Please Share:: 
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
B e l o w e s t i m a t e s o n l o w e r s u b s i d y p a y m e n t …
Indian Oil Corp (IOCL) declared its Q4FY11 results with revenues of |
101285.0 crore, EBITDA loss of | 1861.8 crore and net loss of | 3718.7
crore. The results were below our estimates mainly on account of lower
refining margins and higher net under-recoveries. The downstream
companies shared a higher net subsidy burden of 32.2% in Q1FY12
against 8.8% in FY11, which got reflected in the current quarterly results.
Refining margins stood at US$4.7 per barrel in Q1FY12, (40% QoQ
decline) that impacted the bottomline. We have maintained our Brent
crude oil prices estimates of US$100 per barrel, going forward. We have
assumed net under-recoveries for downstream companies at 8.8% in
FY12E and FY13E. We estimate IOC will report EPS of | 31.2 and | 37.2 in
FY12E and FY13E, respectively. We recommend a BUY rating on the
stock with a price target of | 376.
ƒ Highlights of the quarter
The crude oil throughput increased 7.8% YoY from 13.3 MMT in
Q1FY11 to 14.3 MMT in Q1FY12 mainly on account of higher
throughput from its Paradip refinery. The gross refining margins
(GRMs) decreased from US$7.9 per barrel in Q4FY11 to US$4.7 per
barrel in Q1FY12 on account of inventory loss (due to change in
customs duty structure) of $2.35 per barrel. The total market sales
increased 5.8% YoY from 17.2 MMT in Q1FY11 to 18.2 MMT in
Q1FY12. The net subsidy burden of 32.3% in Q1FY12 against 8.8%
in FY11 led to under-recoveries of | 7672.6 crore.
V a l u a t i o n
IOCL is trading at 10.3x FY12E and 8.6x FY13E EPS of | 31.2 and | 37.2,
respectively. We recommend the stock with a BUY rating and a price
target of | 376 (valuation based on average of P/BV multiple: | 347 per
share and P/E multiple: | 405 per share).
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
B e l o w e s t i m a t e s o n l o w e r s u b s i d y p a y m e n t …
Indian Oil Corp (IOCL) declared its Q4FY11 results with revenues of |
101285.0 crore, EBITDA loss of | 1861.8 crore and net loss of | 3718.7
crore. The results were below our estimates mainly on account of lower
refining margins and higher net under-recoveries. The downstream
companies shared a higher net subsidy burden of 32.2% in Q1FY12
against 8.8% in FY11, which got reflected in the current quarterly results.
Refining margins stood at US$4.7 per barrel in Q1FY12, (40% QoQ
decline) that impacted the bottomline. We have maintained our Brent
crude oil prices estimates of US$100 per barrel, going forward. We have
assumed net under-recoveries for downstream companies at 8.8% in
FY12E and FY13E. We estimate IOC will report EPS of | 31.2 and | 37.2 in
FY12E and FY13E, respectively. We recommend a BUY rating on the
stock with a price target of | 376.
ƒ Highlights of the quarter
The crude oil throughput increased 7.8% YoY from 13.3 MMT in
Q1FY11 to 14.3 MMT in Q1FY12 mainly on account of higher
throughput from its Paradip refinery. The gross refining margins
(GRMs) decreased from US$7.9 per barrel in Q4FY11 to US$4.7 per
barrel in Q1FY12 on account of inventory loss (due to change in
customs duty structure) of $2.35 per barrel. The total market sales
increased 5.8% YoY from 17.2 MMT in Q1FY11 to 18.2 MMT in
Q1FY12. The net subsidy burden of 32.3% in Q1FY12 against 8.8%
in FY11 led to under-recoveries of | 7672.6 crore.
V a l u a t i o n
IOCL is trading at 10.3x FY12E and 8.6x FY13E EPS of | 31.2 and | 37.2,
respectively. We recommend the stock with a BUY rating and a price
target of | 376 (valuation based on average of P/BV multiple: | 347 per
share and P/E multiple: | 405 per share).
No comments:
Post a Comment