11 January 2012

11 Jan: Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
The five session lull was aptly rewarded with a strong 2.25% rally on the index that helped it close above the 50 daily EMA at 4839. Nifty opened with a bullish gap tracing the positive cues across Asian indices and steadily built on the gains to close near the high of the day. Nifty has achieved a breakout of the falling trend line from the peak of 5400 as well as a break of the minor triangle pattern on hourly charts. On candlestick charts Nifty has formed a large bodied bullish candle with minor wicks indicating further bullish potential. The much anticipated up move has come in continuation of the preceding up move from the low of 4588 that is likely to continue towards 4900 / 4921. Trading interest improved with a rise in volumes and the market breadth remained firmly in favor of advances with an A/D ratio of 5:1. Even the Nifty breadth was strong at 15:1. Momentum oscillators that were trading with a buy crossover have strengthened their position and indicate further upward strength. While our anticipated target of 4850 has been achieved; the price action points to an extension of the up move towards the ‘bearish gap’ area at 4921 with minor resistances at 4880 and 4900. Immediate downside support has moved higher towards 4750.

All the sectoral indices ended the day in the green. The rally was led by Realty (+4.30%), Cap Goods (+3.56%) and Banking (+3.17%). The defensive IT (0.59%), Healthcare (+1%) and FMCG (+1.25%) lagged the benchmark index. Broader market Mid-cap and Small-cap indices performed in line with their frontline peers with gains of 2.24% and 2.63% respectively.

Bullish Setups: IRB, COAL, PIHC, HDFCB, DLF, TPWR
Bearish Setups: YES, UTCEM, WPRO

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