Watch Nifty
Ø Nifty, after a slight reaction, soared in the last two sessions. It appears to be on its way to its target of 6250 ( +/- 50 pts.). At a time when the indices are at the cusp of surpassing its earlier highs to reach all time heights, we thought it would be appropriate to get the attention of investors to our prognosis way back in
Ø February 2009, when there was all round gloom and pessimism :
Ø On 01/02/2009, when Nifty was around 2685, our observation was :
o We believe that the market will correct further down to 2500 ( with a 70% probability) and to around 2000 levels ( with a probability of 30-40%). It will be around this level when there would be all-round despondency with the general feeling that the market would go down to 1000 levels. It would precisely be at these times that the indices would consolidate & display nascent strength and keep moving up to go above the highs of 6300 in Nifty & 21000 in the sensex. The bull run would however be spread over three to four years. The downside to 2500 or so might extend upto the end of 2009. It is also possible ( 25% chance) that Nifty would not go below 2700 levels and consolidate around the current levels till OCt-Dec 2009 before moving up.
o To summarise, the correction could be upto 2500-2000 levels & time-wise may last till Sep-Dec 2009 after which one can be prepared for the bull run. Predicting the bottom with accuracy is always difficult and hence long-term investors can start investing systematically with the full realisation that there may be a downside risk of about 500 points in the Nifty and the upside potential huge at around 3500 points. The risk-reward ratio is skewed in favour of buyers at the present juncture and long-term investors have to wet their feet now.
Ø Again, on 09/03/2009, when Nifty was 2620, we had observed :
o Long term investors can buy frontline scrips like SBI, Infy, NTPC, HDFC, HDFC Bank, BHEL for atleast 30-40% of their portfolio. Again, if Nifty reacts further to 2000 levels further accumulation is advised. We had advised earlier on 02/02/09 for Nifty's directional calls.
Ø While we had expected the recovery to be in place over 3-4 years, the recovery has been swift and our target achieved in less than two years. Getting back to the present, we expect that in this current run ( with 70% probability), Nifty could go upto 6900 (+/- 200 pts.), subject to corrections of 2-3% along the way. On achieving this target of around 6700-6900, one can expect a correction of greater magnitude ( say 8-10%) to set in.
Ø Nifty's resistance for 04/10 is likely around 6200 ( +/- 10 pts.)
No comments:
Post a Comment