01 July 2011

Goldman Sachs, IT Spending Survey: Spending indices snap back sharply

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Indices regain footing on strong corporate expectations
Taken in mid-May, our latest IT spending survey regained its footing after
taking a pause in our April survey, with both our tech spending and capital
spending indices back to recent record levels. Our total IT spending index
(this includes salaries, services, depreciation, occupancy, etc.) rebounded
to 72.5 from 68.0 in our June 2011 survey. This marks the second-highest
index value since 2007 and indicates that spending expectations remain
strongly in expansion territory. After notching down to 66.0 (from 69.5) in
our April survey, our tech capital spending index also rose sharply to 72.5,
which is the highest level since December 2006.
2H2011 spending expectations reinforce strength of our
indices, 2011 growth expectation improve
A total of 28% of our panel expect an acceleration from seasonal IT
spending for the second half of the year, which is twice the percentage of
respondents who expected an increase in 2H2010 versus 1H2010. In
addition, IT spending expectations for 2011 improved from our last survey
with roughly 40% of respondents (12 percentage points higher than last
survey) expecting better IT spending growth in 2011 versus 2010.
Apple, Cisco, EMC sustain share gains; Juniper gains traction
Apple once again ranked high as a share gainer in the PC segment of the
survey, which could be an early indication that CIO sentiment is warming
up to Macs (though this tends to occur very gradually). Although Apple has
gained corporate momentum with iOS (iPhone and iPad), we haven’t been
expecting Macs to substantially penetrate the enterprise. Cisco remains in
the share gainer category in networking, reflecting the continued strength
of the franchise despite the stock sell-off. In our first read on Juniper’s
QFabric, a strong 25% of respondents indicate they are highly likely to
adopt it. In storage, EMC maintained its market share momentum, ranking
as the number one share gainer for the second consecutive quarter.
Our 2011 IT spending growth remains unchanged at 6%
We maintain our 2011 IT spending growth forecast at 6%, but we remain
mindful of some soft spots and lower Street expectations. As things
currently stand we maintain our +6% yoy IT spending growth forecast, with
the delta between our global IT spending expectations and Street in line
with the +/-2% range we have seen in the past.

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