30 April 2012

30 April: Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
Nifty ended absolutely flat on Friday following a listless derivative expiry the previous day; however it did witness sharp swings in either direction. The index opened on an optimistic note above 5200, but soon selling emerge at the 21 hourly EMA leading to a gradual decline to an intraday low of 5157, followed by a smart recovery in the final hour. Volumes were on the lower side, whereas the breadth continued to remain weak. The listless past few sessions have seen a drop in volatility to 17.6 levels. Nifty has managed to hold above the lower Bollinger band support of 5153 as well as the crucial 200 DMA at 5125. Importantly, the multiple support area of 5180/5200 is being defended well. Momentum has turned sideways with a slight negative bias, but is unlikely to drive prices significantly lower as long as the supports are held. Upside is clearly capped at the 20 DMA of 5256 and 5285 (falling trend line from the peak of 5630). Expect Nifty to be trapped in the tight range of 5285-5125 until a forceful breakout is achieved.

Sectoral trends were mixed with gains coming from the IT (+1.20%) index, and on the losing side were shares from FMCG (-0.84%), Metals (-0.83%) and Realty (-0.83%) indexes. Broader market Mid-cap and Small-cap indices ended lower by 0.11% and 0.42% respectively.
Bullish Setups: MSIL, TTMT, GNP, COAL, RIL, INFO, HNDL
Bearish Setups: DLF, BHEL, JPA, HMCL

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