25 January 2011

Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR) Jan 25, 2011

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
§  Nifty traded with a positive trend in yesterday’s session breaking above the 5750 mark continuing with the higher high, higher low sequence. Technically the gains have been on below average volumes due to the range bound nature of the market. In yesterday’s session Nifty managed to trade and close above the 21 and 50 hourly EMAs, along with a positive crossover in hourly MACD adding to weight to bullish evidence. Additionally the daily RSI and Stochastics have rolled bullish, while the daily MACD points lower. Market breadth improved in favor of advancing stocks; while Nifty 50 stocks A/D ratio was good at 1.5:1. Nifty is trading in close proximity to the 200-SDMA at 5616 as it awaits the crucial Monetary Policy decision as well as the monthly derivatives settlement on Thursday which will decide the fate of market direction. Volatility should be on the rise which could mean a choppy trade is expected. The 5600-5616 band is likely to act as a bullish pivot whereas the 5835-5850 resistance band (21-DEMA) will provide selling opportunity to bears. Only on a convincing break of either level, the market is likely to take direction.
§  Most sectoral indices traded with a positive bias, and the Banking shares dominated yesterday’s session with average gains of ~2.50%. Cap Goods and Realty witnessed decent buying activity. Pharma and Oil & Gas shares decline marginally. Short-term bullish setup on CNXBANK is approaching the target range of 11360 / 11475. Bullish Setups: AXSB, SBI, UNBK, LT, SHRS, MM Bearish Setups: HH, DRRD, ACEM, WPRO
§  EUR gains from strength to strength after closing above the 200-DEMA on a weekly basis targeting 1.38 in the coming week. DJIA has broken past the 11850 resistance comfortably leading to an extension of the gains toward the 78.6% retracement of the 2008 bear market at 12550. Corresponding SPX target is at 1310
§  Interesting chart setupsPLNG, IDBI, HZ, HH, ACEM, DRRD

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