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Inventory update: iron ore up, steel
draw downs slowing
Inventory rising at the mills
We continue to monitor the high frequency data on China’s iron ore and steel
inventory data. The latest figures point to a rise in volumes held in the stock
yards of 50 smaller mills, both in absolute terms and on a days-of-use basis
(see Figures 1 and 2). Total inventory volumes were up 9% compared with
the last data point two weeks ago, while the implied daily rate of consumption
of iron ore fell 2% over the same period (Fig 3).
Port stocks also ticking up
Port stocks also ticked up, rising 0.5% WoW last week and 1.5% WoW the
week before. Landed port stocks now stand at 84mt on our numbers, still
below the peak of 88mt at the end of February. Preliminary trade data
released on May 10 will give an indication of whether purchasing activity over
April was successful in bringing higher volumes into the country.
Steel production remained robust through April
In contrast to softening in the rate of consumption of iron ore recorded in the
steel mill survey, CISA’s high frequency production estimates for the final ten
days of April imply a rise in output to 708mtpa, up from 695mtpa in the
preceding period (Fig 4). While the accuracy of these estimates is
questionable, they have often been indicative of the direction of production.
Steel inventory still falling but the pace is slowing
Reported steel inventory fell 1.6%WoW last week, marking a slowdown in the
pace of the drawdown from the 2.5-2.8% WoW declines seen over the last
seven weeks (Fig 5). Rebar and HRC inventory both fell by around
0.5%WoW, with larger declines recoded from wire rod and plate.
Prices softened over the week
Rebar prices fell 2.2%WoW last week as the Shanghai futures prices sold off
aggressively in last week’s commodity price plunge. HRC prices were also
down, falling 0.4%WoW to RMB4885/t ($644/t ex VAT) (Fig 6).
Iron ore prices were down 1.6% WoW over the last week, with TSI reporting
transactions for 62%Fe spot iron ore falling 1.6% WoW to $179.7/t.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Inventory update: iron ore up, steel
draw downs slowing
Inventory rising at the mills
We continue to monitor the high frequency data on China’s iron ore and steel
inventory data. The latest figures point to a rise in volumes held in the stock
yards of 50 smaller mills, both in absolute terms and on a days-of-use basis
(see Figures 1 and 2). Total inventory volumes were up 9% compared with
the last data point two weeks ago, while the implied daily rate of consumption
of iron ore fell 2% over the same period (Fig 3).
Port stocks also ticking up
Port stocks also ticked up, rising 0.5% WoW last week and 1.5% WoW the
week before. Landed port stocks now stand at 84mt on our numbers, still
below the peak of 88mt at the end of February. Preliminary trade data
released on May 10 will give an indication of whether purchasing activity over
April was successful in bringing higher volumes into the country.
Steel production remained robust through April
In contrast to softening in the rate of consumption of iron ore recorded in the
steel mill survey, CISA’s high frequency production estimates for the final ten
days of April imply a rise in output to 708mtpa, up from 695mtpa in the
preceding period (Fig 4). While the accuracy of these estimates is
questionable, they have often been indicative of the direction of production.
Steel inventory still falling but the pace is slowing
Reported steel inventory fell 1.6%WoW last week, marking a slowdown in the
pace of the drawdown from the 2.5-2.8% WoW declines seen over the last
seven weeks (Fig 5). Rebar and HRC inventory both fell by around
0.5%WoW, with larger declines recoded from wire rod and plate.
Prices softened over the week
Rebar prices fell 2.2%WoW last week as the Shanghai futures prices sold off
aggressively in last week’s commodity price plunge. HRC prices were also
down, falling 0.4%WoW to RMB4885/t ($644/t ex VAT) (Fig 6).
Iron ore prices were down 1.6% WoW over the last week, with TSI reporting
transactions for 62%Fe spot iron ore falling 1.6% WoW to $179.7/t.
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