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Media
Our talks with a cross section of the industry reveal softness in the advertising
market in 1QFY12.
In 1QFY12 results, we expect our media coverage universe to register a 7%
QoQ drop in adspend and 8% QoQ decline in Ebitda with Zee the worst
affected by the twin impact of muted adspend and sports losses.
Due to seasonality and higher newsprint prices print media results need to be
compared on YoY basis. Jagran Prakashan is estimated to report a 5%YoY
increase in revenues, and a 27%YoY decrease in profits in 1QFY12. HT Media
is expected to report a 15%YoY increase in revenues and a 7%YoY increase in
quarter profits.
The standout among the media companies’ quarter results will be Dish TV,
which should report a 51%YoY increase in revenues and a 2x increase in
Ebitda led by its direct to home subscribers reaching 11 million.
In a seasonally weak quarter, Zee also faces the challenge of losses from its
own India West Indies cricket series broadcast between early-June and July
consisting of five one days and three test matches, which met with muted
response after the mega Cricket events. We estimate revenues to increase a
mere 4%YoY mainly due to the adverse impact of the mega criclet events
during the quarter and build in sports losses ahead of management estimates.
While for Sun TV revenues are expected to grow 2%YoY and profits 7%YoY in
1QFY12
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