25 January 2012

RBI Policy Review - Monetary cycle turn rate front, apex bank will be closely monitoring the trend in core inflation and signs of fiscal consolidation in the Union Budget. We expect core inflation to ease from current levels and growth to remain subdued in coming quarters. Accordingly, RBI can move on repo rate as early as March 2012. s:: Edelweiss

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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its quarterly monetary policy review has cut CRR by 50 bps, left the repo rate unchanged and downgraded FY12 growth projection from 7.6% to 7%. An unusually high liquidity deficit and mounting downside risks to growth have prompted the move. By infusing primary liquidity, the CRR cut will help ease pressure on call rates. This along with improvement in business sentiments should help protect the downside to growth. However, rate cuts have to be accompanied by fiscal consolidation and policy action to revive the investment cycle. Going forward, RBI will ensure that liquidity deficit does not widen far beyond its comfort zone. For further actions, particularly on repo rate front, apex bank will be closely monitoring the trend in core inflation and signs of fiscal consolidation in the Union Budget.  We expect core inflation to ease from current levels and growth to remain subdued in coming quarters. Accordingly, RBI can move on repo rate as early as March 2012.        

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