13 January 2015

December inflation gives hopes but RBI will not oblige :: HDFC Securities

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The lower than expected retail inflation has given the some hopes to the markets. This is the reason why the SGX Nifty is quoting in the green this morning despite an overnight weakness in the U.S markets. The weakness in the US markets can be attributed to a cut in the Crude Oil forecast by Goldman Sachs.

The December Retail inflation came in at 5.0%. Though this was way higher than the November reading of 4.4%, it was a tad lower than expectations of 5.2%.

This has given hopes that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) could slash rates. However, the Mint Street is unlikely to oblige. The primary reason being, the world is negotiating a blind curve in the form of Greece elections and even before that a judgment by the apex German Court could derail the plans of the ECB to start buying bonds.

Europe is a developing story and the central bank would like to err on the side of the caution.
The rupee has appreciated to its highest level in a month, which gives RBI an elbow room to cut rates. However, the RBI is likely to hold it for the time being, allowing the storm to pass, before it picks up the scalpel.

A notable development on Monday was that the FIIs turned buyers after selling continuously for four sessions. The next resistance for the Nifty is 8378 and then 8446.

IIP growth jumped to 5 months high at 3.8% in November

Indias Industrial production growth jumped to 5 month high at 3.8% in the month of November as against street expectation of 2.2%, driven by manufacturing sector. In the previous month it was negative by 4.2%. Manufacturing sector growth, being the major contributor bounced back to 3% from -7.4% reported in October. Capital goods and intermediate segment also posted robust growth at 6.5% and 4.3% from -3.2% and -3.5% of last month respectively. However consumer goods production remained subdued at -2.2% during the month due to poor performance of durable segment.

IndusInd Bank to report its Q3 earnings

IndusInd Bank is likely to report 21% Y-o-Y growth in its Net Interest Income in Q3FY15, while Net Profit is expected to grow by 30% Y-o-Y at Rs 450 crore led by higher operating income and lower provisions. Asset quality is expected to remain stable.

Delhi Assembly poll on Feb 7, counting on 10th February

The Election Commission of India on Monday announced the Assembly Election in Delhi in a single phase on February 7 with the counting of votes scheduled for 10th February. The poll process will begin on Jan 14 when the elections would be notified. Last date of making nomination is January 21.

The Model Code of Conduct for elections to the 70-member Delhi legislative assembly, which has been under President's Rule since February last year, will come into force with immediate effect. In 2013, The BJP emerged as the largest party with 31 MLAs, followed by the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) which won 28 seats.

Crompton Greaves inks MoU with Arelis for hybrid microelectronics

Crompton Greaves has entered into a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with French enterprise Arelis, which specialises in design and manufacturing of high-tech electronic solutions. The two companies have agreed to explore manufacturing and supply of hybrid microelectronics for aerospace and defence energies, utilities and telecommunication sectors.
With technology transfer from Arelis on hybrid microelectronics, Crompton will be able to indigenously manufacture components and sub-assemblies for Indian and global markets.
The two parties have agreed on manufacture and supply of electrical, electronics and microelectronics components to key Indian aerospace and defence programmes as also to global original equipment manufacturers.

Crompton Greaves is already engaged in the manufacture and supply of several critical components such as motors and transformers for the defence sector. Crompton said the domestic defence market could provide an annual opportunity of about $ 2 billion.

Delhi HC asks Cipla to stop sale of respiratory drug

The high court had issued an injunction order in favour of global drug-giant Novartis, asking Cipla to stop selling the cheaper version of respiratory drug Onbrez. However, Cipla can sell the remaining stock, the court has ruled. Cipla, in its defence, had said there was not sufficient amount of the drug available in the market.

The court has told Cipla to apply for a compulsory licence on the drug if the company feels the market does not have adequate supply. After the launch of generic medicine, Cipla was selling it at Rs 130 for every 10 pills, while the same is being sold at Rs 677 every 10 pills by Novartis.
Novartis moved the high court in December last year, seeking to restrain Cipla from selling the generic version of Onbrez.

Cipla had pointed out that Novartis has had patents on the medicine since 2008, but instead of producing it in India has imported only a ?negligible quantity", leading to a shortage in the market.

Biocon completes 10% stake sale in Syngene

Biotechnology major Biocon today concluded sale of 10% stake in its research arm Syngene for Rs 380 crore to IVF Trustee Company Private Ltd.

In September, Biocon had announced that Mauritius-based private equity fund Silver Leaf Oak would acquire 10% stake in its research services arm Syngene International for Rs 380 crore from Biocon Research Ltd (BRL), a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Bangalore-based firm.
Post conclusion of the above, Biocon and BRL jointly hold 85.54% stake in Syngene

China exports surge 9.9% in December

China exports jumped 9.9 per cent in December from the previous year, official data showed on Tuesday. This data was much better than Reuters expectations of 6.8 per cent increase and 4.7 per cent in November.

Imports fell an annual 2.3 per cent versus a forecast drop of 7.4 per cent and following November's 6.7 per cent decline. This brings trade surplus to $49.1 billion as compared to expected $49.85 billion and $54.47 billion in November.

Wall Street Skids on Oil Again

Wall Street slipped once again on falling crude. Key U.S. indices were down Monday as Goldman Sachs ferociously slashed its earlier Crude target.

The merchant bank cuts its 3 month forecast for WTI crude by more than 40% to $41 a barrel from a previous estimate of $70. They now see WTI at $39 a barrel in six months and $65 a barrel in a year. Their previous price forecasts were $75 and $80, respectively.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil for February delivery fell $2.29, or 4.7%, to close at $46.07 a barrel after trading as low as $45.90. The close was the lowest since April 2009.

Brent North Sea crude oil for February, lost $2.68, or 5.4%, to $47.43 a barrel, its lowest finish since March 2009. Also hurting crude prices were pleas from Venezuela and Iran for OPEC to cut oil output that were ignored, the countries' delegates said Monday. OPEC's Gulf States, including Saudi Arabia, have been steadfast in their refusal to cut production lest the organization lose market share.

OPEC will gather in June for their next scheduled meeting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 96 points or 0.54% at 17,461.The bluechip Index was down 120 points at one stage.
 The S&P 500 too was on the back foot, falling 17  points or 0.82% to 2,028. Energy, technology and financials, which collectively comprise nearly half of the S&P 500, led the losses. Nine of 10 main sectors finished lower.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 39 points or 0.83% to 4,665. Nasdaq was the largest loser in  percentage terms. Even a string of M&A announcements in the biotechnology space could not buoy the index as Apple took a large bite.

Government bonds and Gold rallied. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 3 basis points to 1.91% as bond prices rose. Gold prices gained $17 to $1,233.
Industry giants Exxon Mobil, BP , Chevron and Royal Dutch Shell were significantly lower. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF  dropped 2.9%.

While eventually fueling increased consumer spending, an economic component that contributes two-thirds of U.S. GDP, economists fear crashing crude prices could have a negative impact on corporate earnings in the most recent quarter.

Aluminum producer Alcoa beat fourth-quarter estimates, reporting profits of 33 cents a share and revenue 15% higher year over year. Shares jumped more than 1% after market close.
S&P 500 companies are expected to report profit growth of 1.1% over the fourth quarter, its slowest pace of growth in more than 2 years. Energy companies are forecast to report quarterly earnings 19.1% lower than a year earlier after crude prices more than halved since a mid-summer peak.

Major banks will disclose their quarterly results this week with  JPMorgan   and Wells Fargo  doing it on Wednesday.  Bank of America  and Citigroup  on Thursday and Goldman Sachs  on Friday.
In other markets, the Stoxx Europe 600 index initially surged, but later trimmed gains and closed up 0.5% after reports that the ECB is planning a quantitative-easing program that could be based on contributions made by central banks to the ECB.

Shares of Foundation Medicine  nearly doubled to $46.74 after Roche Holding AG said it would pay $1.03 billion for up to a 56.3% stake in the maker of molecular-diagnostics tests. Roche will pay $50 a share, a 109% premium over Foundation?s closing price of $23.93 on Friday.
Shares of NPS Pharmaceuticals jumped 8.2% after Dublin-based Shire said it would buy the specialty drug maker in a $5.2 billion deal.

Tekmira Pharmaceuticals surged 57%. The company announced late Sunday that it will merge with OnCore Biopharma Inc. to develop a cure for hepatitis B. Tiffany & Co. shares fell 14%, after the jewelry retailer posted a 1% drop in holiday-period sales.

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