26 August 2011

India property:: Defensive bets ::CLSA

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Defensive bets
The India based property companies presenting at the CLSA property
access forum in Singapore last week outlined a cautious but stable
picture in the near term of Indian property market. Phoenix Mills has not
seen any signs of retailer caution and continues to proceed with its mall
completions. Ascendas has seen steady leasing trends at its office
properties in 1Q and continues to add to its portfolio. Oberoi is patiently
waiting for a correction in land prices to deploy its cash, while
maintaining its focus on quality execution. We like Oberoi as a preferred
mid-cap realty pick. The three stocks have outperformed BSE Realty index
by 28-33% and the Sensex by 7-13% YTD.
Oberoi: Quality focus, strong balance sheet
q Mr. Vikas Oberoi, Chairman and MD of Oberoi Realty, highlighted that the company
remains committed to maintaining their quality focus. The same has yielded
anywhere between 20-50% higher prices/rentals for their product.
q While the chances of a substantial price cut are low, Oberoi will adopt pragmatic
pricing policies to maintain a healthy sales rate.
q Management also believes that the proposed changes to Mumbai development rules
will be beneficiary to them as they will serve to level the playing field.
q With Rs16bn in net cash and Rs1bn rental stream – Oberoi has balance sheet
strength for acquiring more land. However, the same depends entirely on project
economics as company is willing to wait for a correction in land prices.
Phoenix Mills: Asset stream finally maturing
q Phoenix’s management highlighted that with the Pune mall opening in June’11, its 5
year process of expansion beyond the core Mumbai property has started maturing.
q Total lease asset portfolio will reach 5.3m sf when the expansion completes by
Mar’12, with a gross lease income potential of US$150m/annum.
q Current leasing rates for the new malls are 60-85%. Opening up of FDI in retail can
be a substantial trigger for rentals.
q Phoenix also monitors consumer spending at its malls (revenue share is c.8% of
total lease income) and has seen no slowdown till now.
Ascendas India Trust: Stable income; attractive growth options
q Ascendas has a 6.4m sf of constructed IT Park/SEZ office space in India on which
the company earns c.US$100m of annual rental.
q Of the above, it has recently completed 1.7m sf space and the same will add to
rentals in subsequent quarters. Additionally it has 10m sf+ of growth options with
only a 22% gearing.
q Till 1QFY12, Ascendas didn’t see any signs of leasing activity slowdown, as it
completed 0.45m sf in new leasings and forward commitments.
q Overall company finds the markets of Hyderabad, Bengaluru and Gurgaon stronger
for office leasing with 5-10% annual rent increase seen over the last year

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