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http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ICICIdirect_CementMonthly_March2012.pdf
February volumes expected to grow ~11% YoY…
Major cement players reported an aggregate increase of ~12% YoY (flat
on an MoM basis) in cement dispatches in February 2012 mainly on
account of a pick-up in demand from rural and semi urban housing and
other construction activities. Major demand pick-up is seen in the
northern, central and western regions. Among large players, Jaypee
outperformed other players with ~31% YoY growth in dispatches
followed by Shree Cement with ~21% YoY. Ambuja reported ~13% YoY
growth in dispatches while UltraTech and ACC reported ~6% and ~8%
YoY growth, respectively. Among smaller players, Mangalam Cement
outperformed with ~34% YoY growth while other players like JK
Lakshmi, JK Cement and Heidelberg Cement reported growth in the range
of 3-5% YoY.
In January 2011, overall industry dispatches grew ~11% YoY due to a low
base and marginal recovery in post festive demand. However, dispatches
in January 2012 increased ~3.2% on an MoM basis.
Cement prices up by ~| 5-10/bag MoM in February 2012
All-India average cement prices increased by ~| 5-10/bag in February
2012 and stood at ~| 279/bag. Prices in the northern, central and
southern regions have seen an increase of | 10-15/ bag during the month
while prices in the western and eastern regions have seen a rise of | 5-
10/bag during the month. According to our discussion with dealers,
cement prices are expected to remain firm or increase in the coming
months on account of passing on of costs hikes to end users.
Industry outlook
With expectations of ~11% YoY growth in February 2012 and flat YoY
growth in March 2012 (due to higher base), we expect all-India cement
consumption to end at 6.5% YoY growth in FY12E against 4.4% in FY11
and 10.2% in FY10. Dispatches grew ~7% during April 2011-January 2012
mainly led by ~15% YoY growth during November-January. Demand
picked up during the period mainly on account of a low base and increase
in offtake from construction activities post monsoon. However, demand
has been subdued during April-October 2011 and grew by just 3.5% YoY
as consumption from the housing and infrastructure segments remained
sluggish. The capacity utilisation rate is expected to decline further to 76%
in FY12E from 77% in FY11 and 87% in FY10. This is on account of ~ 19
MT additions in effective capacity as against incremental demand of ~14
MT during the period.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ICICIdirect_CementMonthly_March2012.pdf
February volumes expected to grow ~11% YoY…
Major cement players reported an aggregate increase of ~12% YoY (flat
on an MoM basis) in cement dispatches in February 2012 mainly on
account of a pick-up in demand from rural and semi urban housing and
other construction activities. Major demand pick-up is seen in the
northern, central and western regions. Among large players, Jaypee
outperformed other players with ~31% YoY growth in dispatches
followed by Shree Cement with ~21% YoY. Ambuja reported ~13% YoY
growth in dispatches while UltraTech and ACC reported ~6% and ~8%
YoY growth, respectively. Among smaller players, Mangalam Cement
outperformed with ~34% YoY growth while other players like JK
Lakshmi, JK Cement and Heidelberg Cement reported growth in the range
of 3-5% YoY.
In January 2011, overall industry dispatches grew ~11% YoY due to a low
base and marginal recovery in post festive demand. However, dispatches
in January 2012 increased ~3.2% on an MoM basis.
Cement prices up by ~| 5-10/bag MoM in February 2012
All-India average cement prices increased by ~| 5-10/bag in February
2012 and stood at ~| 279/bag. Prices in the northern, central and
southern regions have seen an increase of | 10-15/ bag during the month
while prices in the western and eastern regions have seen a rise of | 5-
10/bag during the month. According to our discussion with dealers,
cement prices are expected to remain firm or increase in the coming
months on account of passing on of costs hikes to end users.
Industry outlook
With expectations of ~11% YoY growth in February 2012 and flat YoY
growth in March 2012 (due to higher base), we expect all-India cement
consumption to end at 6.5% YoY growth in FY12E against 4.4% in FY11
and 10.2% in FY10. Dispatches grew ~7% during April 2011-January 2012
mainly led by ~15% YoY growth during November-January. Demand
picked up during the period mainly on account of a low base and increase
in offtake from construction activities post monsoon. However, demand
has been subdued during April-October 2011 and grew by just 3.5% YoY
as consumption from the housing and infrastructure segments remained
sluggish. The capacity utilisation rate is expected to decline further to 76%
in FY12E from 77% in FY11 and 87% in FY10. This is on account of ~ 19
MT additions in effective capacity as against incremental demand of ~14
MT during the period.
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