31 July 2011

Results: ITC, ONGC, MRCO, IDFC, HUL, JSPL, SUNP, PNB ::Deutsche bank,

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ITC: Cigarette volume growth drives earnings. Buy [Abhay Laijawala]
ITC reported strong Q1FY12 earnings, 5% ahead of our estimates. Cigarette EBIT
growth of 21% (vs 16% DBe) and 8% cigarette volume growth (vs 5% DBe) were
the key drivers of better than expected results.
ONGC: Q1 result: Lower than estimate on dry well writeoffs [Harshad Katkar]
ONGC's Q1FY12 net profit of INR40.9bn (+12% YoY, +47% QoQ) was lower than
our and consensus estimate due to higher than expected dry well write-offs as
two ultra-deepwater wells (costing cUS$200-250m) drilled  in the Andaman
Offshore block were unsuccessful.
Marico Limited: Well oiled for strong growth; Buy [Abhay Shanbhag]
We maintain a Buy on Marico and increase our target price to INR178 from
INR162; our earnings estimates are 18%  above consensus. Over the past three
rather difficult quarters, Marico clocked the highest volume growth despite taking
the highest price increases, demonstrating its strong pricing power.
HUL: Weak operational numbers masked by lower ad spend; Hold [Abhay
Laijawala]
HUL reported weak 1QFY12 earnings 6% lower than our estimates. Revenue was
up 14.8% (vs 13.6% DBe) driven by volume growth of 8%. However, as against
our expectation of a 300 bps cut in Ad to Sales ratio, HUL cut ad spend by 417 bps
and therefore the decline in EBITDA margin was lower at just 15 bps.
IDFC: Challenging times ahead for lending & non-lending businesses [Manish
Shukla]
The infrastructure sector continues to face various challenges like land acquisition,
environmental clearances, and fuel linkages. This coupled with the high interest
environment means that sanctions and disbursals for IDFC would likely slow. For
1QFY12 Gross approvals were down 56% YoY and down 7% QoQ and gross
disbursements were down 52% YoY and down 29% QoQ.
Jindal Steel & Power: Temporary hiccups, but strong growth momentum
ahead [Manish Saxena]
JSPL's Q1 results look disappointing, especially as net income fell 4% yoy to INR
9.2bn (4% below our expectations).  But we recommend buying into the
weakness, as (1) earnings growth momentum of 20-25% yoy is likely from
2QFY12; (2) captive power units are likely to show a sharp spike in earnings in
2HFY12 following the commissioning of captive coal blocks and higher utilizations.
Sun Pharma: Weaker than expected interims, despite in-line Taro interims
[Abhay Shanbhag]
PNB: NIM surprise positively, but may not be sustainable [Manish Shukla]
Titan Industries Ltd: Tanishq glitters; Maintain Buy [Abhay Laijawala]
ACC: Gradually regaining lost market share [Chockalingam Narayanan]
Ambuja Cements Ltd: Inventory pile up – a rising overhang [Chockalingam
Narayanan]
Tata Motors Ltd: JLR guiding for strong volume momentum in 2HFY12
[Srinivas Rao]

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