05 September 2011

Maruti Suzuki - August sales decline 13% yoy; we expect near-term headwinds to persist, reiterate Neutral ::JPMorgan,

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 Sales  growth  remains  sedate:  Maruti  volumes  declined  13%  yoy  to
91,442  units, driven  by  rising  competitive  intensity  amidst  slowing
industry growth and production constraints at the Manesar plant due to
employee unrest. This is the second month of declining sales.
 Domestic sales decline sharply (down -17% yoy) due to weakness in
mass  market  segment: Domestic  car  market  sales  declined across
segments. The Mini  segment  (M800, A-Star, Alto, Wagon R)  declined
18% yoy, the Compact segment  (Swift, Estilo, Ritz)  declined 27%  yoy
due to production constraints at Manesar, the entry-level sedan segment
(Dzire) declined 7% yoy, and Vans (Omni, Eeco) declined 12% yoy.
 Exports witnessed healthy growth: +19% yoy growth (after months of
declining sales) aided by entry into new markets.
 Manesar  labor  unrest  resurfaces: Trouble  at Maruti’s Manesar  plant
has  resurfaced  as  production  was  halted  again  this  week  with
management  asking workers to  sign  a “good  conduct”  bond, which  has
led to protests – workers continue to insist on their demand of forming a
separate union at the Manesar facility. Media (Business standard) reports
that the workers have got more support as other employee unions (from
neighbouring  plants)  have  given  their  support  and  protests  have
intensified. Production  had  already  come  down  to  less  than  half  at  this
facility  vs.  a  normal  daily  production  of  1,200  cars.  Maruti  produces
Swift, A-Star hatchbacks, and SX4 at its Manesar plant.
 Over the month, Honda took price cuts of ~20% on the Jazz ahead of
the launch  of the  small  car Brio, indicating that the  new  model  will  be
priced competitively. The Jazz pricing now starts at Rs550,000.
 Over  the  month,  the  stock  (-10%  mom)  has  underperformed  the
broader market (-8% mom) as the industry growth trend remains sedate.
We  maintain  our  Neutral  rating  on  Maruti  in  view  of  near-term
headwinds given rising competitive intensity and slowing growth. Maruti
is  likely  to be  under  considerable  pressure  to  frequently  refresh  its
product portfolio as well as enhance its technology.

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