23 April 2012

Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR) :23 April

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
Indian markets declined 0.78% on Friday after a steady climb for the previous four sessions of the week. Nifty once again resisted at the 50DMA of 5337 and witnessed a sharp slide post noon triggered by a sudden drop of in the index futures. However in the final hour the index recouped some of the losses to recover from an intraday low of 5245 to close just below 5300 at 5290. The breakout of the wedge pattern a day earlier is under question, however the bullish structure remains intact as the close has been above the falling trend line.Volumes have been discouraging low before we get into the April series derivatives settlement week and the market breadth dragged in favour of declines. There was a minor uptick in the volatility with India VIX climbing above 20. On the weekly charts though, Nifty has formed a 'bullish engulfing' / outside bar pattern following the retracement witnessed in the previous one. Momentum oscillators continue remain in a sideways trend albeit with bullish crossovers. Nifty continues to fail near the 50 day SMA of 5337 on previous three occasions and now becomes a natural resistance. On the downside, 5200/5180 is an important support from where rebounds have occurred, and in case of a breach lower, the 200 DMA sitting at 5139 will lend the necessary cushion. For the coming week, expect Nifty to continue grinding in a range of 5200 to 5340 until a breakout is achieved.

Barring the marginal gains in FMCG (+0.11%) and Auto (+0.08%) indexes, all other sectoral indices ended the day in the red. The top losers of the day were Cap Goods (-1.84%), Power (-1.72%) and Realty (-1.68%) shares. Among the broader market indices, Mid-cap index ended lower by 0.98% and the small-cap index fell by 0.47%.
Bullish Setups: MSIL, TTMT, CNXBANK, GNP, COAL, MM, PWGR
Bearish Setups: DLF, IDEA, BHEL, BPCL


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