India Equity Research: Thomas Cook Q1CY12 - CONSOLIDATEDFIRST CUT

29 April 2012

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Thomas Cook Q1CY12 - CONSOLIDATEDFIRST CUT
Sales in-line with estimates but profits disappoint

Net sales grew by 5.6% Y-o-Y ro Rs867 mn in Q1CY12 from Rs821 mn driven by a stronger growth in the travel segment.
Higher advertising expenses led to a2.1% Y-o-Y decline in EBITDA to Rs78 mn.
Consequently, the EBITDA margins declined by 71bps Y-o-Y to 8.9% in Q1CY12.
Other income was lower at Rs20 mn compared to Rs88 mn in Q1CY11.
Owing to a flat EBITDA and lower other income, the profits for Thomas Cook in Q1CY12 stood at Rs8 mn, a decline of 83% Y-oY.

Quarterly Consolidated Results

Y/E Dec Rs mn	Mar-11	Jun-11	Sep-11	Dec-11	Mar-12
Net sales	821	1,061	1,021	906	867
Y-o-Y (%)	17.3	16.5	13.7	35.8	5.6
Q-o-Q (%)	23.0	29.3	(3.8)	(11.3)	(4.3)
Total expenditure	742	694	638	777	790
Advertisement Cost	88	29	12	71	123
% of sales	10.7	2.7	1.2	7.8	14.2
Y-o-Y (%)	30.2	(38.8)	(58.7)	15.3	40.8
Q-o-Q (%)	42.6	(66.8)	(57.6)	473.9	74.2
Staff cost	396	405	349	389	407
% of sales	48.3	38.2	34.2	42.9	47.0
Y-o-Y (%)	33.2	16.8	5.6	23.6	2.8
Q-o-Q (%)	25.9	2.2	(13.7)	11.4	4.6
Other expenses	258	260	276	317	259
% of sales	31.4	24.5	27.1	35.0	29.9
Y-o-Y (%)	26.5	16.2	7.4	34.4	0.5
Q-o-Q (%)	9.2	0.7	6.5	14.7	(18.4)
EBIDTA	79	368	383	129	78
EBIDTAM (%)	9.7	34.7	37.5	14.2	8.9
Y-o-Y (bps)	(908)	244	636	600	(71)
Y-o-Y (%)	(39.5)	25.3	37.0	134.7	(2.1)
Other Income	88	38	85	6	20
Depreciation	32	33	35	39	36
Y-o-Y (%)	6.5	(2.3)	(0.4)	9.2	11.3
EBIT	135	373	433	96	62
Interest	62	48	65	56	49
Y-o-Y (%)	32.6	7.5	14.2	(5.3)	(21.7)
PBT	73	326	367	40	14
Extra - ordinary items	0	0	0	0	0
Tax	26	111	117	(10)	6
Tax rate (%)	35.9	34.1	31.8	(24.8)	42.5
Add/(less): prior period adjustments	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Profit after tax	47	215	250	50	8
NPM (%)	5.7	20.2	24.5	5.6	0.9
Y-o-Y (%)	(40.4)	65.7	11.5	232.3	(83.2)
Q-o-Q (%)

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29 April 2012