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1QFY2012 Result Preview
GAIL
GAIL is expected to announce its 1QFY2012 results. The company’s performance on a
qoq basis is likely to be driven by higher transmission tariff and petchem margins.
Transmission volumes for the quarter are likely to stay flat qoq. On the top-line front, we
expect the company to report top-line growth of 19.8% yoy to `8,500cr. On the
bottom-line front, we expect GAIL to report growth of 6.0% yoy to `940cr. We maintain
our Buy view on GAIL with a target price of `539.
HCL Tech
HCL Tech is slated to announce its 4QFY2011 numbers. We expect the company to post
revenue of US$971mn, with 6.2% qoq growth, led by volume growth of 4.4%. In rupee
terms, revenue is expected to grow by 4.9% qoq to `4340cr. EBITDA margin is expected to
increase by 131bp qoq to 18.6% due to better operating leverage coupled with strong
growth. PAT is expected to come in at `516cr. The company is one of our preferred picks
in the IT sector. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `591.
Bank of Baroda
Bank of Baroda is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2012 results. We expect the bank to
report healthy NII growth of 29.7% yoy to `2,411cr. Non-interest income is expected to
grow at a slower pace of 9.8% yoy on account of lower treasury gains. Overall operating
income growth is expected to come in at healthy 24.8% yoy; a relatively lower 18.9% yoy
rise in operating expenses is expected to lead to an improvement in cost-to-income ratio to
36.5%. Higher provisions are expected to lead to relatively moderate net profit growth of
16.5% yoy to `1,001cr. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 1.2x FY2013E ABV.
We maintain our Accumulate recommendation on the stock with a target price of `1,017.
UltraTech Cement
UltraTech Cement is expected to announce its 1QFY2012 results. The company’s top line
is expected to grow by 127.9% yoy, primarily on account of higher dispatches due to
UltraTech-Samruddhi merger. However, OPM is expected to decline by 128bp yoy to
22.5%. The company’s bottom line is expected to grow by 91.2% yoy to `464cr.
We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.
Canara Bank
Canara Bank is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2012 results. We expect the bank to
report healthy NII growth of 19.8% yoy to `2,071cr. Non-interest income is expected to
decline by 6.6% yoy on account of lower treasury gains. Overall operating income growth
is expected to come in at moderate 12.0% yoy, however a relatively lower 9.6% yoy rise in
operating expenses is expected to lead to an improvement in cost-to-income ratio to
38.9%. Higher provisions are expected to lead to flat net profit at `1,018cr. At the CMP,
the stock is trading at 1.0x FY2013E ABV. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.
Lupin
For 1QFY2012, Lupin is expected to register sales growth of 17.0% yoy. The company's
OPM is expected to contract by 188bp yoy to 18.1%. Net profit is expected to increase by
3.8% yoy. Overall, the company is expected to post sales and net profit of `1,543cr and
`203.8cr, respectively. At the CMP, the stock trades at 20.2x FY2012E and 15.4x FY2013E
earnings. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a target price of `593.
Dabur
Dabur is slated to announce its 1QFY2012 numbers. For the quarter, we expect Dabur to
post robust 16.5% yoy growth in its consolidated top line to `1,185.3cr, driven by steady
growth in its core brands and new product launches. The bottom line is expected to register
strong growth of 26.3% yoy to `109.7cr, aided by top-line growth and margin expansion
of 154bp to 16.8%. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.
Marico
Marico is expected to announce its 1QFY2012 results. For the quarter, we expect Marico to
report 15.1% yoy growth in its consolidated top line to `909cr, driven by steady growth in
its core brands, Parachute and Saffola. Marico’s earnings for the quarter are expected to
grow by 6.4% yoy to `78.4cr, driven largely by top-line growth. We maintain our Reduce
rating on the stock with a target price of `146.
UCO Bank
UCO Bank is expected to announce a weak set of results for 1QFY2012. We expect the
bank to report a 4.6% yoy decline in its NII to `894cr. Overall operating income growth is
expected to be muted at 2.0% yoy. Due to muted operating income growth and higher
opex growth, the cost-to-income ratio is expected to be at 49.0% compared to 42.7% in
1QFY2011. The pre-provision profit of the bank is expected to decline by 9.3% yoy to
`586cr. Net profit is expected to decline by 23.9% yoy to `198cr. At the CMP, the stock is
trading at 0.9x FY2013E ABV. We recommend an Accumulate view on the stock.
BGR Energy Systems
BGR Energy Systems (BGR) is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2012 results. We expect the
top line to decline by 15% yoy to `771cr. On the operating front, we expect the company
to witness a 44bp yoy margin contraction to around 11%. Net profit is also expected to
decline by 33.3% yoy to `40cr. The stock is currently trading at 10.1x FY2012E and 9.3x
FY2013E earnings. We will revisit our estimates post the conference call with the
management. Currently, the stock is under review.
JK Lakshmi Cement
JK Lakshmi Cement is expected to announce its 1QFY2012 results. We expect the
company’s top line to remain flat at `323cr. OPM is expected to decline by 59bp yoy to
18% due to higher raw-material and freight costs. The bottom line is expected to increase
by 2.7% yoy to `17cr. At the CMP, the stock is trading at EV/tonne of US$37, based on
FY2013E capacity. We maintain our Buy view on the stock with a target price of `57 due to
its attractive valuations.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
1QFY2012 Result Preview
GAIL
GAIL is expected to announce its 1QFY2012 results. The company’s performance on a
qoq basis is likely to be driven by higher transmission tariff and petchem margins.
Transmission volumes for the quarter are likely to stay flat qoq. On the top-line front, we
expect the company to report top-line growth of 19.8% yoy to `8,500cr. On the
bottom-line front, we expect GAIL to report growth of 6.0% yoy to `940cr. We maintain
our Buy view on GAIL with a target price of `539.
HCL Tech
HCL Tech is slated to announce its 4QFY2011 numbers. We expect the company to post
revenue of US$971mn, with 6.2% qoq growth, led by volume growth of 4.4%. In rupee
terms, revenue is expected to grow by 4.9% qoq to `4340cr. EBITDA margin is expected to
increase by 131bp qoq to 18.6% due to better operating leverage coupled with strong
growth. PAT is expected to come in at `516cr. The company is one of our preferred picks
in the IT sector. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `591.
Bank of Baroda
Bank of Baroda is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2012 results. We expect the bank to
report healthy NII growth of 29.7% yoy to `2,411cr. Non-interest income is expected to
grow at a slower pace of 9.8% yoy on account of lower treasury gains. Overall operating
income growth is expected to come in at healthy 24.8% yoy; a relatively lower 18.9% yoy
rise in operating expenses is expected to lead to an improvement in cost-to-income ratio to
36.5%. Higher provisions are expected to lead to relatively moderate net profit growth of
16.5% yoy to `1,001cr. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 1.2x FY2013E ABV.
We maintain our Accumulate recommendation on the stock with a target price of `1,017.
UltraTech Cement
UltraTech Cement is expected to announce its 1QFY2012 results. The company’s top line
is expected to grow by 127.9% yoy, primarily on account of higher dispatches due to
UltraTech-Samruddhi merger. However, OPM is expected to decline by 128bp yoy to
22.5%. The company’s bottom line is expected to grow by 91.2% yoy to `464cr.
We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.
Canara Bank
Canara Bank is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2012 results. We expect the bank to
report healthy NII growth of 19.8% yoy to `2,071cr. Non-interest income is expected to
decline by 6.6% yoy on account of lower treasury gains. Overall operating income growth
is expected to come in at moderate 12.0% yoy, however a relatively lower 9.6% yoy rise in
operating expenses is expected to lead to an improvement in cost-to-income ratio to
38.9%. Higher provisions are expected to lead to flat net profit at `1,018cr. At the CMP,
the stock is trading at 1.0x FY2013E ABV. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.
Lupin
For 1QFY2012, Lupin is expected to register sales growth of 17.0% yoy. The company's
OPM is expected to contract by 188bp yoy to 18.1%. Net profit is expected to increase by
3.8% yoy. Overall, the company is expected to post sales and net profit of `1,543cr and
`203.8cr, respectively. At the CMP, the stock trades at 20.2x FY2012E and 15.4x FY2013E
earnings. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a target price of `593.
Dabur
Dabur is slated to announce its 1QFY2012 numbers. For the quarter, we expect Dabur to
post robust 16.5% yoy growth in its consolidated top line to `1,185.3cr, driven by steady
growth in its core brands and new product launches. The bottom line is expected to register
strong growth of 26.3% yoy to `109.7cr, aided by top-line growth and margin expansion
of 154bp to 16.8%. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.
Marico
Marico is expected to announce its 1QFY2012 results. For the quarter, we expect Marico to
report 15.1% yoy growth in its consolidated top line to `909cr, driven by steady growth in
its core brands, Parachute and Saffola. Marico’s earnings for the quarter are expected to
grow by 6.4% yoy to `78.4cr, driven largely by top-line growth. We maintain our Reduce
rating on the stock with a target price of `146.
UCO Bank
UCO Bank is expected to announce a weak set of results for 1QFY2012. We expect the
bank to report a 4.6% yoy decline in its NII to `894cr. Overall operating income growth is
expected to be muted at 2.0% yoy. Due to muted operating income growth and higher
opex growth, the cost-to-income ratio is expected to be at 49.0% compared to 42.7% in
1QFY2011. The pre-provision profit of the bank is expected to decline by 9.3% yoy to
`586cr. Net profit is expected to decline by 23.9% yoy to `198cr. At the CMP, the stock is
trading at 0.9x FY2013E ABV. We recommend an Accumulate view on the stock.
BGR Energy Systems
BGR Energy Systems (BGR) is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2012 results. We expect the
top line to decline by 15% yoy to `771cr. On the operating front, we expect the company
to witness a 44bp yoy margin contraction to around 11%. Net profit is also expected to
decline by 33.3% yoy to `40cr. The stock is currently trading at 10.1x FY2012E and 9.3x
FY2013E earnings. We will revisit our estimates post the conference call with the
management. Currently, the stock is under review.
JK Lakshmi Cement
JK Lakshmi Cement is expected to announce its 1QFY2012 results. We expect the
company’s top line to remain flat at `323cr. OPM is expected to decline by 59bp yoy to
18% due to higher raw-material and freight costs. The bottom line is expected to increase
by 2.7% yoy to `17cr. At the CMP, the stock is trading at EV/tonne of US$37, based on
FY2013E capacity. We maintain our Buy view on the stock with a target price of `57 due to
its attractive valuations.
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