31 January 2012

BHEL Reco: HOLD CMP: Rs 274 Target Price: Rs 275 :Emkay,

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BHEL

Reco: HOLD

CMP: Rs 274

Target Price: Rs 275

Order cancellation at fore; Retain HOLD
·      Orders worth Rs58.5 bn cancelled. 9MFY12 order inflows dismal at 133 bn. Investor concerns strengthened on order backlog quality, revenue & earning visibility

·      Q3FY12 performance meets expectations – (1) Revenue +19% yoy to Rs107 bn (2) EBITDA margins down 360 bps yoy (3) APAT +2% yoy to Rs14.3 bn. Debtors rise sharply by 16% qoq

·      Core business lacks growth triggers amidst multi-fold challenges. Forecast order backlog to decline from to Rs134 bn and earnings to decline by 20% in FY14E to Rs21.2

·      Maintain BHEL as top AVOID in Emkay ECG universe. Maintain negative bias, though, PER de-rating from 23X to 13X could be floor. Retain HOLD with revised target of Rs275

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