23 April 2012

Buy DB Corp; Target :Rs 230 ::ICICI Securities, PDF link

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http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ICICIdirect_DBCorp_ManagementMeet_April2012.pdf



P r i n t   m e d i a   t o   g r o w   s t ro n g ;   u n l i k e   i n   W e s t …
We recently met the management of DB Corp. They indicated that the
growth drivers for print media in the country would be low newspaper
penetration, rising literacy levels, rising disposable income and low
internet penetration. The management attributed the strength of print
media in India to a different business model from the West with
subsidised cover prices and home delivery of newspapers. DB Corp,
being one of the top Hindi newspapers with a leadership position in
Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh (MPCG), Haryana, Chandigarh, having
considerable market share in Gujarat, Punjab and fast growing new
launches in Jharkhand and Maharashtra is well poised to outclass
industry growth.
Better content to fetch growth
DB Corp is the strong market leader in MPCG, Chandigarh and Haryana
and has a strong presence in Rajasthan and Gujarat. The new editions
launched by the company in Jharkhand and Maharashtra have also
received a very good response. The management attributed the success
to the quality of content of the  company. The company also boasts
highest readership in urban areas and Sec A&B making it more preferred
by advertisers. The management is confident of outclassing the estimate
of growth at 12-14% CAGR for print media in India.
V a l u a t i o n
FY12 has been characterised by low ad growth due to a slowing
economy. However, the long term outlook for Indian GDP and, hence, ad
revenue growth looks positive. We expect the company to post an ad
revenue growth of 12% in FY13. At the CMP of | 205, the stock is trading
at 19.1x FY12 EPS and 14.3x FY13 EPS. We have valued the stock at 16x
FY13 EPS to arrive at a target price of | 230 implying an upside potential
of 12%. We continue to rate the stock as BUY


Outlook & Valuation
The management has indicated that the print media in India would grow
robustly unlike the West due to a different business model from the West
with subsidised cover prices and home delivery of newspapers. DB Corp,
being one of the top Hindi newspapers with leadership position in
Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh (MPCG), Haryana, Chandigarh, No 2
position in Rajasthan and having considerable market share in Gujarat,
Punjab and fast growing new launches in Jharkhand and Maharashtra, is
well poised to outclass the estimated industry growth of 12-14%.
FY12 has been characterised by low ad growth due to a slowing
economy. However, the long term outlook for the Indian GDP and, hence,
ad revenue growth looks positive. We expect the company to post an ad
revenue  growth  of  12%  in  FY13. At  the  CMP  of  |  208, DB  Corp  is  trading
at 19.1x FY12 EPS and 14.3x FY13 EPS. We have valued the stock at 16x
FY13 EPS to arrive at a target price of | 230 implying an upside potential
of 12%. We continue to rate the stock as BUY.

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