01 July 2011

JPMorgan-- Crompton Greaves :: Annual report analysis: Fundamentals sound, growth drivers in place

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Crompton Greaves Limited
Overweight
CROM.BO, CRG IN
Annual report analysis: Fundamentals sound, growth drivers in place


A  close  look  at  CG’s  FY11  annual  report  strengthens  our  belief  in  sound
business fundamentals and balance sheet quality. While near-term competition
led  pricing  pressures  may  remain,  we  like  steps taken  by  CG  to  sustain
margins. Recent  acquisitions  have  been  rational,  transformer  demand in
developed  markets  has  seen  significant  revival,  drivers  of  domestic
growth remain strong and valuations look attractive. We maintain OW.
 Healthy volume growth in  FY11 across segments: A consecutive year of
~13% dips in price realizations shadowed ~17% growth in domestic power
output in MVA terms. Overseas  subsidiaries saw  healthy  volume  growth
of  over  25%  in  both  power  transformers  and  distribution  transformers.
~21%  revenue  growth  in  overseas  subs  in  Euro  terms  was  shadowed  by
negative  impact  of  currency  translation  (~12%).  Underlying  growth  in
consumer  products was  robust  and  ahead  of  market- fans  grew  by  31%,
lighting 16% and pumps by 29%. Rotating machine industry volumes grew
by 11% while CG’s industrial systems posted revenue growth of 19% amid
pricing  pressures,  providing  more  evidence  of  strong  volume  growth. The
composition  of  standalone  revenue  in  FY11  is  encouraging- ~21-27%  of
sales across segments were through new products.
 Dissection of 60bps EBITDA margin dip in FY11 to 13.4%. The margin
hit was led  by RM while  staff/SG&A  costs  partially  mitigated  commodity
price  pressures.  Despite  dip  in  realizations  and  competitive  pressures,
consolidated  power  systems EBITDA  margins improved  slightly  owing to
productivity  improvements  and  efficient  procurement  of  RM.  Margin  dip
was entirely led by  Industrial systems in FY11 as the company was unable
to pass on higher commodity prices to customers. Since Mar-q prices have
been revised upwards in the segment, as per management.
 Balance sheet review: Net-D/E was ~0.05x as of Mar-11 and leaves room
to lever BS for future acquisitions. WC days have increased to 31 from 17
in  FY10,  owing  to  delays  in  acceptance  of  finished  goods  by  domestic
power  customers- but  still  well  below  historical  levels.  For  10  successive
years CG has generated +ive FCF, and FY11 RoE was ~32%, above peers.

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