30 January 2012

GSFC Reco: ACCUMULATE CMP: Rs 388 Target Price: Rs 530 :Emkay,

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Result Update

GSFC

Reco: ACCUMULATE

CMP: Rs 388

Target Price: Rs 530

Results inline; maintain Accumulate
·      GSFC reported in line performance- sales of Rs 13bn, 6% yoy, APAT of Rs 1.7bn, -15% yoy. EBITDA margins declined 590bps yoy/410bps qoq to 19.8% due to lower chemical margins

·      Fertiliser EBIT margin at 15.3% (est 13%) was ahead of est while chemical margin at 26.6% (est 28%)was lower than est. Decline in chemical margins is in line with decline in spreads

·      Caprolactam-benzene spread bounced back to $1710/mt in Jan'12 compared to low of $1480/mt in Dec’11. However, est remain unchanged as we had factored spreads of $1700/mt

·      Earnings have started decelerating from Q3FY12 due to decline in spreads. We maintain Accum with TP of Rs 530 despite attractive valuations due to declining trend in spread

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