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Property
Property companies are likely to report small revenue growth YoY (barring
Mumbai based developers, where we will likely see a drop) on small
volume/flat pricing for new launches. Margins should be down YoY though on
rising construction costs leading to profit declines.
We expect DLF to report 2m sf+ in new sales (1.9m sf in 1Q11) led by new
project launches in Gurgaon and Indore. QoQ Ebitda margins should rise due
to base effect of one time cost adjustment and higher plotted sales
contribution; though margins may not revert back to c.50% levels.
Unitech should report sales above its 2m sf run rate of past three quarters on
an increased launch pace. Revenues may be flat to down YoY due to base
effect. Margins should recover QoQ like DLF but lower YoY on rising costs.
HDIL is expected to report much lower revenues/PAT QoQ and YoY on lower
TDR revenues. Land deal recognition may swing estimates though.
Sobha should report a strong sales number on new launches and a strong
Bangalore market. While real estate revenues/profits may rise YoY; base
effect of a Rs58m land deal will make YoY comparisons soft though.
Oberoi is likely to report continued strong margins though revenues may
decline YoY due to no new project entering revenue recognition and slow sales
momentum on ongoing projects.
JP Infra will report a YoY decline in profits as base quarter had sales coming in
from high margin plotted sales. Profits should be flat QoQ. Sales, post the
controversy in Noida last quarter, will be interesting to watch out for.
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