05 February 2015

Automobiles: Passenger car volume steady post excise rollback, 2W disappoints ::Kotak Sec, report

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Passenger car volume steady post excise rollback, 2W disappoints. Passenger car manufacturers reported steady sales in January 2015 with Maruti, Honda and Tata Motors posting robust growth. However, UV sales disappointed for both Tata Motors and M&M. Two-wheeler volumes remained subdued reflecting inventory build-up. Hero and TVS reported flat yoy growth while Bajaj Auto reported 12% yoy decline in total motorcycle volumes. Recovery in MHCVs continues with Ashok Leyland, VECV and Tata Motors posting strong growth.

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Two-wheelers report subdued growth Hero Motocorp reported subdued volume growth (flat yoy) in January 2015 as transporters’ strike in the month affected volumes. We believe the company’s sales will pick up in the coming months during the marriage season. The company’s scooter capacity has increased to 100,000 units/month from January 2015. Bajaj Auto reported a 9% yoy decline in total volumes led by 12% yoy decline in motorcycle volumes, which was partially offset by 14% yoy increase in three-wheeler volumes. Among others, TVS Motors reported subdued volume growth (+1% yoy) as the company witnessed production cuts due to annual maintenance and holidays during January. The company reported a 4% yoy growth in domestic two-wheeler volumes, which was offset by 18% decline in two-wheeler export volumes. Royal Enfield continues on its growth trajectory posting 42% yoy increase in domestic sales volumes. Maruti Suzuki reports 9% yoy increase in domestic sales led by compact cars, UVs Maruti Suzuki reported 9% yoy increase in domestic sales volume in January 2015 led by (1) 8% yoy increase in the Swift-Celerio-Ritz segment, (2) 8% yoy growth in the Omni and Eeco segment and (3) 35% growth in the utility vehicles segment. Export volumes continued to rise registering a sharp 89% increase yoy in January 2015. Total sales volume grew by 14% yoy aided by strong export and domestic volumes. Among other car manufacturers, Hyundai reported 4% yoy increase in domestic sales, Toyota Kirloskar reported 16% yoy domestic sales growth and Honda Cars reported 17% yoy growth in January 2015. M&M passenger UV sales volumes decline 5% yoy; tractor volumes continue to disappoint M&M reported 13% yoy decline in total sales in January 2015 led by (1) 26% yoy decline in tractor volumes, (2) 14% yoy decline in pick-up volumes and (3) 5% decline in passenger UV volumes, which was partially offset by 22% yoy growth in auto exports. Tractor volumes have continued to register sharp yoy decline in the recent months and we expect M&M sales volumes to remain subdued for the rest of the fiscal despite a decent response to the new Scorpio. Absence of new model launches in the UV/SUV segment for next few months is likely to impact the company’s competitive positioning even as it gears up for the launch of compact SUVs towards the latter half of CY2015. MHCV recovery remains on track Tata Motors reported 5% yoy growth in total sales volume led by (1) 38% yoy growth in domestic MHCV sales and (2) 19% yoy growth in the passenger cars segment led by strong Zest and Nano sales. However, light commercial vehicle (LCV) sales continued its downward trajectory with a decline of 18% yoy in the domestic market while UV volumes also declined by 44% yoy. Among other players, Ashok Leyland posted 36% yoy growth driven by 45% yoy growth in MHCV volumes while VECV posted 27% growth in domestic volumes led by 31% growth in MHCV volumes.

LINK
http://www.kotaksecurities.com/pdf/indiadaily/indiadaily03022015ga.pdf

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