Logistics ƒ Buoyant container volume at major ports continues ƒ :Q3FY15 Result Preview : ICICI Securities, report

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--> Logistics
ƒ Buoyant container volume at major ports continues
Container volume at Major ports continues to grow strongly with the
volume in the current quarter posting a growth ~13% on YoY basis.
On YTD basis also, the Major Ports container volume grew at nearly
8% YoY. For JNPT and Chennai port the recovery continues to be
remarkably sharp as container volume posted growth of 17% and 8%
respectively for Oct-Nov 2014 and 11% and 5% on YTD basis. JNPT
recorded 733000 TEUs for Oct-Nov 2014 period against 625000 TEUs
in the same period last year. Similarly for Chennai port the container
volumes stood at 254000 TEUs against 235000 TEUs for the
corresponding period last year.
ƒ Healthy container volume growth to shore up logistics sector
As volume recovers, I-direct logistics universe revenue as well as
EBITDA is expected to show robust growth of ~14% and 15%
respectively on YoY basis while sequentially it is expected to remain
flattish. The total revenue for the universe is expected at |2435.6 crore
against |2138.2crore in Q3FY14 while EBITDA is expected at |550.8
crore against |478.4 crore for the corresponding quarter last year. PAT
for the quarter is expected at |393 crore. On company basis, Concor,
Bluedart and Gujarat Pipavav revenue is expected to grow at
~11%,22.5% and 25% YoY respectively while Gateway Distripark’s
revenue is expected to remain muted, posting a growth of ~4% on
YoY basis. However, on QoQ basis for the logistics universe revenue,
EBITDA and PAT are expected to remain flat to stable. EBITDA growth
(YoY) for the sector as a whole is expected to be pretty healthy at ~
15%. Concor, Bluedart and Gujarat Pipavav port EBITDA growth YoY
is expected to be strong owing to better operating leverage on back of
better cargo volume and growth in consignment due to festive
season. For Concor, Gateway and Gujarat Pipavav Port container
volumes are expected to register a healthy growth of ~9%, 18% and
18% respectively on YoY basis on account of growth in EXIM and
domestic volume. On PAT front, Gateway Distripark, Bluedart and
Gujarat Pipavav’s profit is expected to post growth of 13%, 38% and
21% on YoY basis buoyed by reviving economic scenario.

: Company specific view
Container
Corporation
As Major ports and railway container volumes grew at a CAGR of ~8% and 17% YoY
on YTD basis; we expect CONCOR volume to grow at 9% YoY for Q3FY15.
Consequently, revenue is expected to grow ~11% while EBITDA to grow 12% on YoY
basis. EBITDA margin to improve marginally by 25 bps YoY. PAT is expected at |232
crore
Gateway
Distriparks
JNPT port container volume grew~ 11% and Chennai port~5% YoY on YTD basis
thereby we expect GDL CFS & Rail volume to post growth of ~16% and 24%
respectively on YoY basis. Consequently, EBITDA margin is expected to improve 180
bps YoY and PAT for Q3FY15E is anticipated at | 36 crores
BlueDart We expect Bluedart revenue to grow 22.5% YoY and 6.5% sequentially to |619 crore.
EBITDA margin expected to expand 10 bps YoY to 9.1% while on QoQ basis it is
expected to expand nearly 40 bps on account of lower engine overhaul expense.
Consequently,PAT too is expected to grow to |32 crore in Q3FY15E
Gujarat Pipavav
Port
We expect GPPL revenue and container volume to grow 25% and 18% on YoY basis
respectively on account of lower base. EBITDA margin is expected to remain flattish
YoY whereas QoQ it is expected to grow 70 bps to 57% due to higher reefer volumes.
Further, PAT is expected at |93 crore
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

LINK
http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_ConsolidatedPreview_Q3FY15.pdf