30 August 2011

India Banks- Draft bank license guidelines: Well balanced:: JPMorgan

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RBI announced  the  draft  guidelines  for  new  bank  licenses  today.
Corporates  have  been  allowed  to  bid  for  licenses  vs  recent  speculation
that they might not be eligible. NBFCs have also been allowed to bid, but
the  proposed  holding  structure  could  lead  to  some  challenges.  This  is
negative for  brokers  (Edelweiss/Religare), PSU FIs  (PFC/REC)  and  real
estate  aspirants  as  they  have  been  excluded.  Although  draft  guidelines
have been announced, the process of granting licenses will be a long one.
 Corporates eligible: RBI has made a significant break from the past and
allowed  corporates to  apply  for licenses. The  corporate  ownership  will
have to  be funneled through an NOHC (holding company) regulated by
the RBI. We see this as positive for most corporate aspirants (mentioned
below). The guidelines are  silent on whether the new applicants can buy
existing banks, but if allowed would be  very positive  for  small  private
banks as they could become attractive targets.
 NBFCs  allowed to  bid, but  holding  structure  could  pose  some
challenges:  NBFCs  can  also  apply for  licenses  but, given  the  holding
restrictions proposed, NBFCs would have to merge all existing financing
businesses into the new bank. This could be positive for SHTF, MMFS
and  other  NBFCs, but  multiple  financing  businesses  of  the  Shriram
group may create some challenges.
 Real estate, brokers and PSUs not eligible:  While real estate exclusion
was largely  expected, there has been  some  debate  on  PSUs and brokers
eligibility.  We  see  this  as  negative  for  brokers  such  as
Edelweiss/Religare and also for PSU FIs such as PFC/REC.
 Other highlights: (1) Minimum shareholding of 40% for first five years.
To be scaled down to 20%/15% in 10/12 years. (2) 49% FII ownership in
the  first  five  years,  after  which  it  can  go  to  74%. (3)  For corporates,
lending to promoter-related single entity and group exposure restricted to
10% and 20% of networth. (3) Stiff financial inclusion targets proposed
with 25% of branches to be opened in rural areas without banks.

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