30 January 2012

Hold UltraTech Cement; Target : Rs 1278 ::ICICI Securities

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H i g h e r   r e a l i s a t i o n s   b o o s t   e a r n i n g s …
UltraTech Cement reported net sales of | 4572 crore (up 23% YoY, 17%
QoQ) and EBITDA of | 965 crore (up 36% YoY, 66% QoQ), which were in
line with our respective estimates of | 4728 crore and |  904  crore. The
growth in earnings was on account  of an increase in sales volume &
blended realisation. Cement volumes  and realisations increased during
the quarter on the back of a pick-up in demand post the monsoon season.
EBITDA/tonne increased to | 931/tonne (our estimate: | 878/tonne) as the
increase in realisations negated the impact of an increase in costs.
ƒ Blended realisation up ~18% YoY, blended volume up ~4% YoY
Blended sales volumes increased ~4% YoY (~10% QoQ) to ~10.4
million tonnes (MT) as cement demand improved during the quarter
on account of a pick-up in construction activities post monsoon. The
blended realisation (accounting for grey and white cement including
clinker sales) increased ~18% YoY (~6% QoQ) to | 4413/tonne due
to an increase in cement prices during the quarter.
ƒ EBITDA expands to | 931/tonne on higher realisations
The total cost increased ~15% to | 3482/tonne, mainly on account
of  an  increase  in  fuel  &  freight  cost. However,  it  declined marginally
by ~1% QoQ due to a sequential decline in raw material cost,
employee and other costs. EBITDA/tonne increased ~31% YoY and
~51% QoQ to | 931/tonne.

V a l u a t i o n
At the CMP of | 1213, the stock is trading at 16.1x and 15.5x its FY12E and
FY13E earnings, respectively. The stock is trading at an EV/EBITDA of 9.0x
and 8.0x FY12E and FY13E EBITDA, respectively. On an EV/tonne basis,
the stock is trading at $131 and $133 its FY12E and FY13E capacities,
respectively.  We  have  valued  the  FY13E  installed  capacity  of  ~52  MT  at
$140/tonne, which is in line with the current replacement cost. We are
maintaining our HOLD rating on the stock with a revised target price of |
1278/share.

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