17 October 2011

India Consumer and Retail- Off the Shelf ::JPMorgan

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Key developments in Indian Consumer space over past month:
 New Product Launches. 1) Nestle India introduced two key new products
over the past month – a) premium Dark Chocolate priced at Rs20, and b)
Noodletz “open and eat” noodle under Maggi brand, 2) Marico forayed into
masstige skincare segment with the launch of Parachute Advansed Body Lotion
taking on brands like Vaseline, Ponds (HUL) and Boroplus (Emami). Marico
also expanded its breakfast cereal portfolio with the introduction of new
variants like Saffola Masala Oats, 3) HUL launched a new water purifier
Pureit Marvella RO priced at Rs. 13,500 expanding its existing Pureit range to
more premium end, 4) Beer segment saw new brand additions with SAB
Miller and Carlsberg launching new products to expand marketshare in the
fast growing beer market. SAB Miller launched Miller High Life in the
premium segment and Foster's Strong while Carlsberg introduced the strong
beer variant Carlsberg Elephant.
 Price Hikes. 1) Nestle India undertook price increases amounting to 4-10%
for some SKUs of its powder milk and baby foods products, 2) Dabur
continued to raise prices and has increased prices for some SKUs of Real juice
by 3% and Red Toothpaste by 3-5%. Company also reduced grammage for
Hajmola Digestives by 33%, 3) ITC raised price for its brand Navy Cut by
10%, 4) Colgate raised prices for toothpowder by 4%, and 4) Emami increased
prices for Fair and Handsome skin cream by ~5%.
 Monsoon Watch. Monsoon this year has been quite favorable with good spatial
distribution across the country. Cumulative rainfall over June1-Sep 28th is 2%
above normal with normal rains across most of the India (ex- some parts of
North Eastern region). Rainfall during this period was excess /normal in 33 and
deficient / scanty in 3 met sub-divisions. Latest area sown under all kharif
crops has been up 3%y/y.
 Key commodity trends. Crude and palm oil declined by 11% and 10% m/m
respectively, though rupee depreciation has muted the benefit by some extent.
Domestic wheat prices were relatively flat m/m while sugar prices were up
2%. Domestic LAB and HDPE prices were up 3%m/m.
 Performance and Valuation. Over the past month, BSE FMCG Index declined
4.8%, outperforming Sensex by 0.9%. GSK Consumer and HUL were better
performers, up 1% and up 2%, respectively.

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