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Company specific view (Oil and Gas)
Company Remarks
Aban Offshore Revenues are expected to decline 2.6% QoQ in Q3FY15 as Aban 5 & 7 continued to
remain under marketing and contracts of Aban 6 & 8 expired during the quarter. The
EBITDA margin is expected to remain flat QoQ at 57.7%. PAT is expected to decrease
26.3% QoQ in Q3FY15 on account of higher tax rates.
Cairn India Revenues are expected to decrease 38.6% YoY on account of sharp decline in crude oil
prices. This will result in oil realisation declining by 28.3% YoY to $68.6/bbl in Q3FY15.
Subsequently, PAT is expected to decrease 53% YoY. On the operational front, the
gross production from Rajasthan fields is expected to increase 11.3% YoY from
1,63,262 boepd to 1,81,667 boepd while the net oil & gas production is expected to
increase marginally by 2.9% YoY to 1,36,779 boepd.
Castrol India We expect revenues to increase 7.7% YoY on account of 4% YoY increase in volumes
to 49.7 million litres and 3.5% YoY increase in net realisation. EBITDA margin is
expected to improve by 220 basis points on account of decrease in raw material costs.
Subsequently, PAT is expected to increase 9% YoY to | 137.6 crore in Q4CY14
Gail We expect transmission volumes to remain flat QoQ at 92 mmscmd while transmission
tariffs are expected to improve to |1/scm. Petchem volumes are expected to increase
4.5% QoQ to 115 KTPA while its realisations are expected to decrease 7% QoQ. We
expect a subsidy burden of | 900 crore in Q3FY15 which includes subsidy of | 500
crore not accounted in Q2FY15. PAT is expected to decrease 72.9% QoQ mainly on
account of poor performance in LPG segment.
Gujarat Gas We expect 14.2% YoY decrease in revenues mainly due to 12.8% YoY decline in
volumes to 2.2 mmscmd. However, the gross spread is expected to increase from |
7.9/scm in Q4FY14 to | 8.3/scm in Q3FY15 on account of lower LNG prices resulting in
higher profits YoY.
Hindustan
Petroleum
We expect revenues to decrease 24.6% YoY on account of sharp decline in crude oil
prices. This will lead to inventory losses resulting in lower refining margins of $0.3/bbl
vs. $2.3/bbl YoY. We have assumed nil subsidy for the downstream companies that
will help it to post marginal profits in Q3FY15.
Indian Oil We expect revenues to decrease 28% YoY on account of sharp decline in crude oil
prices. This will lead to inventory losses resulting in refining margins of -$1.9/bbl vs.
$4.6/bbl YoY. Hence, IOC would post losses in Q3FY15 in spite of our assumption of nil
subsidy for the downstream companies during the quarter.
Indraprastha
Gas
Revenues are expected to decrease 6.9% YoY due to 11.5% YoY decrease in net
realisations. However, sales volumes are expected to increase 4.7% YoY to 3.9
mmscmd (CNG: 2.9 mmscmd, PNG: 1 mmscmd). PAT is expected to increase 43.1%
YoY on account of higher domestic gas allocation and lower LNG prices
MRPL We expect revenues to decline 42.7% YoY due to sharp decline in crude oil prices. This
will lead to inventory losses resulting in refining margins of -$8.4/bbl in Q3FY15 vs. -
$4/bbl in Q2FY15. The increased fuel and loss in scenario of part commissioning of
refinery expansion project will also contribute to lower GRM's. The throughput is
expected to remain flat at 3.6 mmtpa in Q3FY15.
Oil India We expect oil production of 0.9 MMT in Q3FY15, which is marginal decline of 0.7% YoY
and an increase of 2.4% QoQ, The net realisation is expected at $47.4/bbl in Q3FY15
against $45.3/bbl in Q2FY15 assuming subsidy burden at $28/bbl vs. $56/bbl QoQ (|
1125.9 crore vs. | 2238.3 crore QoQ).
Petronet LNG We expect Petronet's volumes to increase 19.5% YoY and decline 1.9% QoQ to 147.7
trillion British thermal units (tbtu) (2.8 mmt) in Q3FY15. Increase in volumes YoY is
mainly attributed to commissioning of the new jetty at Dahej. Blended margins are
expected to be stable at | 41.6/mmbtu vs. | 42/mmbtu QoQ
Source: ICICIdirect.com Researc
LINK
http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_ConsolidatedPreview_Q3FY15.pdf
�� India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details ��
��
Company specific view (Oil and Gas)
Company Remarks
Aban Offshore Revenues are expected to decline 2.6% QoQ in Q3FY15 as Aban 5 & 7 continued to
remain under marketing and contracts of Aban 6 & 8 expired during the quarter. The
EBITDA margin is expected to remain flat QoQ at 57.7%. PAT is expected to decrease
26.3% QoQ in Q3FY15 on account of higher tax rates.
Cairn India Revenues are expected to decrease 38.6% YoY on account of sharp decline in crude oil
prices. This will result in oil realisation declining by 28.3% YoY to $68.6/bbl in Q3FY15.
Subsequently, PAT is expected to decrease 53% YoY. On the operational front, the
gross production from Rajasthan fields is expected to increase 11.3% YoY from
1,63,262 boepd to 1,81,667 boepd while the net oil & gas production is expected to
increase marginally by 2.9% YoY to 1,36,779 boepd.
Castrol India We expect revenues to increase 7.7% YoY on account of 4% YoY increase in volumes
to 49.7 million litres and 3.5% YoY increase in net realisation. EBITDA margin is
expected to improve by 220 basis points on account of decrease in raw material costs.
Subsequently, PAT is expected to increase 9% YoY to | 137.6 crore in Q4CY14
Gail We expect transmission volumes to remain flat QoQ at 92 mmscmd while transmission
tariffs are expected to improve to |1/scm. Petchem volumes are expected to increase
4.5% QoQ to 115 KTPA while its realisations are expected to decrease 7% QoQ. We
expect a subsidy burden of | 900 crore in Q3FY15 which includes subsidy of | 500
crore not accounted in Q2FY15. PAT is expected to decrease 72.9% QoQ mainly on
account of poor performance in LPG segment.
Gujarat Gas We expect 14.2% YoY decrease in revenues mainly due to 12.8% YoY decline in
volumes to 2.2 mmscmd. However, the gross spread is expected to increase from |
7.9/scm in Q4FY14 to | 8.3/scm in Q3FY15 on account of lower LNG prices resulting in
higher profits YoY.
Hindustan
Petroleum
We expect revenues to decrease 24.6% YoY on account of sharp decline in crude oil
prices. This will lead to inventory losses resulting in lower refining margins of $0.3/bbl
vs. $2.3/bbl YoY. We have assumed nil subsidy for the downstream companies that
will help it to post marginal profits in Q3FY15.
Indian Oil We expect revenues to decrease 28% YoY on account of sharp decline in crude oil
prices. This will lead to inventory losses resulting in refining margins of -$1.9/bbl vs.
$4.6/bbl YoY. Hence, IOC would post losses in Q3FY15 in spite of our assumption of nil
subsidy for the downstream companies during the quarter.
Indraprastha
Gas
Revenues are expected to decrease 6.9% YoY due to 11.5% YoY decrease in net
realisations. However, sales volumes are expected to increase 4.7% YoY to 3.9
mmscmd (CNG: 2.9 mmscmd, PNG: 1 mmscmd). PAT is expected to increase 43.1%
YoY on account of higher domestic gas allocation and lower LNG prices
MRPL We expect revenues to decline 42.7% YoY due to sharp decline in crude oil prices. This
will lead to inventory losses resulting in refining margins of -$8.4/bbl in Q3FY15 vs. -
$4/bbl in Q2FY15. The increased fuel and loss in scenario of part commissioning of
refinery expansion project will also contribute to lower GRM's. The throughput is
expected to remain flat at 3.6 mmtpa in Q3FY15.
Oil India We expect oil production of 0.9 MMT in Q3FY15, which is marginal decline of 0.7% YoY
and an increase of 2.4% QoQ, The net realisation is expected at $47.4/bbl in Q3FY15
against $45.3/bbl in Q2FY15 assuming subsidy burden at $28/bbl vs. $56/bbl QoQ (|
1125.9 crore vs. | 2238.3 crore QoQ).
Petronet LNG We expect Petronet's volumes to increase 19.5% YoY and decline 1.9% QoQ to 147.7
trillion British thermal units (tbtu) (2.8 mmt) in Q3FY15. Increase in volumes YoY is
mainly attributed to commissioning of the new jetty at Dahej. Blended margins are
expected to be stable at | 41.6/mmbtu vs. | 42/mmbtu QoQ
Source: ICICIdirect.com Researc
LINK
http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_ConsolidatedPreview_Q3FY15.pdf
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