India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
India oil monthly: Jan 2011
„ Demand growth continues at sluggish pace
Based on data from Reuters and PPAC, India’s domestic oil product demand rose
1.6% YoY to 2.82mbpd in Nov’10. YTD demand growth stood at 1.4%, showing
no improvement over demand growth till last month.
„ Gasoline, diesel & LPG grow 16.7%, 3.8% & 10.1% YoY in November’10
Gasoline sales rose 16.7%, highest growth in 2010, helped by a 24% YoY jump in
passenger car sales in the month. We expect growth in gasoline sales to soften in
December after the retail prices were steeply raised by 5.6%. Growth in diesel
sales eased to 3.8% (4.0% in Oct) as the extended monsoon season cut demand
from farms and industry. Jet fuel sales grew by 10.3% YoY. However, demand for
kerosene & heavy distillates declined 3.8% and 25%, resp. Naphtha demand rose
16.5% YoY in line with our expectation, after the recent downward trend.
„ In previous month of October oil demand was up 1.5% YoY
Oil demand rose 1.5% YoY in October 2010 as compared to an increase of 1.6% in
November. In October, YoY gasoline and diesel demand had risen 7.1% and 4.0%
as compared to 16.7% and 3.8%, respectively in October. So far in FY11, out of
total oil demand, diesel and gasoline have accounted for 43% & 10%, respectively.
„ We expect demand growth to be slower in 2HFY11
We expect consumer demand to drive a 7-9% growth in gasoline sales in FY11.
While we believe diesel demand will grow at 5-6% on the back of agricultural and
industrial growth. UBS expects quarterly GDP growth in 9-10% range in H2. We
expect a CAGR of 8% pa for gasoline and 5% pa for diesel over FY10-14 period.
No comments:
Post a Comment