04 October 2010

Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR) : Oct 4th

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)

§  Nifty is marching ahead on a week on week basis, as it lodges a fifth consecutive weekly positive close. The intermediate resistance of 6115 has been pierced and conquered with ease. On Friday’s session the index gained from strength to strength from the start of the session. The momentum oscillators are moving higher in sync with the price action. Overall market breadth turned back in favor of advances. Nifty breadth was robust at 11:1. The index has now reached a sweet spot where it’s only a stone’s throw away from its all-time high of 6357. The absence of any major resistance, coupled with strong momentum and price action is likely to take the index to 6357 and beyond that to 6500 (channel target) in the medium term. Short-term trend reversal is pegged below 5930.

§  The market gain came on the back of a strong rally in Realty, Metal and Cap Goods stocks. Market laggards were from the FMCG and Oil & gas space. Bank stocks made a late attempt to move higher and look forward for the current week to rally. Realty counters are expected to continue the strength. Power stocks have setup a good base to move up in the current leg. Bullish Setups: DLFU, NTPC, KMB, TPCL, BHEL

§  All global equity indices witnessed positive a week, coming into the historically volatile month of October. We reiterate that although the short term developments will challenge the immediate upside, but the medium term picture looks healthy. DXY has closed at the lowest point of the week, and is poised to test 76. Crude has managed a close above the symmetrical triangle that has a target of $87. Copper is approaching a multiple resistance cluster of $4.00 on Comex.

§  Interesting chart setups: DLF, KMB, UT, BHEL, IFCI

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