Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details Voltas Q2FY11E Result Estimates
Post strong performance in Q1FY11, expect Voltas to report subdued performance during the quarter. This is primarily attributed to low order inflow in 9MFY10.
n Expect revenue growth to be lower at 9% YoY to Rs12 bn – due to mere 7% YoY growth in EMP division. EPS and UCP division growth to be healthy at 17% and 20% YoY respectively.
n Expect EBITDA to decline by 10% YoY to Rs1.1 bn due to 200 bps YoY drop in EBITDA margins to 9.5%.
n APAT growth to be muted at 6% YoY – primarily due to lower tax incidence.
Management outlook on international order inflows will be tracked closely.
TRF Q2FY11E Result Estimates
Standalone estimates:
n We expect TRF to report healthy performance in Q2FY11E led by robust order backlog at Rs20 bn.
n Expect revenues to grow by 23% YoY to Rs1.6 bn – led by Products (+20% yoy to Rs1258 mn) and Projects (+12% yoy to Rs580 mn).
n Expect EBITDA growth at 20% YoY to Rs193 mn with 30 bps YoY drop in margins to 11.8%.
n Expect APAT growth at 22% YoY to Rs108 mn.
Consolidated estimates
n We expect TRF’s auto components business to continue to report strong on yoy basis – but flat growth on qoq basis during the quarter.
n We expect revenues of Rs2.6 bn (+39% YoY), EBITDA at Rs214 mn (+45% YoY) and APAT at Rs97 mn(-3% YoY).
We will keenly await Management guidance & outlook on automotive business – The management expected to share guidance on the automotive components business for the first time with investors.
Elecon acquires business in gears & gearboxes for EV of Rs1.3 bn
Elecon Engineering (EEL) has acquired certain Europe based businesses for gears and gearboxes from David Brown Gear Systems for a total enterprise value of Rs1.3 bn (GBP 18.4 mn). EEL has made the acquisitions through its 100% subsidiary (step-down) Elecon USA Transmission Ltd. The details of the acquisitions are as follows:
We await further details on the acquisition to judge the impact on revenues and earnings. EEL has debt of Rs5.2 bn (as on Mar’10) with a DER of 1.5X.
At CMP the stock is trading at 13.8X FY11E and 10.1X FY12E earnings of Rs6.9 and Rs9.4 per share respectively. We have a BUY rating on the stock.
Bharat Bijlee Q2FY11E Result Estimates (Results on 27th Oct)
Healthy volume growth across segments - transformers, projects and motors to drive revenue growth of 13% yoy. The EBITDA margins are expected to remain flat yoy at 12.2% (20bps decline). PAT is expected to grow 4% YoY to Rs129mn (up 121% qoq). Key things to watch - (1) performance of motors business, (2) order inflows and realizations trend in transformers, (3) pick up in projects business and (4) overall margins.
United Phosphorus (Conso) Q2FY11 Results Expectations - Net Sales Rs 13.1 bn, APAT Rs 1.5 bn
United Phosphorus is expected to declare their results today i.e. October 26th, 2010.
We estimate global recovery in demand and improved weather conditions to reflect by way of 13% YoY growth in revenues to Rs 13.1 bn. We expect India and North America to grow by 20% each followed by 15% growth in Rest of the World while Europe is likely to remain weak with 5% decline in revenues. EBITDA margins are expected to expand by 250 bps YoY to 19.5% leading to a 30% growth in EBITDA to Rs 2.6 bn. We estimate APAT at Rs 1.5 bn, +12% YoY with an EPS of Rs 3.4. Previous year PAT is adjusted for forex loss of Rs 300 mn loss. The company reported profit of the Rs 1 bn last year.
Deepak Fertilisers Q2FY11 Results Expectation : Net Sales Rs 3.9 bn, PAT Rs 469 mn
Deepak Fertilisers is expected to report their Q2FY11 results today i.e. October 26th, 2010.
Higher sale volumes for complex fertilisers are likely to result in 16% YoY increase in fertiliser revenues to Rs 1.7 bn. Chemical revenues are expected to increase by 7% to Rs 2.24 bn. Consequently, overall revenues are expected to increase by 10% YoY to Rs 3.9 bn. We estimate fertiliser and chemical segment margins to increase by 300 bps each to 8% and 30% respectively resulting in 250 bps expansion in overall margins to 22.8% and a consequent 23% increase in EBITDA to Rs 886 mn. We estimate APAT of Rs 469 mn, +29% YoY resulting in AEPS of Rs 5.3 as against Rs 4.1 in Q2FY10.
United Bank Of India Q2FY11 results in line with expectations; slippages surpirse positively
n UNTDB’s Q2FY11 earnings were in line with our estimates with NII at Rs5.3bn and PAT at Rs1.1bn
n Other income growth strong at 26%qoq to Rs1.5bn; The bank has used robust other income for provisions/write offs.
n The slippages have surprised positively at Rs2bn (Rs2.5bn in Q1FY11, our exp – Rs2.5bn). The NPAs have remained largely stable during the quarter. PCR at 50%, 71.7% as per RBI norm
n Valuations at 1.7x FY11E/1.3x FY12E ABV. We will review our rating and TP. However, retain our positive bias
NII grew inline with estimates…
UNTDB NII for Q2FY11 grew by 48% yoy to Rs5.3bn inline with expectations. The NII growth was driven by 13% yoy (3.7% qoq) growth in advances and stable NIMs at 2.7%.
Titan Q210 Performance Is Ahead Of Estimates...
n Revenue growth of 33.9% yoy to Rs15.4 bn - Ahead Of Estimates
n Ebidta growth at 60.5% yoy to Rs1.7 bn - Ahead Of Estimates
n APAT growth of 64.6% yoy to Rs1.3 bn - Ahead Of Estimates
n At Segment Level
n Watches grew by 19.7% yoy to Rs3.5 bn and Ebit grew by 169% yoy to Rs763 mn
n Jewellery grew by 36.7% yoy to Rs11.2 bn and Ebit grew by 365% yoy to Rs998 mn
n Other grew by 80.6% yoy to Rs560 mn and Ebit loss reduced to Rs47 mn
n Current earnings estimates at Rs93/Share and Rs121/Share for FY11E and FY12E respectively. Probability of 10% earnings upgrade to FY11E and FY12E earnings.
Dr Reddy's Lab Q2FY11 Result Update; Higher traction from FY12 onwards; Accumulate; Target: Rs1763
n Muted performance in US and decline in PSAI segment impacted top line performance in Q2FY11; significant ramp-up in niche products to drive sales from H2FY11 onwards
n Branded formulation markets of India and CIS reported strong traction
n 361 bps YoY expansion in EBITDA margins at 18.6% and 33% growth in recurring PAT led by 592bps expansion in gross margins and lower tax provisioning
n Revise base business earnings for FY11E, FY12E and introduce NPV for limited competition opportunities; Maintain Accumulate with a revised price target of Rs1763
Emkaynomics Economy Update; October 08, 2010; Fortnightly round up of key banking and economic indicators
n The growth in the non food credit has moved upwards to 20.1% for the week ended Oct. 8, 2010 and deposit mobilization inched up to 15.1%
n The CD ratio has moved marginally downwards to 72.4% for the week ended Oct. 8, 2010
n Money supply growth has increased to 15.9% and the money multiplier has grown to 5.12
n Call money rates as on Oct. 25, 2010 have risen by 86bps from last fortnight to 6.4%, with a brief move to 6.66% last week
n The spread between call money and reverse repo rates has widened as on Oct. 25, 2010 and stands at 140 bps
n Excess liquidity is absent in the system and stood at `-18.5 bn. The repo balances stood at ~ `236 bn. and reverse repo at ~ `11 bn. for the week ended Oct. 8, 2010
n The spread between the long and short end OIS has eased and stand at 30bps as opposed to 58 bps last fortnight
Bajaj Auto Q2FY11 Result Update; Volume upgrade continues, raise TP to Rs 1,710; Accumulate
n EBIDTA at Rs 9.1bn (5% above est.) due to higher than expected topline (Rs 43.4bn vs est. Rs 41.3bn). APAT at Rs 6.9bn (6.5% above est.)
n FY11 export target raised to 1.15mn units (our est. 1.2mn units). 70% of FY12 current exports est. are hedged. Price hike in Oct’10 only for dom. market
n Upgrade FY11E/FY12E vol. by 2.1% /3.2% to 3.9mn/ 4.7mn units. Upgrade FY11E/FY12E EPS by 4.0%/5.1% to Rs 87.1/Rs 110.3 . 20%+ margins are sustainable subject to product mix
n Upgrade TP by 4.9% to Rs 1,710 (15.5x FY12 EPS). Maintain ACCUMULATE rating.
Ashok Leyland Q2FY11 Result Update; Mixed Bag, Maintain HOLD; Target: Rs 76
n EBIDTA at Rs 3.1bn was in line with our est. despite lower than expected net sales. Margins at 11.3% were above our est. of 10.8%. APAT at Rs 1.7bn marginally below est.
n Hike prices by 3%/6% for BSII/BSIII vehicles over the 4% hike taken in H1FY11. Currently, it has inventory of ~9000 units
n Raises FY11 volume guidance to 95000 units (our est. is 92692 units). Upgrade FY11E EPS by 4.2% to Rs 5.2, retain FY12E EPS at Rs 6.4.
n Retain our TP of Rs 76 and our HOLD rating. M&HCV demand momentum to peak out, expect concerns with volume growth for FY12 from 3Q/4Q FY11
TVS Motor Q2FY11 Result Update; In line, lower rating to REDUCE; Target: Rs 72
n EBIDTA margin at 6.7 below est. of 6.9%, despite higher net sales (Rs 16.2 bn against est. of Rs15.8bn) due to higher staff cost and other exp. APAT at Rs 549mn against est. of 526mn.
n Scooter/Mopeds/3-Wheelers continue to drive volumes, motorcycle sales continue to disappoint. Export traction to remain strong, expect average run rate of ~20k unit’s pm.
n Upgrade FY11E/FY12E volumes by 6.4%/8.5% to 2.0/2.3 units due to higher scooters/mopeds/exports sales. Upgrade FY11E/FY12E standalone EPS by 4.5%/7.4% to Rs 4.1/Rs6.0
n Upgrade TP to Rs 72 (up 7.5%) - 12x FY12 standalone EPS. Downgrade rating to REDUCE
Torrent Pharma Q2FY11 Result Update; On Track; Maintain Buy; Target: Rs650
n Revenue growth is above our estimates on account of 22% increase in domestic formulations and higher than expected growth in the international business
n EBITDA margins declined (as estimated) on account of 468bps contraction in gross margins, higher employee cost and other expenses
n Higher than expected rise in depreciation and interest impacted PAT (Rs762mn vs. est. of Rs817mn)
n Maintain earnings and Buy rating with a target price of Rs650
Hindustan Unilever Q2FY11 Result Update; No Catalysts, Downgrade to REDUCE; Target: Rs 275
n HUL reported spectacular volume growth of 14% in Q211, back of 11% in Q111 and Q410
n Q211 performance stood marginally ahead of expectation – revenue growth 9.7% yoy to Rs42.8 bn and APAT decline of 5.2% yoy to Rs5.2 bn
n Q211 performance for key segments on expected lines, except personal products that recorded 330 bps yoy and 180 bps qoq reduction in EBIT margins
n Absence of strong earnings upgrade catalysts and recent stock performance – downgrade HUL from ‘HOLD’ to ‘REDUCE’ with revised target price of Rs275/Share
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