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Telecoms
India Mobile net addition momentum has slowed in 1QFY12. Bharti Airtel at
average 2.4m (from 3.2m in 4QFY11), Reliance Communication at average
2.7m and Idea Cellular at average 2.3m. We estimate revenue per minute to
remain stable in the current quarter. On financial results, Bharti’s 1QFY12
results will not be comparable on a YoY basis following the full quarter
consolidation of Africa operations. In 1QFY11 Africa was consolidated for only
22 days
For Bharti we expect margin improvement of 65bpsQoQ led by Africa and
Ebitda to grow 5%QoQ. On a consolidated basis for 1QFY12 Bharti PAT will be
up 10%QoQ albiet down 8%YoY. Our Bharti forecasts are consolidated for
Africa operations.
We expect RCom to deliver 2%QoQ revenue growth and 42%QoQ PAT growth
coming off a weak base in 4QFY11. Idea revenue growth too is expected to be
robust (+5%QoQ). However higher interest cost and depreciation with end of
3G capitalisation will cause PAT to be 34%QoQ and 10%YoY lower.
Our Tata Communications estimates are stand-alone and high depreciation
and interests will again hit 1QFY12 profits.
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