1mmscmd),
RIL expects Shale to contribute materially to earnings in a few years.
 Petchem project timelines to firm up this quarter: RIL expects
polyester expansion projects (ex- PX, MEG) to be largely completed by
Dec-13. RIL is negotiating licensing terms for the major units and
expects to firm up project timelines this quarter.
We reiterate OW, PT Rs1200.


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