16 August 2011

GVK Power & Infrastructur:: Strong Jun-q results, but concerns on outlook remain:: JPMorgan,

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GVK reported PAT of Rs589M up 76% yoy and ahead of our estimate.
Earnings beat was driven by better performance of the expressway and
profitability in the power segment. We think GVK’s quest for long-term
growth and fuel security, though legitimate from the company’s
perspective, raises risk for equity investors substantially over the medium
term and will be centre of investor focus as opposed to earnings.
 Airports show strong traffic and profit growth. Share of profit from
associates was up 47% yoy to Rs337M (57% of Jun-q consol PAT) as
MIAL and BIAL reported strong results. Mumbai airport had 7% yoy
growth in passenger traffic while EBITDA margins improved sharply by
460bps to 65.3% due to opex savings translating into PAT growth of
44%. Bangalore airport showed 11% yoy growth in passenger traffic, a
450bps improvement in EBITDA margin and 50% yoy growth in PAT.
 As expected PLF for the gas-based plants improved compared to the
last quarter. PLFs for the three power plants increased to 80-93%
compared to 4Q (66-73%) as gas availability improved, but still below
last year’s level. Power PAT was up 23% yoy. Tariffs were up 33% yoy
to Rs3.3/kwh, while on a per unit basis fuel cost was up by 50%.
Backing down sourcing of expensive power by SEBs and fuel
availability issues pose a risk to PLFs of gas-based power plants in the
near to medium term in our view.
 Reduced opex drives PAT. GJKEPL had stable traffic growth of 3%
yoy in the Jun-q and 11% yoy growth in revenue. However EBITDA
margin improved sharply to 72% from 50% last year and 58% last
quarter as O&M costs declined.

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