18 July 2011

Goldman Sachs: 18 July: India Weekly Kickstart

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India Weekly Kickstart
Portfolio Strategy Research
NIFTY 1.4% lower wow on macro & micro, internal & external factors
 Info.Tech. (CNXIT: -5.6%) fared the worst while Pharma (CNXPHRM Index: +1.5%) outperformed wow.
 Muted foreign inflows of US$ 257mn but DIIs continued to sell (US$ 126mn), as of the close of July 13, 2011.
 Commodities climbed 2.6% wow. Silver surged 8.3% and Natural Gas rebounded 4.9% wow.
 June WPI print came in at 9.4% yoy vs. consensus expectations of 9.7%; impact of fuel price hike yet to feed through.
Overview
Indian equities dropped back in the red (-1.4%) in
a week that saw key macro prints amid the
1QFY12 earnings season. Many factors weighed
on Indian equities this week. May IP growth of
5.6% was below the revised 5.8% yoy (from 6.3%
yoy) growth in Apr. Upward revisions to WPI
continued with April’s headline number revised
up to 9.7% yoy from 8.7%. Prospects of weak
margins, cautious guidance from Infosys and
renewed concerns of contagion in the Euro-zone
debt crisis dampened investors’ sentiment further.
NIFTY price performance
NIFTY fell 1.4%  this week & has lost 9% ytd
Source: NSE, DataStream, GS Global ECS Research.
Foreign and domestic flows
Foreign buying has totaled US$ 1.9bn ytd while DIIs
have bought US$ 2.7bn as of the close of July 13,
2011.
Earnings sentiment
MSCI India Info. Tech. had the weakest EPS
sentiment (-33%) wow.
Commodities
Commodities surged 2.6% led by Silver (+8.3%) &
Natural Gas (+4.9%) wow. Gold gained 4.3% on
the back of investors’ flight to quality.
Focus page
Monsoon Monitor: 3% below Normal.
Earnings Announcements
Wipro (Jul 20), Yes Bank & Kotak Mahindra Bank
(Jul 21), Axis bank (Jul 22

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