Please Share:: 
International business surprises; domestic weak. GCPL reported 6% and 8% outperformance in consolidated revenues and EBITDA respectively on the back of solid outperformance in the international business. However, domestic performance, both on revenues and EBITDA, was weaker than our expectations. Our estimates are already reasonably bullish for FY2016/17E and we shall assess if there is a reason to be even more aggressive post the earnings call. Rich valuations on aggressive estimates underpin our REDUCE rating.
�� India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details ��
��
3QFY15 results – ahead of expectations on international business surprise GCPL’s consolidated revenues grew 12% yoy to `22.2 bn, 1% ahead of our expectation. EBITDA came in at `3.9 bn (+28% yoy), 6% ahead of our estimates and recurring PAT came in at `2.6 bn (+35% yoy), 8% ahead of our estimates. Outperformance in consolidated revenues was led by strong growth in the international business even as domestic revenues were weaker than expectations. EBITDA outperformance was aided by higher GMs in domestic business (up 360 bps yoy; led by fall in palm oil prices), lower A&SP in both domestic and international business (consolidated A&SP declined 4% yoy in absolute terms, down 170 bps yoy) and lower overheads. Standalone performance – GCPL reported 12% yoy topline growth to `11.7 bn, 2% below estimates. EBITDA was 5% lower versus our expectations at `2.1 bn despite higher-thanexpected GMs (up 360 bps yoy to 55.1%) due to higher employee costs (up 230 bps yoy) and higher other expenses (up 100 bps yoy). Recurring PAT grew 16% yoy, 4% below estimates, on account of miss in EBITDA and 30% yoy dip in other income. Domestic revenues grew 12% yoy aided by 11%, 10% and 16% growth in soaps, hair colors and HI segments. International performance – GCPL reported organic revenue growth of 12% yoy; constantcurrency growth was higher at 20% – however, negative translation across geographies (highest in Latin America) impacted reported revenue growth rates. Constant-currency growth – Indonesia grew 19%, Africa 36%, LatAm 25% and Europe declined by 13% yoy (second consecutive quarter of decline). International EBITDA margins grew 250 bps yoy driving organic (ex-licensing fees) EBITDA growth of 35% yoy. EBITDA margins expanded across geographies except for Africa where margins were flat yoy at 18%. Retain REDUCE; will review our estimates post the earnings call GCPL beat expectations at the consolidated level despite miss at the standalone level. Domestic business weakness was mitigated by better-than-expected revenue growth in the international business. Sharp absolute decline in A&SP drove margin, EBITDA and PAT outperformance making this a low-quality outperformance, in our view. The obvious (RM tailwinds) and expected (volume growth acceleration) positives are in the price with the stock trading at 28X P/E on FY2017E EPS. We reiterate REDUCE. We shall review our estimates post the earnings call.
LINK
http://www.kotaksecurities.com/pdf/indiadaily/indiadaily06022015mh.pdf
International business surprises; domestic weak. GCPL reported 6% and 8% outperformance in consolidated revenues and EBITDA respectively on the back of solid outperformance in the international business. However, domestic performance, both on revenues and EBITDA, was weaker than our expectations. Our estimates are already reasonably bullish for FY2016/17E and we shall assess if there is a reason to be even more aggressive post the earnings call. Rich valuations on aggressive estimates underpin our REDUCE rating.
�� India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details ��
��
3QFY15 results – ahead of expectations on international business surprise GCPL’s consolidated revenues grew 12% yoy to `22.2 bn, 1% ahead of our expectation. EBITDA came in at `3.9 bn (+28% yoy), 6% ahead of our estimates and recurring PAT came in at `2.6 bn (+35% yoy), 8% ahead of our estimates. Outperformance in consolidated revenues was led by strong growth in the international business even as domestic revenues were weaker than expectations. EBITDA outperformance was aided by higher GMs in domestic business (up 360 bps yoy; led by fall in palm oil prices), lower A&SP in both domestic and international business (consolidated A&SP declined 4% yoy in absolute terms, down 170 bps yoy) and lower overheads. Standalone performance – GCPL reported 12% yoy topline growth to `11.7 bn, 2% below estimates. EBITDA was 5% lower versus our expectations at `2.1 bn despite higher-thanexpected GMs (up 360 bps yoy to 55.1%) due to higher employee costs (up 230 bps yoy) and higher other expenses (up 100 bps yoy). Recurring PAT grew 16% yoy, 4% below estimates, on account of miss in EBITDA and 30% yoy dip in other income. Domestic revenues grew 12% yoy aided by 11%, 10% and 16% growth in soaps, hair colors and HI segments. International performance – GCPL reported organic revenue growth of 12% yoy; constantcurrency growth was higher at 20% – however, negative translation across geographies (highest in Latin America) impacted reported revenue growth rates. Constant-currency growth – Indonesia grew 19%, Africa 36%, LatAm 25% and Europe declined by 13% yoy (second consecutive quarter of decline). International EBITDA margins grew 250 bps yoy driving organic (ex-licensing fees) EBITDA growth of 35% yoy. EBITDA margins expanded across geographies except for Africa where margins were flat yoy at 18%. Retain REDUCE; will review our estimates post the earnings call GCPL beat expectations at the consolidated level despite miss at the standalone level. Domestic business weakness was mitigated by better-than-expected revenue growth in the international business. Sharp absolute decline in A&SP drove margin, EBITDA and PAT outperformance making this a low-quality outperformance, in our view. The obvious (RM tailwinds) and expected (volume growth acceleration) positives are in the price with the stock trading at 28X P/E on FY2017E EPS. We reiterate REDUCE. We shall review our estimates post the earnings call.
LINK
http://www.kotaksecurities.com/pdf/indiadaily/indiadaily06022015mh.pdf
No comments:
Post a Comment